Jun 1, 25sim 97
1185
6(H)80
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+27GS
LV
4-3
6895
GS
3-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Las Vegas Aces, 95–68. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
Chelsea Gray
G · #12
10.7Game score
16
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
GS · top performer
Kayla Thornton
F · #5
19.9Game score
22
Pts
11
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV4-3
6895
GS3-5
LV4-3GS3-5
LV
4-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 13 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 27 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -18 | |
| 27 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -17 | |
| 26 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -23 | |
| 27 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -20 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 26 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| Team | 68 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 13 | ||
GS
3-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 30 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18 | |
| 32 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +40 | |
| 25 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +9 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | |
| 26 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +30 | |
| Team | 95 | 43 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 12 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
48
11
Ast
24
Season series
LV wins series 3-1
Jun 7LV68@GS95today
LV68@GS95todayJul 12GS102@LV104
GS102@LV104Aug 3GS77@LV101
GS77@LV101Aug 7LV78@GS72
LV78@GS72Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:06
LVC. Gray
GGame leader · 27 min
16 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
GSK. Thornton
FGame leader · 36 min
22 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
GS beat LV 95-68. K. Thornton led with 22 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST. GS outscored the other side 34-15 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
43 PTS · 22 REB · 7 AST
GS 26
Bench(6)
25 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 13
GSstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 22 REB · 18 AST
GS 56
Bench(6)
30 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST
GS 24
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 6:06 · 16-24
+10pp→ 65% WP
Chelsea Gray · bad pass (Kayla Thornton steals)
LV2nd Quarter · 5:16 · 21-26
+7pp→ 44% WP
Chelsea Gray · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tiffany Mitchell assists)
GS2nd Quarter · 3:47 · 21-31
+8pp→ 72% WP
Monique Billings · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 13 | 15 | 21 | 19 | 68 |
| GS | 15 | 34 | 22 | 24 | 95 |
Period scoring
LV won 0 · GS won 4
13
15
Q1
Nye 5
Thornton 7
15
34
Q2
Wilson 4
Zandalasini 8
21
22
Q3
Gray 9
Thornton 5
19
24
Q4
Evans 7
Zandalasini 8
LV
GS
Shooting comparison
LV
GS
35%
22-62
FG
48%
34-71
24%
6-25
3PT
36%
10-28
72%
18-25
FT
94%
17-18
Play-by-play · 397 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 68·GS 95
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 68·GS 95
- Q4·17.1
Kate Martin defensive rebound
LV 68·GS 95
- Q4·18.1
Dana Evans misses free throw 2 of 2
LV 68·GS 95
- Q4·18.1
Dana Evans makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 68·GS 95
- Q4·18.1
Julie Vanloo personal foul
LV 67·GS 95
- Q4·25.1
Julie Vanloo bad pass (Aaliyah Nye steals)
·
LV 67·GS 95
- Q4·34.1
Kyara Linskens defensive rebound
LV 67·GS 95
- Q4·38.0
Kierstan Bell misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
LV 67·GS 95
- Q4·46.1
Kyara Linskens makes 8-foot two point shot (Julie Vanloo assists)
·
LV 67·GS 95
- Q4·58.1
Tiffany Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 67·GS 93
- Q4·58.1
Aces offensive team rebound
LV 66·GS 93
- Q4·58.1
Tiffany Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
LV 66·GS 93
- Q4·58.1
Julie Vanloo shooting foul
LV 66·GS 93
- Q4·1:02
Kierstan Bell defensive rebound
LV 66·GS 93
- Q4·1:05
Kate Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper
LV 66·GS 93
- Q4·1:17
Kyara Linskens defensive rebound
LV 66·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Dana Evans misses free throw 2 of 2
LV 66·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Dana Evans makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 66·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Tiffany Mitchell enters the game for Crystal Bradford
·
LV 65·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Kyara Linskens enters the game for Monique Billings
·
LV 65·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Julie Vanloo enters the game for Cecilia Zandalasini
·
LV 65·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Carla Leite enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
LV 65·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Kayla Thornton
·
LV 65·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
LV 65·GS 93
- Q4·1:19
Kayla Thornton personal take foul
LV 65·GS 93
- Q4·1:22
Cecilia Zandalasini makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Veronica Burton assists)
·
LV 65·GS 93
- Q4·1:44
Kate Martin defensive rebound
LV 65·GS 90
- Q4·1:48
Aaliyah Nye misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 65·GS 90
- Q4·2:12
Kayla Thornton makes 4-foot layup (Veronica Burton assists)
·
LV 65·GS 90
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
GS
Home
22-62
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
34-71
35
FG %
48
6-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-28
18-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-18
11
Assists
24
13
Turnovers
12
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV6.9± 5.6low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV1.1± 1.3low
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
GS
49.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
41.3%
34.9%
3PT %
33.0
▶36.1%
91.0
PPG
◀
86.0
86.4
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1