Jul 16, 25sim 93
2086
19(H)49
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8CON
ATL
5-3
7684
CON
2-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
onnecticut Sun held off Atlanta Dream, 84–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Brittney Griner
C · #42
15.5Game score
18
Pts
6
Reb
0
Ast
CON · top performer
Marina Mabrey
G · #3
26.3Game score
34
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL5-3
7684
CON2-6
ATL5-3CON2-6
ATL
5-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 25 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | |
| 38 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 17 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 36 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -11 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 23 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +4 | |
| Team | 76 | 29 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 12 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
CON
2-6
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 26 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +15 | |
| 33 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 24 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +8 | |
| 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 84 | 27 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 11 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, L. Allen | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
50
19
Ast
17
Season series
ATL wins series 4-1
May 25CON55@ATL79
CON55@ATL79Jun 6ATL76@CON84today
ATL76@CON84todaySep 1ATL93@CON76
ATL93@CON76Sep 8CON62@ATL87
CON62@ATL87Sep 10ATL88@CON72
ATL88@CON72Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 26pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:12
ATLB. Griner
CGame leader · 25 min
18 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST
CONM. Mabrey
GGame leader · 33 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
CON beat ATL 84-76. M. Mabrey paced them with 34 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. Bria Hartley's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 37
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
GS 16
CONstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST
GS 59
Bench(6)
9 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL2nd Quarter · 8:12 · 22-15
+26pp→ 85% WP
Bria Hartley · bad pass
ATL3rd Quarter · 21.1 · 57-60
+14pp→ 52% WP
Kariata Diaby · loose ball foul
ATL3rd Quarter · 0.0 · 61-62
+11pp→ 48% WP
Rhyne Howard · makes 26-foot three pointer
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 17 | 18 | 26 | 15 | 76 |
| CON | 13 | 23 | 26 | 22 | 84 |
Period scoring
ATL won 1 · CON won 2
17
13
Q1
Howard 5
Mabrey 7
18
23
Q2
Griner 4
Charles 8
26
26
Q3
Griner 9
Rivers 27
15
22
Q4
Howard 6
Mabrey 7
ATL
CON
Shooting comparison
ATL
CON
41%
28-68
FG
50%
33-66
30%
8-27
3PT
20%
3-15
71%
12-17
FT
79%
15-19
Play-by-play · 386 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 76·CON 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 76·CON 84
- Q4·2.1
Allisha Gray lost ball turnover (Saniya Rivers steals)
·
ATL 76·CON 84
- Q4·10.1
Tina Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 76·CON 84
- Q4·10.1
Sun offensive team rebound
ATL 76·CON 83
- Q4·10.1
Tina Charles misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 76·CON 83
- Q4·10.1
Nia Coffey personal foul
ATL 76·CON 83
- Q4·14.0
Rhyne Howard makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot
ATL 76·CON 83
- Q4·20.0
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
ATL 73·CON 83
- Q4·20.0
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 73·CON 83
- Q4·20.0
Saniya Rivers makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 73·CON 83
- Q4·20.0
Dream Full timeout
ATL 73·CON 82
- Q4·20.0
(00:20) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Dream] charged with a timeout
ATL 73·CON 82
- Q4·20.0
Rhyne Howard loose ball foul
ATL 73·CON 82
- Q4·20.0
Sun defensive team rebound
ATL 73·CON 82
- Q4·22.0
Saniya Rivers blocks Rhyne Howard 's 25-foot three point jumper
·
ATL 73·CON 82
- Q4·28.0
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 73·CON 82
- Q4·30.1
Allisha Gray misses 3-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 73·CON 82
- Q4·35.0
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 73·CON 82
- Q4·35.0
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 73·CON 81
- Q4·35.0
Maya Caldwell personal foul
ATL 73·CON 80
+1pp
- Q4·50.0
Sun defensive team rebound
ATL 73·CON 80
- Q4·52.1
Rhyne Howard misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 73·CON 80
+4pp
- Q4·52.1
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 73·CON 80
−2pp
- Q4·52.1
Aneesah Morrow shooting foul
ATL 72·CON 80
−2pp
- Q4·58.0
Tina Charles lost ball turnover (Rhyne Howard steals)
·
ATL 72·CON 80
- Q4·58.0
Nia Coffey vs. Tina Charles (Rhyne Howard gains possession)
· ·
ATL 72·CON 80
- Q4·58.0
(00:58.2) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Dream] retain their timeout
ATL 72·CON 80
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:11
Rhyne Howard out of bounds lost ball turnover
ATL 72·CON 80
+1pp
- Q4·1:18
Aneesah Morrow makes driving layup (Bria Hartley assists)
·
ATL 72·CON 80
+2pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
CON
Home
28-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-66
41
FG %
50
8-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-15
12-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-19
19
Assists
17
12
Turnovers
11
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
CON
43.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
40.7%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.0%
83.9
PPG
◀
85.4
74.7
19.9
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.8