Jun 28, 25sim 95
1978
129689(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2CON
CON
1-5
8583
IND
2-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 85–83. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Marina Mabrey
G · #3
23.2Game score
26
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
18.7Game score
17
Pts
5
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON1-5
8583
IND2-4
CON1-5IND2-4
CON
1-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | +6 | |
| 29 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -6 | |
| 24 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 37 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | |
| 32 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| Team | 85 | 25 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 16 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, K. Diaby, L. Allen | ||||||||
IND
2-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +6 | |
| 26 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 35 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 35 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| 14 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 | |
| 27 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| Team | 83 | 25 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 14 | ||
| DNP: M. Timpson, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
49
19
Ast
20
Season series
IND wins series 3-1
May 30CON85@IND83today
CON85@IND83todayJun 17CON71@IND88
CON71@IND88Jul 16IND85@CON77
IND85@CON77Aug 17IND99@CON93
IND99@CON93Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 61pp · 4th Quarter · 8:47
CONM. Mabrey
GGame leader · 37 min
26 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 26 min
17 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
CON beat IND 85-83. M. Mabrey paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. Marina Mabrey's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (61pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST
GS 51
Bench(4)
15 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
GS 13
INDstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 18 REB · 17 AST
GS 40
Bench(4)
32 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GS 24
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON4th Quarter · 8:47 · 74-59
+61pp→ 97% WP
Marina Mabrey · enters the game for Robyn Parks
IND4th Quarter · 2:00 · 79-78
+39pp→ 42% WP
Marina Mabrey · blocks Lexie Hull 's 8-foot two point shot
IND4th Quarter · 1:34 · 82-81
+18pp→ 41% WP
Lexie Hull · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 21 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 85 |
| IND | 23 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 83 |
Period scoring
CON won 2 · IND won 2
21
23
Q1
Charles 7
Boston 10
22
16
Q2
Charles 8
Mitchell 5
25
20
Q3
Mabrey 15
Dantas 7
17
24
Q4
Rivers 6
Hartley 19
CON
IND
Shooting comparison
CON
IND
52%
31-60
FG
49%
29-59
50%
10-20
3PT
41%
7-17
87%
13-15
FT
86%
18-21
Play-by-play · 366 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 85·IND 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 85·IND 83
−3pp
- Q4·2.0
Bria Hartley defensive rebound
CON 85·IND 83
−0.5pp
- Q4·2.0
Kelsey Mitchell misses 19-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
CON 85·IND 83
−10pp
- Q4·5.1
Fever timeout
CON 85·IND 83
- Q4·5.1
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 85·IND 83
−3pp
- Q4·5.1
Jacy Sheldon enters the game for Marina Mabrey
·
CON 84·IND 83
- Q4·5.1
Sun offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 84·IND 83
+6pp
- Q4·5.1
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 84·IND 83
+4pp
- Q4·5.1
Kelsey Mitchell personal foul
CON 84·IND 83
−0.6pp
- Q4·6.1
Lexie Hull personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CON 84·IND 83
−17pp
- Q4·8.0
Kelsey Mitchell makes 2-foot two point shot (Aliyah Boston assists)
·
CON 84·IND 83
+4pp
- Q4·13.1
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Natasha Howard
·
CON 84·IND 81
- Q4·13.1
Fever Full timeout
CON 84·IND 81
- Q4·13.1
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
CON 84·IND 81
+1pp
- Q4·15.0
Bria Hartley misses driving floating jump shot
CON 84·IND 81
−1pp
- Q4·39.1
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 84·IND 81
- Q4·39.1
Olivia Nelson-Ododa vs. Lexie Hull (Saniya Rivers gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CON 84·IND 81
−11pp
- Q4·43.1
Saniya Rivers misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CON 84·IND 81
+8pp
- Q4·1:03
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
CON 84·IND 81
−3pp
- Q4·1:07
DeWanna Bonner misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
CON 84·IND 81
−9pp
- Q4·1:15
Fever Full timeout
CON 84·IND 81
- Q4·1:15
Marina Mabrey makes 19-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 84·IND 81
−7pp
- Q4·1:34
Lexie Hull makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 82·IND 81
+18pp
- Q4·1:47
Saniya Rivers makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tina Charles assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 82·IND 78
−17pp
- Q4·1:58
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
CON 79·IND 78
−2pp
- Q4·2:00
Marina Mabrey blocks Lexie Hull 's 8-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
CON 79·IND 78
+39pp
- Q4·2:21
Bria Hartley makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
CON 79·IND 78
+47pp
- Q4·2:33
Natasha Howard personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 76·IND 78
−6pp
- Q4·2:46
DeWanna Bonner makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aliyah Boston assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 76·IND 78
+18pp
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
IND
Home
31-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-59
52
FG %
49
10-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-17
13-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-21
19
Assists
20
16
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND13.9± 11.6low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND1.1± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
IND
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶45.4%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶32.1%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶92.9
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4