Jul 6, 25sim 95
1975
8(H)80
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+16MIN
LA
4-10
6682
MIN
12-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Los Angeles Sparks, 82–66.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
11.7Game score
13
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
MIN · top performer
Kayla McBride
G · #21
21.1Game score
29
Pts
1
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA4-10
6682
MIN12-1
LA4-10MIN12-1
LA
4-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -12 | |
| 28 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -23 | |
| 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -27 | |
| 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 39 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | |
| 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 66 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 15 | ||
| DNP: C. Brink, O. Sims, R. Burrell | ||||||||
MIN
12-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 29 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +12 | |
| 27 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +25 | |
| 30 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +12 | |
eFG%.47757 AST/TO1.343 TS%.54729 | ||||||||
| 31 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | |
| 19 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 15 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 17 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
| Team | 82 | 32 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 20 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
54
13
Ast
21
Season series
MIN wins series 4-0
May 18MIN89@LA75
MIN89@LA75Jun 14LA78@MIN101
LA78@MIN101Jun 22LA66@MIN82today
LA66@MIN82todayJul 10MIN91@LA82
MIN91@LA82Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:56
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 31 min
13 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
MINK. McBride
GGame leader · 30 min
29 PTS · 1 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
MIN beat LA 82-66. K. McBride paced them with 29 PTS, 1 REB, 1 AST. MIN outscored the other side 25-12 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST
GS 33
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
GS 3
MINstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST
GS 55
Bench(5)
14 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA2nd Quarter · 5:23 · 24-25
+14pp→ 25% WP
Liatu King · kicked ball violation
MIN3rd Quarter · 7:56 · 39-39
+14pp→ 70% WP
Azura Stevens · offensive charge
LA4th Quarter · 7:43 · 59-58
+12pp→ 44% WP
Sarah Ashlee Barker · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Plum assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 16 | 19 | 19 | 12 | 66 |
| MIN | 21 | 13 | 23 | 25 | 82 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · MIN won 3
16
21
Q1
Stevens 8
McBride 8
19
13
Q2
Plum 9
Kliundikova 7
19
23
Q3
Peddy 6
Williams 5
12
25
Q4
Barker 3
McBride 15
LA
MIN
Shooting comparison
LA
MIN
37%
24-65
FG
54%
30-56
23%
7-31
3PT
44%
11-25
69%
11-16
FT
69%
11-16
Play-by-play · 377 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 66·MIN 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 66·MIN 82
- Q4·0.0
shot clock turnover
LA 66·MIN 82
- Q4·24.1
Emma Cannon makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 66·MIN 82
- Q4·24.1
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·24.1
Emma Cannon misses free throw 1 of 2
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·24.1
Diamond Miller loose ball foul
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·24.1
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·26.0
Liatu King misses 23-foot three point jumper
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·40.1
Alissa Pili turnover
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·40.1
Alissa Pili offensive foul
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·56.1
Karlie Samuelson defensive rebound
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·58.2
Emma Cannon misses 26-foot three point jumper
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:05
Karlie Samuelson bad pass (Shey Peddy steals)
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Emma Cannon enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Mercedes Russell enters the game for Kelsey Plum
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Liatu King enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Sarah Ashlee Barker enters the game for Rickea Jackson
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Diamond Miller enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Alissa Pili enters the game for Maria Kliundikova
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Natisha Hiedeman enters the game for Kayla McBride
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Karlie Samuelson enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Alanna Smith
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:20
Lynx Full timeout
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:22
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:25
Rickea Jackson misses 23-foot three point jumper
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·1:41
Courtney Williams personal foul
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·2:01
Kayla McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alanna Smith assists)
·
LA 65·MIN 82
- Q4·2:19
Maria Kliundikova defensive rebound
LA 65·MIN 79
- Q4·2:22
Kelsey Plum misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
LA 65·MIN 79
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
24-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-56
37
FG %
54
7-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-25
11-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-16
13
Assists
21
15
Turnovers
20
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
MIN
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
50.1%
34.3%
3PT %
32.6
34.5%
91.6
PPG
◀
85.4
88.4
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
21.1
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶15.3