May 18, 25sim 98
1459
11(H)81
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6WSH
IND
2-3
7783
WSH
3-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Indiana Fever, 83–77.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
DeWanna Bonner
F · #25
19.2Game score
21
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
11.4Game score
16
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND2-3
7783
WSH3-3
IND2-3WSH3-3
IND
2-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 17 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | |
| 29 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | |
| 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | |
| 32 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 31 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 25 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -7 | |
| 14 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| Team | 77 | 33 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 17 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, C. Clark | ||||||||
WSH
3-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 11 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | +3 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 23 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
| 34 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| 12 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
| 20 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +9 | |
| 15 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| Team | 83 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 18 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
43
15
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 28IND77@WSH83today
IND77@WSH83todayJun 3WSH76@IND85
WSH76@IND85Aug 15WSH88@IND84
WSH88@IND84Sep 7IND94@WSH65
IND94@WSH65Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 8:29
INDD. Bonner
FGame leader · 25 min
21 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 23 min
16 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
WSH beat IND 83-77. K. Iriafen led with 16 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. WSH outscored the other side 25-17 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST
GS 27
Bench(4)
29 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST
GS 22
WSHstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 30 REB · 9 AST
GS 35
Bench(5)
29 PTS · 11 REB · 11 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND2nd Quarter · 1:36 · 39-37
+11pp→ 60% WP
Damiris Dantas · makes 6-foot two point shot (Lexie Hull assists)
WSH3rd Quarter · 10:00 · 40-44
+9pp→ 60% WP
Stefanie Dolson · enters the game for Emily Engstler
IND4th Quarter · 8:29 · 57-62
+11pp→ 31% WP
Jade Melbourne · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 23 | 17 | 13 | 24 | 77 |
| WSH | 19 | 25 | 16 | 23 | 83 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · WSH won 2
23
19
Q1
Howard 8
Austin 6
17
25
Q2
Mitchell 6
Austin 9
13
16
Q3
Boston 6
Sykes 6
24
23
Q4
Bonner 12
Sykes 9
IND
WSH
Shooting comparison
IND
WSH
40%
25-63
FG
43%
30-69
24%
5-21
3PT
36%
4-11
81%
22-27
FT
76%
19-25
Play-by-play · 439 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 77·WSH 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 77·WSH 83
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Fever] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
IND 77·WSH 83
- Q4·0.0
DeWanna Bonner makes 32-foot three point jumper (Sydney Colson assists)
·
IND 77·WSH 83
- Q4·9.1
Makayla Timpson defensive rebound
IND 74·WSH 83
- Q4·12.0
Jade Melbourne misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 74·WSH 83
- Q4·12.0
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 74·WSH 83
- Q4·12.0
Sydney Colson personal foul
IND 74·WSH 82
- Q4·21.0
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 74·WSH 82
- Q4·21.0
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 73·WSH 82
- Q4·21.0
Sonia Citron shooting foul
IND 72·WSH 82
- Q4·21.0
Brittney Sykes bad pass (DeWanna Bonner steals)
·
IND 72·WSH 82
- Q4·22.0
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 72·WSH 82
- Q4·22.0
Sydney Colson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 71·WSH 82
- Q4·22.0
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 71·WSH 82
- Q4·22.0
DeWanna Bonner makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 71·WSH 82
- Q4·22.0
Kiki Iriafen shooting foul
IND 70·WSH 82
- Q4·26.1
DeWanna Bonner enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
IND 70·WSH 82
- Q4·26.1
Fever Full timeout
IND 70·WSH 82
- Q4·26.1
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 70·WSH 82
- Q4·26.1
Natasha Howard enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
IND 70·WSH 81
- Q4·26.1
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 70·WSH 81
- Q4·26.1
Lexie Hull personal foul
IND 70·WSH 80
- Q4·28.1
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
IND 70·WSH 80
- Q4·29.1
Kelsey Mitchell misses layup
IND 70·WSH 80
- Q4·42.2
Fever timeout
IND 70·WSH 80
- Q4·42.2
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 70·WSH 80
- Q4·42.2
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 70·WSH 79
- Q4·42.2
Sophie Cunningham personal foul
IND 70·WSH 78
+0.5pp
- Q4·43.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup
IND 70·WSH 78
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
25-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-69
40
FG %
43
5-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-11
22-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-25
15
Assists
20
17
Turnovers
18
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
WSH
45.4%
FG%
44.7
45.7%
32.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
83.4
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6