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FINAL+19ATL
IND

IND

4-5

5877
ATL

ATL

6-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBATue, Jun 10FinalSeriestied 2-2

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off Indiana Fever, 77–58. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

IND · top performer

IND
Natasha Howard

Natasha Howard

F · #6

13.3Game score

15

Pts

10

Reb

0

Ast

ATL · top performer

ATL
Allisha Gray

Allisha Gray

G · #15

23.2Game score

23

Pts

6

Reb

4

Ast

WNBA · Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
58
77
IND4-5ATL6-3
IND

IND

4-5

58
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. HowardN. Howard★F · #6
2715100122-12
A. BostonA. Boston★C · #7
29745012-5
S. ColsonS. Colson★G · #51
25311002-12
K. MitchellK. Mitchell★G · #0
311111100-18
L. HullL. Hull★G · #10
32051201-13
D. BonnerD. BonnerF · #25
20522100-14
D. DantasD. DantasC · #12
10321001-15
A. McDonaldA. McDonaldG · #2
241412003-8
Team5827135311
ATL

ATL

6-3

77
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
B. JonesB. Jones★F · #24
2821100102+9
B. GrinerB. Griner★C · #42
15940010+8
A. GrayA. Gray★G · #15
332364212+20
J. CanadaJ. Canada★G · #3
24425000+4
R. HowardR. Howard★G · #10
37355123+17
N. CoffeyN. CoffeyF · #12
201071103+12
N. HillmonN. HillmonF · #00
25265101+24
Team7744217412

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

36

FG %

47

13

Ast

21

Playoff series

IND wins series 2-1

Sep 14INDIND68@ATLATL80
Sep 16ATLATL60@INDIND77
Sep 18INDIND87@ATLATL85

Headlines · top performers

Game flowIND ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:20

INDIND
N. Howard

N. Howard

F

Game leader · 27 min

15 PTS · 10 REB · 0 AST

ATLATL
A. Gray

A. Gray

G

Game leader · 33 min

23 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

ATL beat IND 77-58. A. Gray led with 23 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 23-9 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs IND

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
INDINDstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

36 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST

GS 17

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST

GS 15

ATLATLstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 50

Bench(6)

17 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
IND2nd Quarter · 9:03 · 22-22
+8pp→ 41% WP

Aari McDonald · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aliyah Boston assists)

IND2nd Quarter · 2:54 · 31-31
+8pp→ 43% WP

DeWanna Bonner · makes 23-foot three pointer (Aliyah Boston assists)

ATL3rd Quarter · 5:20 · 37-41
+10pp→ 69% WP

Nia Coffey · makes 22-foot three point shot (Rhyne Howard assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
IND191491658
ATL2211232177

Period scoring

IND won 1 · ATL won 3

19
22

Q1

McDonald 6

Jones 8

14
11

Q2

Boston 5

Gray 6

9
23

Q3

Mitchell 4

Gray 8

16
21

Q4

Howard 8

Coffey 7

IND
ATL

Shooting comparison

IND
ATL

36%

21-58

FG

47%

31-66

21%

5-24

3PT

23%

5-22

61%

11-18

FT

67%

10-15

Play-by-play · 393 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    IND 58·ATL 77

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    IND 58·ATL 77

  3. Q4·11.2

    Brianna Turner defensive rebound

    IND 58·ATL 77

  4. Q4·17.0

    Nia Coffey misses 24-foot three point jumper

    IND 58·ATL 77

  5. Q4·30.1

    Aari McDonald makes free throw 2 of 2

    IND 58·ATL 77

  6. Q4·30.1

    Aari McDonald makes free throw 1 of 2

    IND 57·ATL 77

  7. Q4·30.1

    Te-Hina Paopao loose ball foul

    IND 56·ATL 77

  8. Q4·38.2

    Nia Coffey makes free throw 2 of 2

    IND 56·ATL 77

  9. Q4·38.2

    Dream offensive team rebound

    IND 56·ATL 76

  10. Q4·38.2

    Nia Coffey misses free throw 1 of 2

    IND 56·ATL 76

  11. Q4·38.2

    Makayla Timpson personal foul

    IND 56·ATL 76

  12. Q4·38.2

    Nia Coffey defensive rebound

    IND 56·ATL 76

  13. Q4·41.0

    Sydney Colson misses 19-foot pullup jump shot

    IND 56·ATL 76

  14. Q4·50.0

    Maya Caldwell makes driving layup (Nia Coffey assists)

    ·

    IND 56·ATL 76

  15. Q4·1:03

    Aari McDonald makes free throw 2 of 2

    IND 56·ATL 74

  16. Q4·1:03

    Aari McDonald makes free throw 1 of 2

    IND 55·ATL 74

  17. Q4·1:03

    Te-Hina Paopao personal foul

    IND 54·ATL 74

  18. Q4·1:12

    Nia Coffey out of bounds bad pass turnover

    IND 54·ATL 74

  19. Q4·1:22

    Brianna Turner enters the game for Aliyah Boston

    ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

  20. Q4·1:22

    Makayla Timpson enters the game for Natasha Howard

    · ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

  21. Q4·1:22

    Sydney Colson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell

    ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

  22. Q4·1:22

    Taylor Thierry enters the game for Allisha Gray

    ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

  23. Q4·1:22

    Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones

    ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

  24. Q4·1:22

    Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Rhyne Howard

    · ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

  25. Q4·1:22

    Maya Caldwell enters the game for Naz Hillmon

    ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

  26. Q4·1:22

    Natasha Howard personal foul

    ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

  27. Q4·1:22

    Brionna Jones offensive rebound

    IND 54·ATL 74

  28. Q4·1:22

    Te-Hina Paopao misses driving layup

    IND 54·ATL 74

  29. Q4·1:39

    Allisha Gray defensive rebound

    IND 54·ATL 74

  30. Q4·1:43

    Natasha Howard misses driving layup

    ·

    IND 54·ATL 74

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

21-58

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-66

36

FG %

47

5-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-22

11-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-15

13

Assists

21

11

Turnovers

12

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · IND favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    19.4± 9.7low
  • Kelsey MitchellIND
    19.3± 7.5low
  • Allisha GrayATL
    16.8± 11.4low

Rebounds

  • Angel ReeseATL
    9.8± 5.0low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    6.6± 6.4low
  • Monique BillingsIND
    5.1± 3.3low

Assists

  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Jordin CanadaATL
    5.6± 4.7low
  • Rhyne HowardATL
    3.8± 3.1low

Blocks

  • Angel ReeseATL
    0.8± 1.3low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    0.8± 0.9low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    0.7± 1.0low

Steals

  • Rhyne HowardATL
    2.3± 2.6low
  • Jordin CanadaATL
    1.7± 3.2low
  • Angel ReeseATL
    1.4± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

IND

IND

league avg

ATL

ATL

45.4%

FG%

◀

44.9

43.5%

32.1%

3PT %

◀

33.0

31.7%

92.9

PPG

◀

86.0

83.5

22.3

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.5

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop