Jul 3, 25sim 98
679
9(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13ATL
CHI
3-10
8093
ATL
10-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Chicago Sky, 93–80.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Ariel Atkins
G · #7
18.3Game score
29
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
17.4Game score
19
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI3-10
8093
ATL10-4
CHI3-10ATL10-4
CHI
3-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 10 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -13 | |
| 21 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
| 32 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 35 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -11 | |
| 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| Team | 80 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 9 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, M. Jefferson | ||||||||
ATL
10-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +15 | |
| 18 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | |
| 38 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +13 | |
| 19 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 35 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +18 | |
| 26 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +19 | |
| 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 93 | 36 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 9 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
42
19
Ast
21
Season series
ATL wins series 4-0
Jun 13CHI70@ATL88
CHI70@ATL88Jun 22CHI80@ATL93today
CHI80@ATL93todayJul 16ATL86@CHI49
ATL86@CHI49Aug 8ATL86@CHI65
ATL86@CHI65Headlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 2:37
CHIA. Atkins
GGame leader · 35 min
29 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 38 min
19 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
ATL beat CHI 93-80. A. Gray led with 19 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 24-11 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 31 REB · 14 AST
GS 51
Bench(4)
20 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
GS 16
ATLstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST
GS 51
Bench(6)
30 PTS · 11 REB · 9 AST
GS 28
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL3rd Quarter · 3:15 · 59-58
+13pp→ 63% WP
Allisha Gray · makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL4th Quarter · 7:35 · 73-75
+12pp→ 66% WP
Te-Hina Paopao · makes 24-foot three pointer (Allisha Gray assists)
ATL4th Quarter · 2:37 · 80-85
+14pp→ 87% WP
Rachel Banham · misses 24-foot three point jumper
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 26 | 24 | 11 | 80 |
| ATL | 25 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 93 |
Period scoring
CHI won 2 · ATL won 2
19
25
Q1
Williams 6
Gray 8
26
21
Q2
Atkins 9
Paopao 9
24
23
Q3
Atkins 12
Banham 7
11
24
Q4
Atkins 6
Howard 9
CHI
ATL
Shooting comparison
CHI
ATL
42%
27-64
FG
42%
28-66
27%
4-15
3PT
48%
16-33
92%
22-24
FT
70%
21-30
Play-by-play · 408 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 80·ATL 93
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 80·ATL 93
- Q4·9.1
Brionna Jones defensive rebound
CHI 80·ATL 93
- Q4·12.1
Angel Reese misses driving layup
CHI 80·ATL 93
- Q4·17.0
Sky timeout
CHI 80·ATL 93
- Q4·17.0
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 80·ATL 93
- Q4·17.0
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
CHI 80·ATL 92
- Q4·17.0
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
CHI 80·ATL 92
- Q4·17.0
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 80·ATL 92
- Q4·17.0
Kia Nurse enters the game for Ariel Atkins
·
CHI 80·ATL 91
- Q4·17.0
Ariel Atkins shooting foul
CHI 80·ATL 91
- Q4·33.0
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
CHI 80·ATL 91
- Q4·37.0
Allisha Gray blocks Rachel Banham 's 22-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
CHI 80·ATL 91
- Q4·41.1
Sky Full timeout
CHI 80·ATL 91
- Q4·41.1
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 80·ATL 91
- Q4·41.1
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 80·ATL 90
- Q4·41.1
Rachel Banham personal take foul
CHI 80·ATL 89
- Q4·50.1
Angel Reese personal foul
CHI 80·ATL 89
- Q4·50.1
Jordin Canada defensive rebound
CHI 80·ATL 89
- Q4·51.0
Ariel Atkins misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 80·ATL 89
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:09
Rhyne Howard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)
·
CHI 80·ATL 89
+3pp
- Q4·1:11
Brionna Jones offensive rebound
CHI 80·ATL 86
+3pp
- Q4·1:14
Brionna Jones misses layup
CHI 80·ATL 86
−3pp
- Q4·1:29
Brionna Jones defensive rebound
CHI 80·ATL 86
+1pp
- Q4·1:31
Elizabeth Williams misses layup
CHI 80·ATL 86
+3pp
- Q4·1:34
Sky offensive team rebound
CHI 80·ATL 86
- Q4·1:34
Angel Reese vs. Brionna Jones (Elizabeth Williams gains possession)
· ·
CHI 80·ATL 86
−3pp
- Q4·1:34
Brionna Jones blocks Angel Reese 's 4-foot driving layup
·
CHI 80·ATL 86
−1pp
- Q4·1:34
(01:34) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Dream] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
CHI 80·ATL 86
+13pp
- Q4·1:34
Dream Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
CHI 80·ATL 86
−9pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
27-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-66
42
FG %
42
4-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-33
22-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-30
19
Assists
21
9
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.0± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
ATL
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶43.6%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶31.4%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶83.9
19.3
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.9
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.9