Jun 26, 25sim 96
685
5(H)75
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5GS
CHI
4-11
7883
GS
8-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Chicago Sky, 83–78.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Angel Reese
F · #5
14.2Game score
17
Pts
18
Reb
2
Ast
GS · top performer
Kayla Thornton
F · #5
20.2Game score
29
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI4-11
7883
GS8-7
CHI4-11GS8-7
CHI
4-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 23 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 34 | 17 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -14 | |
| 25 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 23 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | |
| 38 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -10 | |
| 17 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 27 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| Team | 78 | 40 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, M. Jefferson | ||||||||
GS
8-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 18 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 28 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | |
| 26 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 22 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 14 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 17 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 20 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 25 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 83 | 42 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 9 | ||
| DNP: B. Hall | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
38
15
Ast
16
Season series
GS wins series 3-0
Jun 28CHI78@GS83today
CHI78@GS83todayAug 1GS73@CHI66
GS73@CHI66Aug 15GS90@CHI59
GS90@CHI59Headlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 49pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:41
CHIA. Reese
FGame leader · 34 min
17 PTS · 18 REB · 2 AST
GSK. Thornton
FGame leader · 30 min
29 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
GS beat CHI 83-78. K. Thornton paced them with 29 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. Kia Nurse's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 31 REB · 9 AST
GS 39
Bench(3)
23 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST
GS 14
GSstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST
GS 35
Bench(4)
30 PTS · 18 REB · 5 AST
GS 23
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCHI4th Quarter · 9:47 · 57-56
+13pp→ 51% WP
Kia Nurse · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Hailey Van Lith assists)
CHI4th Quarter · 2:53 · 68-73
+14pp→ 23% WP
Kate Martin · shooting foul
CHI3rd Quarter · 4:41 · 45-45
+49pp→ 49% WP
Kia Nurse · enters the game for Rebecca Allen
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 22 | 12 | 20 | 24 | 78 |
| GS | 20 | 19 | 17 | 27 | 83 |
Period scoring
CHI won 2 · GS won 2
22
20
Q1
Nurse 9
Thornton 9
12
19
Q2
Allen 3
Thornton 6
20
17
Q3
Atkins 7
Thornton 6
24
27
Q4
Reese 12
Thornton 8
CHI
GS
Shooting comparison
CHI
GS
37%
26-70
FG
38%
26-69
39%
13-33
3PT
37%
11-30
68%
13-19
FT
69%
20-29
Play-by-play · 410 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 78·GS 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 78·GS 83
+0.8pp
- Q4·3.0
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 78·GS 83
- Q4·3.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
CHI 78·GS 82
−0.5pp
- Q4·3.0
Tiffany Hayes misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 78·GS 82
- Q4·3.0
Michaela Onyenwere personal take foul
CHI 78·GS 82
+1pp
- Q4·4.1
Angel Reese makes two point shot
CHI 78·GS 82
−0.7pp
- Q4·4.1
Angel Reese offensive rebound
CHI 76·GS 82
- Q4·6.2
Rachel Banham misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 76·GS 82
+0.5pp
- Q4·8.1
Sky Full timeout
CHI 76·GS 82
- Q4·8.1
Kaitlyn Chen makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 76·GS 82
- Q4·8.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
CHI 76·GS 81
- Q4·8.1
Kaitlyn Chen misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 76·GS 81
- Q4·8.1
Rachel Banham personal take foul
CHI 76·GS 81
+2pp
- Q4·16.1
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
CHI 76·GS 81
+1pp
- Q4·20.1
Ariel Atkins misses 28-foot three point jumper
CHI 76·GS 81
+3pp
- Q4·22.0
Sky Full timeout
CHI 76·GS 81
- Q4·22.0
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 76·GS 81
−2pp
- Q4·22.0
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 76·GS 80
+0.8pp
- Q4·22.0
Angel Reese personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 76·GS 79
+8pp
- Q4·32.1
Angel Reese makes layup (Kia Nurse assists)
·
CHI 76·GS 79
−2pp
- Q4·47.0
Sky timeout
CHI 74·GS 79
- Q4·47.0
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 74·GS 79
- Q4·47.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
CHI 74·GS 78
−3pp
- Q4·47.0
Kayla Thornton misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 74·GS 78
−2pp
- Q4·47.0
Angel Reese personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 74·GS 78
+7pp
- Q4·1:11
Angel Reese makes layup
CHI 74·GS 78
−4pp
- Q4·1:13
Angel Reese offensive rebound
CHI 72·GS 78
−3pp
- Q4·1:15
Ariel Atkins misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 72·GS 78
+3pp
- Q4·1:27
Angel Reese defensive rebound
CHI 72·GS 78
−0.7pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
GS
Home
26-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-69
37
FG %
38
13-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-30
13-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-29
15
Assists
16
11
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI4.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Jacy SheldonCHI1.1± 2.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
GS
41.1%
FG%
44.7
41.3%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶36.1%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶86.4
19.3
Assists / G
18.0
19.1
11.0
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1