May 23, 25sim 96
999
19(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2GS
WSH
2-1
7476
GS
1-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Washington Mystics, 76–74. Decided by 2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Brittney Sykes
G · #20
21.1Game score
30
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
GS · top performer
Veronica Burton
G · #22
22.3Game score
22
Pts
9
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH2-1
7476
GS1-1
WSH2-1GS1-1
WSH
2-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 19 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 33 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 35 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +11 | |
| 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| 29 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1 | |
| Team | 74 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 17 | ||
GS
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +19 | |
| 28 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 27 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 29 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 24 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -15 | |
| 21 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
| Team | 76 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 11 | ||
| DNP: K. Linskens | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
38
FG %
32
19
Ast
15
Season series
GS wins series 4-0
May 22WSH74@GS76today
WSH74@GS76todayJul 31GS68@WSH67
GS68@WSH67Aug 13GS88@WSH83
GS88@WSH83Aug 31WSH62@GS99
WSH62@GS99Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 63pp · 4th Quarter · 4:38
WSHB. Sykes
GGame leader · 33 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
GSV. Burton
GGame leader · 29 min
22 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
GS beat WSH 76-74. V. Burton led with 22 PTS, 9 REB, 5 AST. Stefanie Dolson's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (63pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 30 REB · 9 AST
GS 38
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST
GS 10
GSstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 26 REB · 9 AST
GS 41
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 9
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 4:54 · 60-60
+36pp→ 58% WP
Veronica Burton · makes free throw 1 of 2
GS4th Quarter · 1:19 · 65-66
+21pp→ 77% WP
Sonia Citron · personal foul
WSH4th Quarter · 4:38 · 60-61
+63pp→ 63% WP
Stefanie Dolson · enters the game for Sika Kone
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 14 | 16 | 16 | 28 | 74 |
| GS | 11 | 20 | 16 | 29 | 76 |
Period scoring
WSH won 1 · GS won 2
14
11
Q1
Sykes 5
Salaun 4
16
20
Q2
Sykes 6
Billings 5
16
16
Q3
Sykes 10
Thornton 7
28
29
Q4
Sykes 9
Burton 14
WSH
GS
Shooting comparison
WSH
GS
38%
25-66
FG
32%
23-72
35%
7-20
3PT
19%
7-37
74%
17-23
FT
82%
23-28
Play-by-play · 455 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 74·GS 76
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
WSH 74·GS 76
+7pp
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Mystics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)BIG MOMENT
WSH 74·GS 76
+47pp
- Q4·5.1
Sonia Citron makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brittney Sykes assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 74·GS 76
−5pp
- Q4·9.0
Mystics timeout
WSH 71·GS 76
- Q4·9.0
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 71·GS 76
−0.9pp
- Q4·9.0
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 71·GS 75
- Q4·9.0
Sonia Citron personal take foul
WSH 71·GS 74
+4pp
- Q4·11.2
Kiki Iriafen makes two point shot
WSH 71·GS 74
−2pp
- Q4·13.2
Kiki Iriafen offensive rebound
WSH 69·GS 74
−1pp
- Q4·15.0
Brittney Sykes misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 69·GS 74
+4pp
- Q4·22.1
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 69·GS 74
- Q4·22.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
WSH 69·GS 73
−2pp
- Q4·22.1
Carla Leite misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 69·GS 73
−2pp
- Q4·22.1
Brittney Sykes personal take foul
WSH 69·GS 73
+4pp
- Q4·23.1
Jade Melbourne makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 69·GS 73
+4pp
- Q4·23.1
Carla Leite enters the game for Temi Fagbenle
·
WSH 68·GS 73
- Q4·23.1
Janelle Salaun shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 68·GS 73
−7pp
- Q4·23.1
Jade Melbourne makes driving layup (Sika Kone assists)
·
WSH 68·GS 73
−1pp
- Q4·29.0
Sika Kone enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
WSH 66·GS 73
- Q4·29.0
Monique Billings enters the game for Carla Leite
·
WSH 66·GS 73
- Q4·29.0
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 66·GS 73
- Q4·29.0
Veronica Burton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Temi Fagbenle assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 66·GS 73
+6pp
- Q4·30.0
Temi Fagbenle offensive rebound
WSH 66·GS 70
+5pp
- Q4·31.1
Kayla Thornton misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 66·GS 70
−2pp
- Q4·52.2
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 66·GS 70
- Q4·52.2
Mystics offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 65·GS 70
+5pp
- Q4·52.2
Brittney Sykes misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 65·GS 70
+6pp
- Q4·52.2
Temi Fagbenle shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 65·GS 70
−10pp
- Q4·1:03
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 65·GS 70
−4pp
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
GS
Home
25-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
23-72
38
FG %
32
7-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-37
17-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-28
19
Assists
15
17
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 16 players in cohort- Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Gabby WilliamsGS2.9± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
GS
45.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.3%
28.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶36.1%
83.4
PPG
85.4
▶86.4
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.1
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1