Jul 16, 25sim 96
1680
6(H)99
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+37ATL
ATL
13-9
8649
CHI
7-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 86–49. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
13.8Game score
14
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
CHI · top performer
Moriah Jefferson
G · #4
7.6Game score
7
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL13-9
8649
CHI7-15
ATL13-9CHI7-15
ATL
13-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +30 | |
| 20 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +23 | |
| 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +33 | |
| 23 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +26 | |
| 29 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +33 | |
| 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
| 23 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +22 | |
| 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| 21 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| Team | 86 | 42 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 10 | ||
| DNP: R. Howard | ||||||||
CHI
7-15
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -12 | |
| 25 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -28 | |
| 30 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -30 | |
| 26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -32 | |
| 21 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 25 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -16 | |
| 19 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -23 | |
| 21 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | |
| Team | 49 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 13 | ||
| DNP: A. Reese, C. Vandersloot, A. Atkins | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
25
26
Ast
12
Season series
ATL wins series 4-0
Jun 13CHI70@ATL88
CHI70@ATL88Jun 22CHI80@ATL93
CHI80@ATL93Jul 16ATL86@CHI49today
ATL86@CHI49todayAug 8ATL86@CHI65
ATL86@CHI65Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 6:24
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 26 min
14 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
CHIM. Jefferson
GGame leader · 21 min
7 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
ATL beat CHI 86-49. A. Gray led with 14 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. ATL outscored the other side 33-13 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST
GS 54
Bench(5)
28 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST
GS 23
CHIstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
29 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST
GS 15
Bench(4)
20 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST
GS 3
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 23 | 18 | 33 | 12 | 86 |
| CHI | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 49 |
Period scoring
ATL won 3 · CHI won 1
23
10
Q1
Griner 7
Nurse 5
18
13
Q2
Gray 8
Cardoso 8
33
13
Q3
Jones 9
Allen 9
12
13
Q4
Paopao 3
Lith 4
ATL
CHI
Shooting comparison
ATL
CHI
47%
31-66
FG
25%
18-71
33%
9-27
3PT
35%
7-20
75%
15-20
FT
75%
6-8
Play-by-play · 382 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 86·CHI 49
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 86·CHI 49
- Q4·1.1
Moriah Jefferson defensive rebound
ATL 86·CHI 49
- Q4·3.1
Te-Hina Paopao misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 86·CHI 49
- Q4·30.1
Moriah Jefferson makes 7-foot running pullup jump shot
ATL 86·CHI 49
- Q4·36.2
Maya Caldwell bad pass (Kia Nurse steals)
·
ATL 86·CHI 47
- Q4·42.2
Nia Coffey offensive rebound
ATL 86·CHI 47
- Q4·44.1
Nia Coffey misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 86·CHI 47
- Q4·1:01
Elizabeth Williams makes 1-foot layup (Hailey Van Lith assists)
·
ATL 86·CHI 47
- Q4·1:17
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough makes 2-foot layup (Taylor Thierry assists)
·
ATL 86·CHI 45
- Q4·1:37
Hailey Van Lith makes driving layup (Moriah Jefferson assists)
·
ATL 84·CHI 45
- Q4·1:45
Moriah Jefferson defensive rebound
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·1:47
Maya Caldwell misses driving layup
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·1:55
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·1:55
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·1:55
Elizabeth Williams blocks Taylor Thierry 's 1-foot driving layup
·
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:05
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:07
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough blocks Elizabeth Williams's two point shot
·
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:07
Elizabeth Williams offensive rebound
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:11
Maddy Westbeld misses 2-foot jump bank shot
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:26
Maddy Westbeld defensive rebound
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:33
Maddy Westbeld blocks Taylor Thierry 's 2-foot two point shot
·
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:34
Taylor Thierry offensive rebound
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:37
Maddy Westbeld blocks Taylor Thierry 's 2-foot layup
·
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:45
Official timeout
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·2:45
Moriah Jefferson personal foul
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·3:04
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·3:04
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·3:04
Kamilla Cardoso 3 second turnover
ATL 84·CHI 43
- Q4·3:14
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
ATL 84·CHI 43
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
31-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
18-71
47
FG %
25
9-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-20
15-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
6-8
26
Assists
12
10
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.0± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
CHI
43.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.1%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
83.9
PPG
◀
85.4
82.8
19.9
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.3
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0