May 27, 25sim 94
12968967
9(H)95
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5MIN
SEA
3-2
7782
MIN
5-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Seattle Storm, 82–77.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Gabby Williams
F · #5
19.1Game score
20
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
MIN · top performer
Courtney Williams
G · #10
18.4Game score
23
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA3-2
7782
MIN5-0
SEA3-2MIN5-0
SEA
3-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 32 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 37 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | |
| 33 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -10 | |
| 26 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | |
| 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 17 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| Team | 77 | 34 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
MIN
5-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +7 | |
| 28 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 37 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +10 | |
| 31 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| 33 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +11 | |
| 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| Team | 82 | 30 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 11 | ||
| DNP: A. Kosu, M. Badiane | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
47
20
Ast
18
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 28SEA77@MIN82today
SEA77@MIN82todayJun 12MIN84@SEA94
MIN84@SEA94Aug 6MIN91@SEA87
MIN91@SEA87Aug 29SEA93@MIN79
SEA93@MIN79Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 25.0
SEAG. Williams
FGame leader · 37 min
20 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST
MINC. Williams
GGame leader · 33 min
23 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
MIN beat SEA 82-77. C. Williams led with 23 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 26-11 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST
GS 47
Bench(5)
16 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
GS 12
MINstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST
GS 64
Bench(5)
10 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN4th Quarter · 2:17 · 69-76
+17pp→ 93% WP
Courtney Williams · makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Kayla McBride assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 25.0 · 73-76
+23pp→ 95% WP
Alysha Clark · loose ball foul
MIN4th Quarter · 23.1 · 73-76
+15pp→ 96% WP
Ezi Magbegor · personal take foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 11 | 18 | 22 | 26 | 77 |
| MIN | 26 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 82 |
Period scoring
SEA won 2 · MIN won 2
11
26
Q1
Williams 3
Smith 6
18
13
Q2
Williams 7
Smith 5
22
15
Q3
Williams 6
Collier 4
26
28
Q4
Diggins 8
Williams 11
SEA
MIN
Shooting comparison
SEA
MIN
43%
29-67
FG
47%
32-68
25%
6-24
3PT
37%
7-19
72%
13-18
FT
92%
11-12
Play-by-play · 367 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 77·MIN 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 77·MIN 82
- Q4·4.0
Skylar Diggins bad pass (Courtney Williams steals)
· ·
SEA 77·MIN 82
+3pp
- Q4·11.1
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 77·MIN 82
−1pp
- Q4·11.1
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 77·MIN 81
+0.6pp
- Q4·11.1
Ezi Magbegor personal foul
SEA 77·MIN 80
+4pp
- Q4·11.1
Alysha Clark enters the game for Erica Wheeler
·
SEA 77·MIN 80
- Q4·11.1
Lynx Full timeout
SEA 77·MIN 80
- Q4·11.1
Erica Wheeler makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Gabby Williams assists)
· ·
SEA 77·MIN 80
−4pp
- Q4·14.1
Erica Wheeler enters the game for Alysha Clark
·
SEA 74·MIN 80
- Q4·14.1
Storm Full timeout
SEA 74·MIN 80
- Q4·14.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 74·MIN 80
−0.8pp
- Q4·14.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 74·MIN 79
- Q4·14.1
Skylar Diggins personal take foul
SEA 74·MIN 78
+4pp
- Q4·18.0
Lynx timeout
SEA 74·MIN 78
- Q4·18.0
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 74·MIN 78
- Q4·18.0
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 73·MIN 78
+4pp
- Q4·18.0
Skylar Diggins misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 73·MIN 78
+5pp
- Q4·18.0
Courtney Williams personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
SEA 73·MIN 78
−7pp
- Q4·23.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 73·MIN 78
+4pp
- Q4·23.1
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 73·MIN 77
+0.8pp
- Q4·23.1
Ezi Magbegor personal take foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·MIN 76
+15pp
- Q4·25.0
Alysha Clark vs. Kayla McBrideBIG MOMENT
·
SEA 73·MIN 76
−6pp
- Q4·25.0
(00:25.1) [Storm] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Storm] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·MIN 76
−10pp
- Q4·25.0
Storm Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·MIN 76
−5pp
- Q4·25.0
Alysha Clark loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·MIN 76
+23pp
- Q4·25.0
Alysha Clark jump ball violationBIG MOMENT
SEA 73·MIN 76
−12pp
- Q4·27.1
Lynx Full timeout
SEA 73·MIN 76
- Q4·27.1
Skylar Diggins makes two point shot
SEA 73·MIN 76
−5pp
- Q4·32.0
Skylar Diggins defensive rebound
SEA 71·MIN 76
−1pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
29-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-68
43
FG %
47
6-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-19
13-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-12
20
Assists
18
14
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 13 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN14.3± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
- Olivia MilesMIN1.2± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
MIN
41.6%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
34.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
79.5
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
13.6
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4