May 20, 25sim 99
1787
18(H)62
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8SEA
SEA
1-1
7971
DAL
0-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
eattle Storm went into Dallas Wings and beat them, 79–71.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Nneka Ogwumike
F · #3
17.6Game score
23
Pts
18
Reb
3
Ast
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
17.1Game score
19
Pts
6
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA1-1
7971
DAL0-2
SEA1-1DAL0-2
SEA
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 35 | 23 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +13 | |
| 39 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +10 | |
| 28 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | |
| 36 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +13 | |
| 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 79 | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 11 | ||
| DNP: L. Brown, Z. Cooke | ||||||||
DAL
0-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | |
| 18 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 27 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | |
| 19 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 37 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 29 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 15 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +6 | |
| 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +6 | |
| Team | 71 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 14 | ||
| DNP: L. Geiselsoder, A. James | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
37
25
Ast
19
Season series
SEA wins series 3-1
May 20SEA79@DAL71today
SEA79@DAL71todayJun 4DAL77@SEA83
DAL77@SEA83Jul 23DAL87@SEA63
DAL87@SEA63Aug 22SEA95@DAL60
SEA95@DAL60Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:02
SEAN. Ogwumike
FGame leader · 35 min
23 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 37 min
19 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
SEA beat DAL 79-71. N. Ogwumike led with 23 PTS, 18 REB, 3 AST. SEA outscored the other side 31-15 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 94% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 33 REB · 24 AST
GS 62
Bench(3)
5 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
GS 1
DALstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST
GS 27
Bench(5)
24 PTS · 19 REB · 5 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA1st Quarter · 36.1 · 25-23
+8pp→ 56% WP
Gabby Williams · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
SEA2nd Quarter · 8:02 · 28-28
+8pp→ 50% WP
Alysha Clark · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
DAL3rd Quarter · 1:21 · 64-59
+7pp→ 24% WP
Maddy Siegrist · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 25 | 31 | 10 | 13 | 79 |
| DAL | 26 | 15 | 20 | 10 | 71 |
Period scoring
SEA won 2 · DAL won 2
25
26
Q1
Ogwumike 8
Bueckers 7
31
15
Q2
Diggins 13
Bueckers 6
10
20
Q3
Williams 4
Siegrist 6
13
10
Q4
Ogwumike 6
Bueckers 6
SEA
DAL
Shooting comparison
SEA
DAL
41%
29-70
FG
37%
27-73
60%
9-15
3PT
21%
4-19
63%
12-19
FT
68%
13-19
Play-by-play · 404 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 79·DAL 71
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 79·DAL 71
- Q4·5.0
Paige Bueckers makes 4-foot two point shot (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)
·
SEA 79·DAL 71
- Q4·15.1
Skylar Diggins makes two point shot (Nneka Ogwumike assists)
·
SEA 79·DAL 69
- Q4·21.1
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
SEA 77·DAL 69
- Q4·23.1
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 77·DAL 69
- Q4·27.0
Wings timeout
SEA 77·DAL 69
- Q4·27.0
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 77·DAL 69
- Q4·27.0
Ezi Magbegor enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
SEA 76·DAL 69
- Q4·27.0
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 76·DAL 69
- Q4·27.0
Skylar Diggins misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 76·DAL 69
- Q4·27.0
Paige Bueckers personal foul
SEA 76·DAL 69
- Q4·28.2
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
SEA 76·DAL 69
- Q4·28.2
Storm timeout
SEA 76·DAL 69
- Q4·28.2
5 second violation
SEA 76·DAL 69
−0.8pp
- Q4·28.2
Wings Full timeout
SEA 76·DAL 69
- Q4·29.1
Nneka Ogwumike makes tip shot
SEA 76·DAL 69
- Q4·29.2
Nneka Ogwumike offensive rebound
SEA 74·DAL 69
−1pp
- Q4·30.1
Alysha Clark misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 74·DAL 69
- Q4·54.2
Ezi Magbegor defensive rebound
SEA 74·DAL 69
−0.8pp
- Q4·56.2
Arike Ogunbowale misses two point shot
SEA 74·DAL 69
−2pp
- Q4·1:01
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
SEA 74·DAL 69
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:03
Gabby Williams misses 17-foot two point shot
SEA 74·DAL 69
+1pp
- Q4·1:21
Paige Bueckers makes two point shot
SEA 74·DAL 69
+1pp
- Q4·1:23
Gabby Williams bad pass (Paige Bueckers steals)
·
SEA 74·DAL 67
+3pp
- Q4·1:25
Paige Bueckers personal foul
SEA 74·DAL 67
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:34
Storm Full timeout
SEA 74·DAL 67
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:43
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
SEA 74·DAL 67
−0.8pp
- Q4·1:45
Arike Ogunbowale misses running pullup jump shot
SEA 74·DAL 67
−2pp
- Q4·1:51
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
SEA 74·DAL 67
+0.6pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
29-70
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-73
41
FG %
37
9-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-19
12-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-19
25
Assists
19
11
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL13.6± 12.3low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Mackenzie HolmesSEA5.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Alanna SmithDAL1.0± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
DAL
41.6%
FG%
44.7
▶46.6%
34.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3