Jun 25, 25sim 96
2055
3(H)68
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9DAL
PHX
12-6
8998
DAL
6-13
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings held off Phoenix Mercury, 98–89.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
19.7Game score
33
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
DAL · top performer
Aziaha James
G · #10
20.8Game score
28
Pts
6
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX12-6
8998
DAL6-13
PHX12-6DAL6-13
PHX
12-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -16 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 17 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 32 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -13 | |
| 27 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 22 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | |
| 26 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -13 | |
| 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| Team | 89 | 26 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: M. Musa, L. Held | ||||||||
DAL
6-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 33 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +14 | |
| 33 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 38 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 35 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| 17 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +6 | |
| Team | 98 | 38 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 15 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
48
21
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 12DAL80@PHX93
DAL80@PHX93Jul 4PHX89@DAL98today
PHX89@DAL98todayJul 8DAL72@PHX102
DAL72@PHX102Sep 12PHX76@DAL97
PHX76@DAL97Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:34
PHXK. Copper
GGame leader · 27 min30+ point game
33 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
DALA. James
GGame leader · 38 min
28 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
DAL beat PHX 98-89. A. James paced them with 28 PTS, 6 REB, 6 AST. DAL outscored the other side 32-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 18 REB · 19 AST
GS 67
Bench(5)
7 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
GS 4
DALstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST
GS 67
Bench(3)
14 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
GS 9
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX3rd Quarter · 5:34 · 61-67
+9pp→ 23% WP
Kahleah Copper · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 20 | 23 | 28 | 18 | 89 |
| DAL | 32 | 29 | 21 | 16 | 98 |
Period scoring
PHX won 2 · DAL won 2
20
32
Q1
Sabally 6
Bueckers 8
23
29
Q2
Copper 12
James 13
28
21
Q3
Copper 12
Quinerly 13
18
16
Q4
Copper 5
Quinerly 4
PHX
DAL
Shooting comparison
PHX
DAL
42%
28-67
FG
48%
32-67
35%
8-23
3PT
36%
8-22
81%
25-31
FT
84%
26-31
Play-by-play · 433 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 89·DAL 98
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 89·DAL 98
- Q4·2.1
shot clock turnover
PHX 89·DAL 98
- Q4·26.2
Kalani Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 89·DAL 98
- Q4·26.2
Kalani Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 88·DAL 98
- Q4·26.2
Li Yueru personal foul
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·27.1
Kalani Brown defensive rebound
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·31.1
Aziaha James misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·46.2
Kathryn Westbeld vs. Li Yueru (Luisa Geiselsoder gains possession)
· ·
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·46.2
Liatu King enters the game for Paige Bueckers
·
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·46.2
Li Yueru offensive rebound
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·49.1
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·1:09
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·1:12
Kiana Williams misses driving floating jump shot
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·1:21
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·1:23
Natasha Mack blocks Aziaha James 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot
·
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·1:36
Kitija Laksa makes 1-foot two point shot (Kalani Brown assists)
·
PHX 87·DAL 98
- Q4·1:48
Kalani Brown enters the game for Sami Whitcomb
·
PHX 85·DAL 98
- Q4·1:48
Natasha Mack enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
PHX 85·DAL 98
- Q4·1:48
Kiana Williams enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
PHX 85·DAL 98
- Q4·1:48
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for Kahleah Copper
·
PHX 85·DAL 98
- Q4·1:48
Kitija Laksa enters the game for Satou Sabally
·
PHX 85·DAL 98
+2pp
- Q4·1:48
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 85·DAL 98
- Q4·1:48
JJ Quinerly makes two point shot (Paige Bueckers assists)
·
PHX 85·DAL 98
- Q4·1:49
Monique Akoa Makani lost ball turnover (Paige Bueckers steals)
·
PHX 85·DAL 96
- Q4·1:53
Monique Akoa Makani vs. Paige Bueckers (JJ Quinerly gains possession)
· ·
PHX 85·DAL 96
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:06
Li Yueru makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 85·DAL 96
- Q4·2:06
Wings offensive team rebound
PHX 85·DAL 95
- Q4·2:06
Li Yueru misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 85·DAL 95
- Q4·2:06
Satou Sabally shooting foul
PHX 85·DAL 95
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
28-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-67
42
FG %
48
8-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-22
25-31
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-31
21
Assists
20
10
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 12 players in cohort- Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
DAL
42.3%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
31.4%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
83.7
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
12.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3