Jun 17, 25sim 97
1871
5(H)88
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+10LA
LA
5-11
8575
IND
7-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 85–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Azura Stevens
F · #23
19.4Game score
23
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
12.5Game score
20
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA5-11
8575
IND7-8
LA5-11IND7-8
LA
5-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | +10 | |
| 32 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 30 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
| 32 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 35 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +16 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | |
| Team | 85 | 34 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 19 | ||
| DNP: C. Brink, S. Feagin, O. Sims, R. Burrell | ||||||||
IND
7-8
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| 33 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 17 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 32 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 33 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -17 | |
| 27 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 24 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| Team | 75 | 31 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
37
19
Ast
13
Season series
LA wins series 3-1
Jun 26LA85@IND75today
LA85@IND75todayJul 5LA89@IND87
LA89@IND87Aug 6IND91@LA100
IND91@LA100Aug 30IND76@LA75
IND76@LA75Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 1:31
LAA. Stevens
FGame leader · 32 min
23 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 32 min
20 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LA beat IND 85-75. A. Stevens led with 23 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. LA outscored the other side 35-17 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 91% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 21 REB · 19 AST
GS 57
Bench(4)
8 PTS · 13 REB · 0 AST
GS 3
INDstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST
GS 36
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 4:13 · 67-66
+14pp→ 51% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dearica Hamby assists)
IND4th Quarter · 3:06 · 71-70
+14pp→ 54% WP
Kelsey Plum · shooting foul
LA4th Quarter · 1:31 · 76-73
+19pp→ 86% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 20 | 10 | 20 | 35 | 85 |
| IND | 19 | 15 | 24 | 17 | 75 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · IND won 2
20
19
Q1
Jackson 8
Howard 6
10
15
Q2
Stevens 5
Cunningham 6
20
24
Q3
Plum 6
Mitchell 11
35
17
Q4
Stevens 14
Boston 6
LA
IND
Shooting comparison
LA
IND
50%
29-58
FG
37%
23-63
32%
6-19
3PT
25%
7-28
75%
21-28
FT
79%
22-28
Play-by-play · 425 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·11.0
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·12.1
Makayla Timpson misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·12.1
Brianna Turner enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·12.1
Fever offensive team rebound
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·12.1
Makayla Timpson misses free throw 1 of 2
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·12.1
Dearica Hamby shooting foul
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·13.1
Makayla Timpson offensive rebound
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·14.2
Aari McDonald misses 6-foot two point shot
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·22.0
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 85·IND 75
- Q4·22.0
Sydney Colson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
LA 84·IND 75
- Q4·22.0
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
LA 84·IND 75
- Q4·22.0
Natasha Howard enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
LA 84·IND 75
- Q4·22.0
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 84·IND 75
- Q4·22.0
Lexie Hull personal take foul
LA 83·IND 75
- Q4·23.0
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
LA 83·IND 75
- Q4·25.1
Sophie Cunningham misses 28-foot three point jumper
LA 83·IND 75
−0.8pp
- Q4·33.1
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
LA 83·IND 75
- Q4·33.1
Fever Full timeout
LA 83·IND 75
- Q4·34.1
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
LA 83·IND 75
- Q4·36.1
Kelsey Plum misses free throw 2 of 2
LA 83·IND 75
+1pp
- Q4·36.1
Natasha Howard enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
LA 83·IND 75
- Q4·36.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 83·IND 75
- Q4·36.1
Lexie Hull personal take foul
LA 82·IND 75
−0.6pp
- Q4·40.0
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
LA 82·IND 75
−0.5pp
- Q4·42.1
Aliyah Boston misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LA 82·IND 75
−1pp
- Q4·46.0
Aari McDonald offensive rebound
LA 82·IND 75
+1pp
- Q4·47.1
Kelsey Mitchell misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
LA 82·IND 75
−1pp
- Q4·49.0
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
LA 82·IND 75
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
IND
Home
29-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
23-63
50
FG %
37
6-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-28
21-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-28
19
Assists
13
19
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
IND
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
45.4%
34.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
32.1%
91.6
PPG
85.4
▶92.9
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4