May 20, 25sim 98
1787
18(H)62
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9GS
GS
2-1
8273
LA
1-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 82–73.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Carla Leite
G · #0
17.5Game score
19
Pts
2
Reb
3
Ast
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
17.3Game score
25
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS2-1
8273
LA1-3
GS2-1LA1-3
GS
2-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +1 | |
| 30 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | |
| 27 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 33 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +19 | |
| 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +15 | |
| 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 23 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +17 | |
| Team | 82 | 34 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 15 | ||
LA
1-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -11 | |
| 32 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 27 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 37 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 29 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| Team | 73 | 31 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 17 | ||
| DNP: S. Feagin | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
39
15
Ast
18
Season series
GS wins series 3-1
May 17LA84@GS67
LA84@GS67May 24GS82@LA73today
GS82@LA73todayJun 10GS89@LA81
GS89@LA81Aug 10LA59@GS72
LA59@GS72Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 2:32
GSC. Leite
GGame leader · 23 min
19 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 34 min
25 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
GS beat LA 82-73. C. Leite led with 19 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST. GS outscored the other side 25-9 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 26 REB · 10 AST
GS 41
Bench(4)
30 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
GS 24
LAstarters 92% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST
GS 44
Bench(4)
6 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 4:45 · 35-26
+8pp→ 70% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)
LA4th Quarter · 2:32 · 73-67
+9pp→ 22% WP
Temi Fagbenle · shooting foul
GS4th Quarter · 1:51 · 73-68
+8pp→ 90% WP
Julie Allemand · bad pass (Kayla Thornton steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 24 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 82 |
| LA | 26 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 73 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · LA won 2
24
26
Q1
Salaun 7
Hamby 9
25
9
Q2
Salaun 6
Plum 5
19
18
Q3
Leite 9
King 6
14
20
Q4
Burton 6
Hamby 10
GS
LA
Shooting comparison
GS
LA
42%
27-65
FG
39%
24-62
31%
9-29
3PT
35%
9-26
90%
19-21
FT
73%
16-22
Play-by-play · 386 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 82·LA 73
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 82·LA 73
- Q4·0.1
shot clock turnover
GS 82·LA 73
- Q4·22.1
Janelle Salaun defensive rebound
GS 82·LA 73
- Q4·24.1
Dearica Hamby misses two point shot
GS 82·LA 73
- Q4·31.1
Sparks timeout
GS 82·LA 73
- Q4·31.1
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 82·LA 73
- Q4·31.1
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 81·LA 73
- Q4·31.1
Kelsey Plum personal foul
GS 80·LA 73
−0.7pp
- Q4·40.1
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 80·LA 73
−1pp
- Q4·40.1
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 80·LA 72
- Q4·40.1
Temi Fagbenle shooting foul
GS 80·LA 71
+1pp
- Q4·44.1
Sparks Full timeout
GS 80·LA 71
- Q4·44.1
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 80·LA 71
- Q4·44.1
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 79·LA 71
- Q4·44.1
Sarah Ashlee Barker personal foul
GS 78·LA 71
−1pp
- Q4·56.2
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
GS 78·LA 71
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:00
Kelsey Plum misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 78·LA 71
−2pp
- Q4·1:08
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 78·LA 71
+2pp
- Q4·1:08
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 77·LA 71
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:08
Kelsey Plum personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 76·LA 71
−5pp
- Q4·1:21
Dearica Hamby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sarah Ashlee Barker assists)
·
GS 76·LA 71
+5pp
- Q4·1:33
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 3 of 3
GS 76·LA 68
+1pp
- Q4·1:33
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 2 of 3
GS 75·LA 68
−1pp
- Q4·1:33
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 1 of 3BIG MOMENT
GS 74·LA 68
−8pp
- Q4·1:33
(01:33) [Golden State Valkyries] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)BIG MOMENT
GS 73·LA 68
+7pp
- Q4·1:33
Dearica Hamby shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 73·LA 68
−6pp
- Q4·1:51
Julie Allemand bad pass (Kayla Thornton steals)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 73·LA 68
−8pp
- Q4·2:13
Kayla Thornton travelingBIG MOMENT
GS 73·LA 68
+6pp
- Q4·2:32
Dearica Hamby makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 73·LA 68
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
LA
Home
27-65
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-62
42
FG %
39
9-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-26
19-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-22
15
Assists
18
15
Turnovers
17
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
LA
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶50.7%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.3%
86.4
PPG
85.4
▶91.6
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.4