Jun 15, 25sim 97
1470
129689(H)76
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+11GS
IND
6-6
7788
GS
6-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Indiana Fever, 88–77.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
15.7Game score
17
Pts
12
Reb
1
Ast
GS · top performer
Tiffany Hayes
G · #15
12.5Game score
14
Pts
3
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND6-6
7788
GS6-6
IND6-6GS6-6
IND
6-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 30 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 33 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 33 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 34 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 24 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | |
| Team | 77 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 16 | ||
GS
6-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 32 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +10 | |
| 20 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 24 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +25 | |
| 19 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +13 | |
| 32 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +20 | |
| 20 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| Team | 88 | 32 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 7 | ||
| DNP: A. Powers, B. Hall, K. Chen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
43
20
Ast
18
Season series
GS wins series 3-0
Jun 20IND77@GS88today
IND77@GS88todayJul 9GS80@IND61
GS80@IND61Sep 1IND63@GS75
IND63@GS75Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 3:21
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 30 min
17 PTS · 12 REB · 1 AST
GST. Hayes
GGame leader · 32 min
14 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
GS beat IND 88-77. T. Hayes led with 14 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. GS outscored the other side 33-18 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 28 REB · 17 AST
GS 36
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GS 13
GSstarters 49% of ptsStarters(5)
43 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST
GS 31
Bench(4)
45 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST
GS 42
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS1st Quarter · 4:12 · 8-7
+22pp→ 38% WP
Caitlin Clark · misses driving floating jump shot
GS4th Quarter · 5:49 · 65-69
+13pp→ 71% WP
Veronica Burton · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Laeticia Amihere assists)
GS4th Quarter · 3:21 · 70-76
+30pp→ 95% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 21 | 23 | 15 | 18 | 77 |
| GS | 12 | 26 | 17 | 33 | 88 |
Period scoring
IND won 1 · GS won 3
21
12
Q1
Boston 6
Billings 4
23
26
Q2
Boston 9
Leite 15
15
17
Q3
Mitchell 7
Martin 7
18
33
Q4
Clark 4
Mitchell 10
IND
GS
Shooting comparison
IND
GS
44%
29-66
FG
43%
30-70
28%
8-29
3PT
29%
9-31
92%
11-12
FT
70%
19-27
Play-by-play · 397 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 77·GS 88
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 77·GS 88
- Q4·5.0
shot clock turnover
IND 77·GS 88
- Q4·29.1
Laeticia Amihere makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 77·GS 88
- Q4·29.1
Sydney Colson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·29.1
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·29.1
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·29.1
Brianna Turner enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·29.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·29.1
Laeticia Amihere misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·29.1
Lexie Hull personal foul
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·29.1
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·33.0
Caitlin Clark misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·36.1
Fever Full timeout
IND 77·GS 87
- Q4·36.1
Veronica Burton makes 19-foot step back jumpshot
IND 77·GS 87
+0.6pp
- Q4·48.1
Laeticia Amihere offensive rebound
IND 77·GS 85
+0.8pp
- Q4·51.1
Chloe Bibby misses 22-foot three point jumper
IND 77·GS 85
- Q4·1:13
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup
IND 77·GS 85
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:24
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 75·GS 85
- Q4·1:24
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 75·GS 84
- Q4·1:24
Caitlin Clark personal foul
IND 75·GS 83
+1pp
- Q4·1:25
Sophie Cunningham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 75·GS 83
−1pp
- Q4·1:40
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 72·GS 83
- Q4·1:40
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 72·GS 82
- Q4·1:40
Caitlin Clark shooting foul
IND 72·GS 81
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:54
Kayla Thornton offensive rebound
IND 72·GS 81
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:57
Laeticia Amihere misses layup
IND 72·GS 81
- Q4·2:19
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 72·GS 81
+1pp
- Q4·2:19
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 71·GS 81
- Q4·2:19
Tiffany Hayes personal foul
IND 70·GS 81
−1pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
GS
Home
29-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-70
44
FG %
43
8-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-31
11-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-27
20
Assists
18
16
Turnovers
7
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS0.9± 2.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
GS
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.3%
32.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶36.1%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
86.4
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1