Aug 1, 25sim 97
588
3(H)78
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3ATL
ATL
16-11
8885
DAL
8-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 88–85. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Naz Hillmon
F · #00
20.2Game score
21
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
16.7Game score
21
Pts
2
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL16-11
8885
DAL8-20
ATL16-11DAL8-20
ATL
16-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +10 | |
| 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 35 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 29 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
| 37 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 8 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | |
| 30 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -16 | |
| Team | 88 | 32 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 12 | ||
DAL
8-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 25 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 35 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 35 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 31 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 14 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 25 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 85 | 24 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 8 | ||
| DNP: T. McCowan, G. Berger | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
50
26
Ast
21
Season series
ATL wins series 3-1
May 24DAL75@ATL83
DAL75@ATL83Jun 25ATL55@DAL68
ATL55@DAL68Jul 31ATL88@DAL85today
ATL88@DAL85todayAug 29DAL78@ATL100
DAL78@ATL100Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 41pp · 4th Quarter · 2.6
ATLN. Hillmon
FGame leader · 30 min
21 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 2 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
ATL beat DAL 88-85. N. Hillmon led with 21 PTS, 1 REB, 3 AST. Naz Hillmon's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (41pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
31 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST
GS 29
DALstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 13 REB · 16 AST
GS 48
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL3rd Quarter · 9:02 · 44-44
+26pp→ 51% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL4th Quarter · 2:56 · 79-77
+23pp→ 63% WP
Naz Hillmon · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
ATL4th Quarter · 2.6 · 88-85
+41pp→ 97% WP
Naz Hillmon · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Te-Hina Paopao assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 26 | 18 | 18 | 26 | 88 |
| DAL | 21 | 19 | 24 | 21 | 85 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · DAL won 2
26
21
Q1
Gray 11
Geiselsoder 6
18
19
Q2
Hillmon 3
Bueckers 5
18
24
Q3
Jones 8
Carrington 6
26
21
Q4
Hillmon 12
Bueckers 9
ATL
DAL
Shooting comparison
ATL
DAL
52%
33-63
FG
50%
34-68
42%
11-26
3PT
50%
11-22
85%
11-13
FT
75%
6-8
Play-by-play · 344 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 88·DAL 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 88·DAL 85
- Q4·0.4
Wings offensive team rebound
ATL 88·DAL 85
−0.5pp
- Q4·1.4
Paige Bueckers misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 88·DAL 85
−2pp
- Q4·2.6
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
· ·
ATL 88·DAL 85
- Q4·2.6
Aziaha James enters the game for DiJonai Carrington
·
ATL 88·DAL 85
- Q4·2.6
Wings Full timeout
ATL 88·DAL 85
- Q4·2.6
Naz Hillmon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Te-Hina Paopao assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 88·DAL 85
−41pp
- Q4·21.2
Brionna Jones enters the game for Nia Coffey
· ·
ATL 85·DAL 85
- Q4·21.2
Li Yueru enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
ATL 85·DAL 85
- Q4·21.2
Dream Full timeout
ATL 85·DAL 85
- Q4·21.2
Arike Ogunbowale makes 16-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
ATL 85·DAL 85
+11pp
- Q4·34.8
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
· ·
ATL 85·DAL 83
- Q4·34.8
Wings Full timeout
ATL 85·DAL 83
- Q4·34.8
Te-Hina Paopao makes 2-foot layup (Brionna Jones assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 85·DAL 83
−11pp
- Q4·46.4
Te-Hina Paopao defensive rebound
ATL 83·DAL 83
−3pp
- Q4·48.1
Arike Ogunbowale misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 83·DAL 83
−7pp
- Q4·1:05
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
ATL 83·DAL 83
+2pp
- Q4·1:09
Allisha Gray misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ATL 83·DAL 83
+21pp
- Q4·1:14
Myisha Hines-Allen personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 83·DAL 83
−19pp
- Q4·1:26
Brionna Jones defensive rebound
·
ATL 83·DAL 83
−2pp
- Q4·1:29
Paige Bueckers misses 20-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 83·DAL 83
−6pp
- Q4·1:41
Te-Hina Paopao makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
ATL 83·DAL 83
−10pp
- Q4·2:01
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 1 of 1
ATL 81·DAL 83
+4pp
- Q4·2:01
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Luisa Geiselsoder
·
ATL 81·DAL 82
- Q4·2:01
Te-Hina Paopao shooting foul
ATL 81·DAL 82
+4pp
- Q4·2:01
Paige Bueckers makes 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 81·DAL 82
+14pp
- Q4·2:15
Brionna Jones makes layup (Naz Hillmon assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 81·DAL 80
−12pp
- Q4·2:36
Paige Bueckers makes 25-foot three pointer (DiJonai Carrington assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 79·DAL 80
+6pp
- Q4·2:40
Brionna Jones personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 79·DAL 77
+17pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
33-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-68
52
FG %
50
11-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-22
11-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
6-8
26
Assists
21
12
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
DAL
43.6%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
31.4%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
83.9
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
19.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3