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FINAL+17IND
CON

CON

2-9

7188
IND

IND

6-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBATue, Jun 17FinalSeriesIND wins series 3-1

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Connecticut Sun, 88–71.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CON · top performer

CON
Tina Charles

Tina Charles

C · #31

13.5Game score

20

Pts

4

Reb

3

Ast

IND · top performer

IND
Natasha Howard

Natasha Howard

F · #6

16.6Game score

16

Pts

12

Reb

0

Ast

WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
71
88
CON2-9IND6-5
CON

CON

2-9

71
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
T. CharlesT. Charles★C · #31
302043011-23
O. Nelson-OdodaO. Nelson-Ododa★C · #10
171480002-9
B. HartleyB. Hartley★G · #14
14201001-16
M. MabreyM. Mabrey★G · #3
28681304-16
J. SheldonJ. Sheldon★G · #4
28223301-23
H. PetersH. PetersF · #7
25411112+4
L. AllenL. AllenG · #15
12001001+6
J. BrownJ. BrownG · #18
181310110+3
S. RiversS. RiversG · #22
20735010-6
Team7127158412
IND

IND

6-5

88
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. HowardN. Howard★F · #6
2616120102+24
A. BostonA. Boston★C · #7
27995110+17
K. MitchellK. Mitchell★G · #0
291722000-1
L. HullL. Hull★G · #10
31832000+29
C. ClarkC. Clark★G · #22
292016204+31
D. DantasD. DantasC · #12
161322003-3
S. ColsonS. ColsonG · #51
16011103-8
S. CunninghamS. CunninghamG · #8
225711030
Team8838196115
DNP: D. Bonner

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

39

FG %

46

15

Ast

19

Season series

IND wins series 3-1

May 30CONCON85@INDIND83
Jun 17CONCON71@INDIND88today
Jul 16INDIND85@CONCON77
Aug 17INDIND99@CONCON93

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCON ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:45

CONCON
T. Charles

T. Charles

C

Game leader · 30 min

20 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

INDIND
N. Howard

N. Howard

F

Game leader · 26 min

16 PTS · 12 REB · 0 AST

How it ended

IND beat CON 88-71. N. Howard led with 16 PTS, 12 REB, 0 AST. IND outscored the other side 21-13 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs CON

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
CONCONstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

44 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST

GS 29

Bench(7)

27 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST

GS 19

INDINDstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 5

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
CON2316131971
IND2423212088

Period scoring

CON won 0 · IND won 4

23
24

Q1

Charles 10

Howard 10

16
23

Q2

Charles 6

Clark 9

13
21

Q3

Charles 4

Howard 6

19
20

Q4

Brown 6

Cunningham 14

CON
IND

Shooting comparison

CON
IND

39%

25-64

FG

46%

31-68

14%

3-21

3PT

42%

11-26

90%

18-20

FT

94%

15-16

Play-by-play · 411 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    CON 71·IND 88

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    CON 71·IND 88

  3. Q4·9.0

    shot clock turnover

    CON 71·IND 88

  4. Q4·32.0

    Makayla Timpson defensive rebound

    CON 71·IND 88

  5. Q4·35.1

    Rayah Marshall misses 12-foot pullup jump shot

    CON 71·IND 88

  6. Q4·46.0

    Lexie Hull enters the game for Sophie Cunningham

    ·

    CON 71·IND 88

  7. Q4·46.0

    Rayah Marshall makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2

    CON 71·IND 88

  8. Q4·46.0

    Sun offensive team rebound

    CON 70·IND 88

  9. Q4·46.0

    Rayah Marshall misses free throw flagrant 1 of 2

    CON 70·IND 88

  10. Q4·46.0

    Jaelyn Brown enters the game for Lindsay Allen

    ·

    CON 70·IND 88

  11. Q4·46.0

    Rayah Marshall enters the game for Jacy Sheldon

    ·

    CON 70·IND 88

  12. Q4·46.0

    Damiris Dantas makes technical free throw

    CON 70·IND 88

  13. Q4·46.0

    Sun defensive team rebound

    CON 70·IND 87

  14. Q4·46.0

    Damiris Dantas misses technical free throw

    CON 70·IND 87

  15. Q4·46.0

    Lindsay Allen ejected

    CON 70·IND 87

  16. Q4·46.0

    Jacy Sheldon ejected

    CON 70·IND 87

  17. Q4·46.0

    Jacy Sheldon technical foul

    CON 70·IND 87

  18. Q4·46.0

    Lindsay Allen technical foul

    CON 70·IND 87

  19. Q4·46.0

    (00:46.1) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)

    CON 70·IND 87

  20. Q4·46.0

    Sophie Cunningham ejected

    CON 70·IND 87

  21. Q4·46.0

    Sophie Cunningham flagrant foul type 2

    CON 70·IND 87

    +0.5pp

  22. Q4·49.0

    Sydney Colson lost ball turnover (Jacy Sheldon steals)

    ·

    CON 70·IND 87

  23. Q4·59.1

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa kicked ball violation

    CON 70·IND 87

  24. Q4·1:06

    Sydney Colson offensive rebound

    CON 70·IND 87

  25. Q4·1:09

    Saniya Rivers blocks Damiris Dantas 's 1-foot driving layup

    ·

    CON 70·IND 87

  26. Q4·1:17

    Lindsay Allen bad pass (Sophie Cunningham steals)

    ·

    CON 70·IND 87

  27. Q4·1:25

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound

    CON 70·IND 87

  28. Q4·1:29

    Sydney Colson misses 26-foot three point jumper

    CON 70·IND 87

  29. Q4·1:45

    Olivia Nelson-Ododa makes 5-foot two point shot (Saniya Rivers assists)

    ·

    CON 70·IND 87

  30. Q4·1:59

    Brianna Turner enters the game for Lexie Hull

    ·

    CON 68·IND 87

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

IND

Home

25-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-68

39

FG %

46

3-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-26

18-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-16

15

Assists

19

12

Turnovers

15

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · CON favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(IND win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(IND win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(IND win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    19.4± 9.7low
  • Kelsey MitchellIND
    19.3± 7.5low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    13.9± 11.6low

Rebounds

  • Aneesah MorrowCON
    9.4± 5.2low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    6.6± 6.4low
  • Brittney GrinerCON
    5.2± 1.1low

Assists

  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Saniya RiversCON
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    3.1± 2.1low

Blocks

  • Kennedy BurkeCON
    0.9± 0.8low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    0.8± 0.9low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    0.7± 1.0low

Steals

  • Ashlon JacksonCON
    1.6± 1.5low
  • Aliyah BostonIND
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Caitlin ClarkIND
    1.1± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CON

CON

league avg

IND

IND

40.7%

FG%

44.7

▶

45.4%

26.0%

3PT %

32.6

▶

32.1%

74.7

PPG

85.4

▶

92.9

17.9

Assists / G

18.0

▶

22.3

14.8

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

14.4

Data via ESPN · wehoop