Jun 28, 25sim 94
1978
129689(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2WSH
CHI
5-13
7981
WSH
9-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Chicago Sky, 81–79. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Angel Reese
F · #5
20.6Game score
22
Pts
15
Reb
4
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
12.4Game score
13
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI5-13
7981
WSH9-10
CHI5-13WSH9-10
CHI
5-13
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 36 | 22 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| 30 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | |
| 25 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +9 | |
| 35 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | |
| 12 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -7 | |
| 25 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| Team | 79 | 39 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 16 | ||
| DNP: C. Vandersloot | ||||||||
WSH
9-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | |
| 24 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +13 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 23 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +20 | |
| 35 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -8 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 19 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15 | |
| Team | 81 | 38 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 13 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
42
19
Ast
18
Season series
WSH wins series 3-1
Jun 18WSH79@CHI72
WSH79@CHI72Jul 8CHI79@WSH81today
CHI79@WSH81todayJul 29CHI86@WSH103
CHI86@WSH103Aug 6WSH64@CHI78
WSH64@CHI78Headlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 36pp · 4th Quarter · 2.1
CHIA. Reese
FGame leader · 36 min
22 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 35 min
13 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
WSH beat CHI 81-79. S. Citron led with 13 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST. Elizabeth Williams's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST
GS 47
Bench(5)
11 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
GS 11
WSHstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST
GS 47
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI4th Quarter · 46.1 · 77-77
+27pp→ 42% WP
Rachel Banham · makes 25-foot three pointer
WSH4th Quarter · 31.1 · 77-77
+30pp→ 78% WP
Shakira Austin · misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH4th Quarter · 2.1 · 79-79
+36pp→ 92% WP
Elizabeth Williams · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 16 | 19 | 25 | 79 |
| WSH | 22 | 18 | 16 | 25 | 81 |
Period scoring
CHI won 1 · WSH won 2
19
22
Q1
Williams 5
Melbourne 7
16
18
Q2
Reese 8
Edwards 6
19
16
Q3
Reese 6
Sutton 8
25
25
Q4
Williams 11
Citron 8
CHI
WSH
Shooting comparison
CHI
WSH
45%
27-60
FG
42%
30-71
32%
6-19
3PT
27%
4-15
76%
19-25
FT
55%
17-31
Play-by-play · 450 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 79·WSH 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 79·WSH 81
- Q4·0.0
Sky offensive team rebound
CHI 79·WSH 81
- Q4·0.0
Rachel Banham misses 41-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CHI 79·WSH 81
+6pp
- Q4·2.1
Shakira Austin makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 79·WSH 81
−2pp
- Q4·2.1
Shakira Austin makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 79·WSH 80
+3pp
- Q4·2.1
Rachel Banham enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
·
CHI 79·WSH 79
- Q4·2.1
Elizabeth Williams shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 79·WSH 79
+36pp
- Q4·14.2
Angel Reese makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 79·WSH 79
+9pp
- Q4·14.2
Michaela Onyenwere enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CHI 78·WSH 79
- Q4·14.2
Angel Reese makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 78·WSH 79
−3pp
- Q4·14.2
Kiki Iriafen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 79
−26pp
- Q4·21.1
Sky timeout
CHI 77·WSH 79
- Q4·21.1
Shakira Austin makes layup (Brittney Sykes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 77·WSH 79
+19pp
- Q4·28.1
Shakira Austin offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
+9pp
- Q4·31.1
Shakira Austin misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
−9pp
- Q4·31.1
Sky Coach's Challenge
CHI 77·WSH 77
- Q4·31.1
Mystics offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
−21pp
- Q4·31.1
Shakira Austin misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
+30pp
- Q4·31.1
Rachel Banham enters the game for Michaela Onyenwere
·
CHI 77·WSH 77
- Q4·31.1
(00:31.8) [Sky] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Sky] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
−35pp
- Q4·31.1
Ariel Atkins loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
+26pp
- Q4·31.1
Mystics offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
+7pp
- Q4·32.1
Kiki Iriafen misses layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
−7pp
- Q4·39.1
Michaela Onyenwere enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CHI 77·WSH 77
- Q4·39.1
Mystics Full timeout
CHI 77·WSH 77
- Q4·46.1
Rachel Banham makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
CHI 77·WSH 77
−27pp
- Q4·56.1
Brittney Sykes makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Kiki Iriafen assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 74·WSH 77
+9pp
- Q4·1:15
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
CHI 74·WSH 75
+3pp
- Q4·1:17
Elizabeth Williams misses layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 74·WSH 75
+9pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
27-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-71
45
FG %
42
6-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-15
19-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-31
19
Assists
18
16
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
WSH
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶28.0%
82.8
PPG
85.4
83.4
19.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6