Jun 8, 25sim 99
579
19(H)52
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9IND
WSH
3-5
7685
IND
3-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Washington Mystics, 85–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Kiki Iriafen
F · #44
14.8Game score
20
Pts
9
Reb
0
Ast
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
17.5Game score
24
Pts
2
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH3-5
7685
IND3-4
WSH3-5IND3-4
WSH
3-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +11 | |
| 36 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 33 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | |
| 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -20 | |
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -12 | |
| 26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| Team | 76 | 33 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 15 | ||
| DNP: S. Kone, L. Olsen, G. Amoore | ||||||||
IND
3-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 29 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
| 32 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| 36 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +19 | |
| 21 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 17 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 27 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
| Team | 85 | 19 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 8 | ||
| DNP: M. Timpson, S. Cunningham, C. Clark | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
55
FG %
51
12
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 28IND77@WSH83
IND77@WSH83Jun 3WSH76@IND85today
WSH76@IND85todayAug 15WSH88@IND84
WSH88@IND84Sep 7IND94@WSH65
IND94@WSH65Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 5:23
WSHK. Iriafen
FGame leader · 27 min
20 PTS · 9 REB · 0 AST
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 32 min
24 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat WSH 85-76. K. Mitchell led with 24 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 31-21 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 23 REB · 8 AST
GS 37
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 13
INDstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 12 REB · 15 AST
GS 51
Bench(4)
24 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 5:40 · 67-71
+10pp→ 38% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · shooting foul
IND4th Quarter · 5:23 · 69-74
+10pp→ 78% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND4th Quarter · 3:26 · 73-76
+8pp→ 68% WP
Natasha Howard · makes 2-foot layup (Lexie Hull assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 76 |
| IND | 19 | 19 | 31 | 16 | 85 |
Period scoring
WSH won 1 · IND won 3
18
19
Q1
Iriafen 6
Dantas 8
16
19
Q2
Iriafen 6
Boston 8
21
31
Q3
Iriafen 6
Hull 12
21
16
Q4
Sykes 11
Mitchell 9
WSH
IND
Shooting comparison
WSH
IND
55%
30-55
FG
51%
30-59
10%
1-10
3PT
39%
11-28
65%
15-23
FT
61%
14-23
Play-by-play · 379 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 76·IND 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 76·IND 85
- Q4·2.0
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 76·IND 85
- Q4·2.0
Jade Melbourne misses 33-foot three point jumper
WSH 76·IND 85
- Q4·8.0
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 76·IND 85
- Q4·8.0
Fever offensive team rebound
WSH 76·IND 84
- Q4·8.0
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 76·IND 84
- Q4·8.0
Brittney Sykes personal take foul
WSH 76·IND 84
- Q4·14.1
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 76·IND 84
- Q4·14.1
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 75·IND 84
- Q4·14.1
Brittney Sykes misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 75·IND 84
- Q4·14.1
Natasha Howard shooting foul
WSH 75·IND 84
- Q4·21.0
Kiki Iriafen vs. Natasha Howard (Brittney Sykes gains possession)
· ·
WSH 75·IND 84
- Q4·21.0
Mystics defensive team rebound
WSH 75·IND 84
- Q4·22.1
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2
WSH 75·IND 84
- Q4·22.1
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 75·IND 84
- Q4·22.1
Jade Melbourne shooting foul
WSH 75·IND 83
- Q4·26.1
Brittney Sykes lost ball turnover (Kelsey Mitchell steals)
·
WSH 75·IND 83
+1pp
- Q4·36.0
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
WSH 75·IND 83
- Q4·37.2
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2
WSH 75·IND 83
−1pp
- Q4·37.2
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 75·IND 83
- Q4·37.2
Jade Melbourne personal foul
WSH 75·IND 82
+0.6pp
- Q4·42.0
Kiki Iriafen lost ball turnover (Kelsey Mitchell steals)
·
WSH 75·IND 82
+2pp
- Q4·48.1
Brittney Sykes offensive rebound
WSH 75·IND 82
−1pp
- Q4·50.1
Brittney Sykes misses driving layup
WSH 75·IND 82
+2pp
- Q4·1:01
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
WSH 75·IND 82
- Q4·1:02
Aari McDonald misses free throw 2 of 2
WSH 75·IND 82
−3pp
- Q4·1:02
Aari McDonald makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 75·IND 82
- Q4·1:02
Jade Melbourne personal foul
WSH 75·IND 81
+2pp
- Q4·1:10
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 75·IND 81
+3pp
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
IND
Home
30-55
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-59
55
FG %
51
1-10
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-28
15-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-23
12
Assists
21
15
Turnovers
8
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Angela DugalicWSH1.2± 1.6low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
IND
45.7%
FG%
44.7
45.4%
28.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶32.1%
83.4
PPG
85.4
▶92.9
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
15.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4