May 28, 25sim 96
1989
11(H)94
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8LA
LA
4-7
9789
LV
4-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks went into Las Vegas Aces and beat them, 97–89.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Rickea Jackson
F · #2
21.1Game score
30
Pts
7
Reb
1
Ast
LV · top performer
Jackie Young
G · #0
28.8Game score
34
Pts
8
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA4-7
9789
LV4-4
LA4-7LV4-4
LA
4-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| 33 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 33 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 22 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 37 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | |
| 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| Team | 97 | 38 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 15 | ||
| DNP: S. Feagin | ||||||||
LV
4-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 28 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 36 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | |
| 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 37 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -19 | |
| 21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 89 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 9 | ||
| DNP: J. Holmes, K. Bell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
57
FG %
38
24
Ast
12
Season series
LV wins series 3-1
May 31LA81@LV96
LA81@LV96Jun 12LA97@LV89today
LA97@LV89todayJul 30LV89@LA74
LV89@LA74Sep 12LV103@LA75
LV103@LA75Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 42pp · 1st Quarter · 5:13
LAR. Jackson
FGame leader · 33 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
LVJ. Young
GGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LA beat LV 97-89. R. Jackson paced them with 30 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST. LA outscored the other side 29-17 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 33 REB · 22 AST
GS 70
Bench(4)
16 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
GS 8
LVstarters 97% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST
GS 67
Bench(4)
3 PTS · 4 REB · 0 AST
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA2nd Quarter · 10:00 · 29-17
+42pp→ 68% WP
A'ja Wilson · enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
LA3rd Quarter · 4:05 · 60-53
+9pp→ 71% WP
Emma Cannon · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Plum assists)
LA4th Quarter · 1:38 · 93-87
+18pp→ 95% WP
Tiffany Mitchell · enters the game for Aaliyah Nye
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 29 | 21 | 21 | 26 | 97 |
| LV | 17 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 89 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · LV won 2
29
17
Q1
Jackson 14
Gray 7
21
24
Q2
Stevens 11
Young 14
21
24
Q3
Jackson 8
Wilson 8
26
24
Q4
Jackson 8
Mitchell 22
LA
LV
Shooting comparison
LA
LV
57%
33-58
FG
38%
27-72
45%
9-20
3PT
26%
9-35
81%
22-27
FT
90%
26-29
Play-by-play · 405 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·6.1
Odyssey Sims defensive rebound
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·7.1
Kelsey Plum blocks Aaliyah Nye 's 28-foot three point jumper
·
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·11.1
Kiah Stokes offensive rebound
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·11.1
Chelsea Gray misses 25-foot three point jumper
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·12.1
Aaliyah Nye offensive rebound
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·15.1
Jackie Young misses 26-foot three point jumper
LA 97·LV 89
−0.5pp
- Q4·20.0
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Tiffany Mitchell
·
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·20.0
Aces Full timeout
LA 97·LV 89
- Q4·20.0
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 97·LV 89
+0.5pp
- Q4·20.0
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 96·LV 89
- Q4·20.0
Jackie Young personal foul
LA 95·LV 89
−0.9pp
- Q4·22.1
Rickea Jackson defensive rebound
LA 95·LV 89
−0.6pp
- Q4·24.2
Jackie Young misses driving floating jump shot
LA 95·LV 89
−2pp
- Q4·33.0
Dearica Hamby bad pass (Jewell Loyd steals)
·
LA 95·LV 89
+1pp
- Q4·53.0
Kelsey Plum defensive rebound
LA 95·LV 89
−1pp
- Q4·56.0
Chelsea Gray misses 27-foot three point jumper
LA 95·LV 89
−3pp
- Q4·1:02
Jackie Young defensive rebound
LA 95·LV 89
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:05
Odyssey Sims misses driving floating jump shot
LA 95·LV 89
+2pp
- Q4·1:27
Jackie Young makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 95·LV 89
−3pp
- Q4·1:27
Jackie Young makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 95·LV 88
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:27
Azura Stevens shooting foul
LA 95·LV 87
+4pp
- Q4·1:32
Rickea Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 95·LV 87
+1pp
- Q4·1:32
Rickea Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 94·LV 87
- Q4·1:32
Tiffany Mitchell shooting foul
LA 93·LV 87
−3pp
- Q4·1:38
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Sarah Ashlee Barker
·
LA 93·LV 87
- Q4·1:38
Tiffany Mitchell enters the game for Aaliyah NyeBIG MOMENT
·
LA 93·LV 87
−18pp
- Q4·1:38
Sparks Full timeout
LA 93·LV 87
- Q4·1:44
Jackie Young makes two point shot (Jewell Loyd assists)
·
LA 93·LV 87
+2pp
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
LV
Home
33-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-72
57
FG %
38
9-20
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-35
22-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
26-29
24
Assists
12
15
Turnovers
9
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
LV
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
49.7%
34.3%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.9%
91.6
PPG
85.4
91.0
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6