Jun 17, 25sim 97
1871
5(H)88
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13PHX
DAL
1-10
8093
PHX
7-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Dallas Wings, 93–80.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Paige Bueckers
G · #5
30.0Game score
35
Pts
6
Reb
4
Ast
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
13.4Game score
20
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL1-10
8093
PHX7-4
DAL1-10PHX7-4
DAL
1-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 30 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 35 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15 | |
| 30 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | |
| 37 | 35 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -12 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 17 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -13 | |
| 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| Team | 80 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 14 | ||
| DNP: T. Harris | ||||||||
PHX
7-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +11 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 25 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +23 | |
| 26 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 31 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 23 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | |
| 27 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +7 | |
| 20 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +10 | |
| Team | 93 | 28 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Copper, M. McConnell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
50
16
Ast
23
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 12DAL80@PHX93today
DAL80@PHX93todayJul 4PHX89@DAL98
PHX89@DAL98Jul 8DAL72@PHX102
DAL72@PHX102Sep 12PHX76@DAL97
PHX76@DAL97Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:43
DALP. Bueckers
GGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
35 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 26 min
20 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
PHX beat DAL 93-80. S. Sabally led with 20 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST
GS 52
Bench(5)
11 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
GS 6
PHXstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 22 REB · 20 AST
GS 54
Bench(4)
34 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 24
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 5:27 · 9-13
+9pp→ 67% WP
Satou Sabally · makes 26-foot three pointer (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
DAL2nd Quarter · 9:43 · 23-21
+9pp→ 52% WP
Paige Bueckers · makes 24-foot three pointer
PHX2nd Quarter · 2:58 · 32-34
+8pp→ 58% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 20 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 80 |
| PHX | 21 | 21 | 25 | 26 | 93 |
Period scoring
DAL won 0 · PHX won 4
20
21
Q1
Bueckers 12
Westbeld 5
16
21
Q2
Bueckers 10
Westbeld 6
21
25
Q3
Ogunbowale 6
Sabally 10
23
26
Q4
Bueckers 10
Laksa 9
DAL
PHX
Shooting comparison
DAL
PHX
43%
29-67
FG
50%
35-70
26%
5-19
3PT
43%
15-35
74%
17-23
FT
73%
8-11
Play-by-play · 392 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 80·PHX 93
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 80·PHX 93
- Q4·4.1
shot clock turnover
DAL 80·PHX 93
- Q4·26.2
Monique Akoa Makani defensive rebound
DAL 80·PHX 93
- Q4·31.0
Aziaha James misses 26-foot three point jumper
DAL 80·PHX 93
- Q4·39.2
Satou Sabally makes 2-foot layup (Monique Akoa Makani assists)
·
DAL 80·PHX 93
- Q4·43.1
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·47.1
Paige Bueckers misses 37-foot three point jumper
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·50.0
Aziaha James enters the game for DiJonai Carrington
·
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·50.0
Maddy Siegrist enters the game for Luisa Geiselsoder
·
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·50.0
Wings Full timeout
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·50.0
Satou Sabally back court turnover
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·50.0
DiJonai Carrington lost ball turnover (Satou Sabally steals)
·
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·54.1
Lexi Held bad pass (DiJonai Carrington steals)
·
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·1:15
Myisha Hines-Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 80·PHX 91
- Q4·1:15
Kathryn Westbeld enters the game for Sami Whitcomb
·
DAL 79·PHX 91
- Q4·1:15
Lexi Held enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
DAL 79·PHX 91
- Q4·1:15
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 79·PHX 91
- Q4·1:15
Myisha Hines-Allen misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 79·PHX 91
- Q4·1:15
Satou Sabally shooting foul
DAL 79·PHX 91
- Q4·1:23
Sami Whitcomb makes tip shot
DAL 79·PHX 91
- Q4·1:23
Sami Whitcomb offensive rebound
DAL 79·PHX 89
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:28
Alyssa Thomas misses 18-foot jumper
DAL 79·PHX 89
- Q4·1:52
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 79·PHX 89
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:52
Arike Ogunbowale makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 78·PHX 89
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:52
Sami Whitcomb shooting foul
DAL 77·PHX 89
- Q4·1:52
DiJonai Carrington offensive rebound
DAL 77·PHX 89
- Q4·1:56
Paige Bueckers misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 77·PHX 89
- Q4·1:59
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 77·PHX 89
- Q4·2:01
DiJonai Carrington misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 77·PHX 89
+0.6pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
29-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-70
43
FG %
50
5-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-35
17-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
8-11
16
Assists
23
14
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 11 players in cohort- Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
PHX
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
42.3%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
83.7
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
12.4