Jul 27, 25sim 97
17106
3(H)80
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4LV
LV
11-11
9086
DAL
6-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 90–86. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
26.1Game score
37
Pts
10
Reb
2
Ast
DAL · top performer
JJ Quinerly
G · #11
17.0Game score
17
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV11-11
9086
DAL6-17
LV11-11DAL6-17
LV
11-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 34 | 37 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | |
| 25 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -14 | |
| 30 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | |
| 25 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +9 | |
| 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 18 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +16 | |
| 23 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | |
| Team | 90 | 40 | 23 | 8 | 9 | 15 | ||
| DNP: K. Bell | ||||||||
DAL
6-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 22 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +11 | |
| 24 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -5 | |
| 35 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | |
| 39 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 30 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 15 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -21 | |
| 12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 19 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| Team | 86 | 39 | 32 | 14 | 6 | 11 | ||
| DNP: G. Berger | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
40
23
Ast
32
Season series
LV wins series 4-0
Jun 14DAL84@LV88
DAL84@LV88Jul 17LV90@DAL86today
LV90@DAL86todayJul 27LV106@DAL80
LV106@DAL80Aug 17DAL87@LV106
DAL87@LV106Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 27.0
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 34 min30+ point game
37 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
DALJ. Quinerly
GGame leader · 30 min
17 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LV beat DAL 90-86. A. Wilson led the way with 37 points and 10 rebounds. DAL outscored the other side 34-18 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST
GS 57
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 21
DALstarters 81% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 24 REB · 22 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL1st Quarter · 3:40 · 12-15
+9pp→ 55% WP
Aaliyah Nye · enters the game for Chelsea Gray
DAL4th Quarter · 27.0 · 86-84
+15pp→ 24% WP
Paige Bueckers · makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Haley Jones assists)
LV4th Quarter · 23.2 · 88-84
+12pp→ 96% WP
Li Yueru · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 22 | 25 | 25 | 18 | 90 |
| DAL | 22 | 19 | 11 | 34 | 86 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · DAL won 1
22
22
Q1
Wilson 8
Bueckers 6
25
19
Q2
Wilson 12
Geiselsoder 10
25
11
Q3
Wilson 9
Quinerly 5
18
34
Q4
Wilson 8
Jones 10
LV
DAL
Shooting comparison
LV
DAL
48%
34-71
FG
40%
34-85
33%
5-15
3PT
34%
10-29
65%
17-26
FT
73%
8-11
Play-by-play · 423 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 90·DAL 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 90·DAL 86
- Q4·1.0
(00:01.2) [Aces] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
LV 90·DAL 86
+0.5pp
- Q4·1.0
Haley Jones makes 19-foot jumper (Li Yueru assists)
·
LV 90·DAL 86
- Q4·3.0
Li Yueru offensive rebound
LV 90·DAL 84
- Q4·6.0
Paige Bueckers misses driving floating jump shot
LV 90·DAL 84
−0.5pp
- Q4·8.1
Wings Full timeout
LV 90·DAL 84
- Q4·8.1
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 90·DAL 84
+0.5pp
- Q4·8.1
Chelsea Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 89·DAL 84
- Q4·8.1
Arike Ogunbowale personal take foul
LV 88·DAL 84
−3pp
- Q4·12.1
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
LV 88·DAL 84
−1pp
- Q4·12.1
Paige Bueckers misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 88·DAL 84
−3pp
- Q4·13.1
JJ Quinerly offensive rebound
LV 88·DAL 84
+1pp
- Q4·18.1
Li Yueru misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LV 88·DAL 84
−5pp
- Q4·23.0
JJ Quinerly enters the game for Luisa Geiselsoder
·
LV 88·DAL 84
- Q4·23.0
Wings timeout
LV 88·DAL 84
- Q4·23.0
Luisa Geiselsoder defensive rebound
LV 88·DAL 84
- Q4·23.2
A'ja Wilson misses free throw 1 of 1
LV 88·DAL 84
+3pp
- Q4·23.2
Kiah Stokes enters the game for Megan Gustafson
·
LV 88·DAL 84
- Q4·23.2
Luisa Geiselsoder enters the game for JJ Quinerly
·
LV 88·DAL 84
−5pp
- Q4·23.2
(00:23.9) [Wings] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Wings] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
LV 88·DAL 84
+8pp
- Q4·23.2
Wings Full timeout
LV 88·DAL 84
- Q4·23.2
Li Yueru shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 88·DAL 84
−12pp
- Q4·23.2
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup (Chelsea Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 88·DAL 84
−9pp
- Q4·26.1
Aces timeout
LV 86·DAL 84
- Q4·27.0
Paige Bueckers makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Haley Jones assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 86·DAL 84
+15pp
- Q4·28.2
Jewell Loyd out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 86·DAL 82
+2pp
- Q4·28.2
(00:28.9) [Aces] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Aces] charged with a timeout
LV 86·DAL 82
- Q4·28.2
Aces Full timeout
LV 86·DAL 82
- Q4·30.1
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
LV 86·DAL 82
−2pp
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
34-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-85
48
FG %
40
5-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-29
17-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-11
23
Assists
32
15
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.0± 1.2low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Alanna SmithDAL1.0± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
DAL
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
46.6%
34.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
88.9
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3