Jun 6, 25sim 93
2076
18(H)84
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+21PHX
PHX
11-4
10786
CHI
3-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 107–86. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
14.6Game score
16
Pts
3
Reb
3
Ast
CHI · top performer
Michaela Onyenwere
F · #12
12.5Game score
17
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Phoenix Mercury at Chicago Sky · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
PHX11-4
10786
CHI3-9
PHX11-4CHI3-9
PHX
11-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +30 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 20 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
| 18 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 23 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
USG%.30999+ TS%.4510 eFG%.3620 | ||||||||
| 18 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
| 14 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| 18 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | |
| 15 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -11 | |
| 25 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +22 | |
| 28 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| Team | 107 | 34 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 19 | ||
| DNP: L. Held, M. McConnell | ||||||||
CHI
3-9
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -25 | |
| 21 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -19 | |
| 17 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -17 | |
| 23 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 21 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -13 | |
| 24 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | |
| 19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 18 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -11 | |
| Team | 86 | 22 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 20 | ||
| DNP: C. Vandersloot, M. Jefferson | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
53
25
Ast
22
Season series
PHX wins series 4-0
May 28CHI89@PHX94
CHI89@PHX94Jun 21PHX107@CHI86today
PHX107@CHI86todayAug 3PHX83@CHI67
PHX83@CHI67Aug 29CHI79@PHX83
CHI79@PHX83Headlines · top performers
Game flowPHX ↔ CHI
Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:53
PHXK. Copper
GGame leader · 23 min
16 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
CHIM. Onyenwere
FGame leader · 24 min
17 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
PHX beat CHI 107-86. K. Copper led with 16 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. PHX outscored the other side 34-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CHI vs PHX
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 17 REB · 16 AST
GS 55
Bench(5)
49 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST
GS 39
CHIstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
51 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST
GS 42
Bench(5)
35 PTS · 9 REB · 13 AST
GS 28
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 8:00 · 7-4
+6pp→ 60% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
CHI2nd Quarter · 4:53 · 41-33
+7pp→ 24% WP
Alyssa Thomas · makes 1-foot layup (Sami Whitcomb assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 31 | 27 | 34 | 15 | 107 |
| CHI | 18 | 25 | 15 | 28 | 86 |
Period scoring
PHX won 3 · CHI won 1
31
18
Q1
Sabally 12
Cardoso 6
27
25
Q2
Whitcomb 15
Cardoso 11
34
15
Q3
Copper 7
Atkins 6
15
28
Q4
Brown 9
Nurse 10
PHX
CHI
Shooting comparison
PHX
CHI
51%
35-68
FG
53%
30-57
49%
17-35
3PT
35%
8-23
83%
20-24
FT
90%
18-20
Play-by-play · 382 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 107·CHI 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 107·CHI 86
- Q4·2.1
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 107·CHI 86
- Q4·2.1
Michaela Onyenwere misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 107·CHI 86
- Q4·25.2
Kalani Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Murjanatu Musa assists)
·
PHX 107·CHI 86
- Q4·28.1
Murjanatu Musa offensive rebound
PHX 104·CHI 86
- Q4·30.0
Kitija Laksa misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 104·CHI 86
- Q4·47.1
Kia Nurse makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 104·CHI 86
- Q4·47.1
Kia Nurse makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 104·CHI 85
- Q4·47.1
Kalani Brown shooting foul
PHX 104·CHI 84
- Q4·54.0
Natasha Mack bad pass (Hailey Van Lith steals)
·
PHX 104·CHI 84
- Q4·1:18
Kia Nurse makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot
PHX 104·CHI 84
- Q4·1:22
Kathryn Westbeld bad pass (Hailey Van Lith steals)
· ·
PHX 104·CHI 81
- Q4·1:34
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 104·CHI 81
- Q4·1:37
Hailey Van Lith misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 104·CHI 81
- Q4·1:51
Murjanatu Musa makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 104·CHI 81
- Q4·2:16
Michaela Onyenwere makes 25-foot three point jumper (Maddy Westbeld assists)
· ·
PHX 102·CHI 81
- Q4·2:24
Kitija Laksa bad pass (Kia Nurse steals)
·
PHX 102·CHI 78
- Q4·2:38
Kia Nurse makes 22-foot three point jumper (Hailey Van Lith assists)
·
PHX 102·CHI 78
- Q4·2:51
Kalani Brown enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
PHX 102·CHI 75
- Q4·2:51
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 102·CHI 75
- Q4·2:52
Sky defensive team rebound
PHX 102·CHI 75
- Q4·2:52
Kitija Laksa misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 102·CHI 75
- Q4·2:55
Murjanatu Musa offensive rebound
PHX 102·CHI 75
- Q4·2:56
Natasha Mack misses 12-foot two point shot
PHX 102·CHI 75
- Q4·3:16
Kia Nurse makes two point shot (Elizabeth Williams assists)
·
PHX 102·CHI 75
- Q4·3:19
Natasha Mack lost ball turnover (Elizabeth Williams steals)
·
PHX 102·CHI 73
- Q4·3:19
Natasha Mack vs. Elizabeth Williams (Kia Nurse gains possession)
· ·
PHX 102·CHI 73
- Q4·3:22
Natasha Mack offensive rebound
PHX 102·CHI 73
- Q4·3:24
Kathryn Westbeld misses driving layup
·
PHX 102·CHI 73
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
35-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-57
51
FG %
53
17-35
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-23
20-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-20
25
Assists
22
19
Turnovers
20
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 12 players in cohort- Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
CHI
42.3%
FG%
◀
44.7
41.1%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
25.9%
83.7
PPG
◀
85.4
82.8
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.3
12.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶11.0