Jun 29, 25sim 94
1671
3(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9DAL
GS
5-6
7180
DAL
2-11
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings held off Golden State Valkyries, 80–71.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Monique Billings
F · #25
13.9Game score
18
Pts
8
Reb
0
Ast
DAL · top performer
Arike Ogunbowale
G · #24
16.1Game score
19
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS5-6
7180
DAL2-11
GS5-6DAL2-11
GS
5-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | |
| 21 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 34 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -7 | |
| 27 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 27 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
| 24 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -17 | |
| 22 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -19 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | |
| Team | 71 | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 16 | ||
| DNP: C. Bibby, A. Powers, K. Chen | ||||||||
DAL
2-11
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 36 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 39 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +11 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 17 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 24 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +21 | |
| 22 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +16 | |
| Team | 80 | 39 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 11 | ||
| DNP: H. Jones | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
39
17
Ast
23
Season series
GS wins series 3-1
Jun 18GS71@DAL80today
GS71@DAL80todayJul 26DAL76@GS86
DAL76@GS86Aug 24GS90@DAL81
GS90@DAL81Sep 5DAL80@GS84
DAL80@GS84Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 4:56
GSM. Billings
FGame leader · 34 min
18 PTS · 8 REB · 0 AST
DALA. Ogunbowale
GGame leader · 36 min
19 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
DAL beat GS 80-71. A. Ogunbowale led with 19 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. DAL outscored the other side 22-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST
GS 29
Bench(3)
24 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 16
DALstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 28 REB · 13 AST
GS 46
Bench(4)
23 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 7:33 · 62-62
+14pp→ 59% WP
Kaila Charles · shooting foul
GS4th Quarter · 4:56 · 70-70
+21pp→ 48% WP
Monique Billings · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
GS4th Quarter · 4:28 · 70-70
+20pp→ 53% WP
Paige Bueckers · misses 29-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 16 | 20 | 21 | 14 | 71 |
| DAL | 23 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 80 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · DAL won 2
16
23
Q1
Thornton 6
Bueckers 8
20
16
Q2
Billings 7
Carrington 7
21
19
Q3
Thornton 5
Yueru 9
14
22
Q4
Amihere 6
Ogunbowale 8
GS
DAL
Shooting comparison
GS
DAL
41%
24-59
FG
39%
29-74
35%
7-20
3PT
26%
7-27
70%
16-23
FT
79%
15-19
Play-by-play · 395 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 71·DAL 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 71·DAL 80
- Q4·4.1
Arike Ogunbowale defensive rebound
GS 71·DAL 80
- Q4·9.1
Kayla Thornton misses 22-foot three point jumper
GS 71·DAL 80
- Q4·14.1
Arike Ogunbowale makes two point shot
GS 71·DAL 80
- Q4·16.1
Stephanie Talbot lost ball turnover (Arike Ogunbowale steals)
·
GS 71·DAL 78
+0.8pp
- Q4·19.1
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Laeticia Amihere
·
GS 71·DAL 78
- Q4·19.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 71·DAL 78
- Q4·19.1
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 71·DAL 78
−0.5pp
- Q4·19.1
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 71·DAL 77
- Q4·19.1
Veronica Burton personal take foul
GS 71·DAL 76
+2pp
- Q4·21.1
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
GS 71·DAL 76
+1pp
- Q4·24.1
Tiffany Hayes misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 71·DAL 76
+4pp
- Q4·30.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 71·DAL 76
−4pp
- Q4·31.0
Veronica Burton misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 71·DAL 76
+9pp
- Q4·31.0
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 71·DAL 76
−1pp
- Q4·31.0
Kaila Charles loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
GS 70·DAL 76
−7pp
- Q4·33.1
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
GS 70·DAL 76
- Q4·36.1
DiJonai Carrington misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 70·DAL 76
−1pp
- Q4·44.1
Myisha Hines-Allen offensive rebound
GS 70·DAL 76
+2pp
- Q4·46.1
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
GS 70·DAL 76
−1pp
- Q4·59.1
Myisha Hines-Allen offensive rebound
GS 70·DAL 76
+3pp
- Q4·1:03
Arike Ogunbowale misses 22-foot three point jumper
GS 70·DAL 76
+2pp
- Q4·1:17
Tiffany Hayes lost ball turnover (DiJonai Carrington steals)
·
GS 70·DAL 76
−4pp
- Q4·1:18
Monique Billings defensive rebound
GS 70·DAL 76
- Q4·1:21
Myisha Hines-Allen misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 70·DAL 76
−5pp
- Q4·1:21
Myisha Hines-Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 70·DAL 76
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:21
Laeticia Amihere shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 70·DAL 75
+6pp
- Q4·1:43
Kayla Thornton lost ball turnover (Paige Bueckers steals)
·
GS 70·DAL 75
+5pp
- Q4·1:46
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 70·DAL 75
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
24-59
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-74
41
FG %
39
7-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-27
16-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-19
17
Assists
23
16
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Kiah StokesGS4.8± 4.1low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Alanna SmithDAL1.0± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
DAL
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
36.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
86.4
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
10.3