Jun 20, 25sim 97
577
129689(H)88
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6GS
SEA
6-5
7076
GS
5-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries held off Seattle Storm, 76–70.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
14.2Game score
21
Pts
0
Reb
3
Ast
GS · top performer
Kayla Thornton
F · #5
15.1Game score
22
Pts
12
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Golden State Valkyries · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA6-5
7076
GS5-5
SEA6-5GS5-5
SEA
6-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | |
| 32 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 31 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | |
| 27 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | |
| 24 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 70 | 20 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 16 | ||
GS
5-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 22 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | |
| 25 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +9 | |
| 27 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 34 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +1 | |
| 32 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +15 | |
| 13 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| Team | 76 | 33 | 21 | 9 | 2 | 18 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
48
19
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Jun 15SEA70@GS76today
SEA70@GS76todayJun 30SEA57@GS84
SEA57@GS84Jul 16GS58@SEA67
GS58@SEA67Sep 10GS73@SEA74
GS73@SEA74Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ GS
Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 1:21
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 0 REB · 3 AST
GSK. Thornton
FGame leader · 36 min
22 PTS · 12 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
GS beat SEA 76-70. K. Thornton led with 22 PTS, 12 REB, 1 AST. SEA outscored the other side 20-12 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 16 REB · 16 AST
GS 38
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
GS 11
GSstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 25 REB · 20 AST
GS 49
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
GS 8
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS2nd Quarter · 5:59 · 18-32
+17pp→ 86% WP
Kayla Thornton · enters the game for Monique Billings
SEA4th Quarter · 1:21 · 67-72
+20pp→ 28% WP
Veronica Burton · personal foul
SEA2nd Quarter · 9.0 · 31-44
+14pp→ 14% WP
Storm Coach's Challenge ·
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 15 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 70 |
| GS | 21 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 76 |
Period scoring
SEA won 1 · GS won 3
15
21
Q1
Wheeler 4
Fagbenle 4
16
23
Q2
Diggins 7
Thornton 8
19
20
Q3
Diggins 9
Thornton 6
20
12
Q4
Clark 8
Thornton 5
SEA
GS
Shooting comparison
SEA
GS
40%
25-62
FG
48%
28-58
31%
8-26
3PT
17%
3-18
86%
12-14
FT
89%
17-19
Play-by-play · 359 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 70·GS 76
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 70·GS 76
- Q4·3.0
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
SEA 70·GS 76
- Q4·5.2
Skylar Diggins misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 70·GS 76
+0.6pp
- Q4·8.1
Kayla Thornton out of bounds lost ball turnover
SEA 70·GS 76
−0.6pp
- Q4·8.1
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
SEA 70·GS 76
- Q4·11.1
Erica Wheeler misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 70·GS 76
+0.9pp
- Q4·13.1
Storm Full timeout
SEA 70·GS 76
- Q4·13.1
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 70·GS 76
−0.8pp
- Q4·13.1
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 70·GS 75
- Q4·13.1
Alysha Clark personal foul
SEA 70·GS 74
- Q4·14.1
Alysha Clark personal foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 70·GS 74
+5pp
- Q4·17.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
SEA 70·GS 74
- Q4·17.1
Alysha Clark turnover
SEA 70·GS 74
- Q4·17.1
Alysha Clark offensive foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 70·GS 74
+8pp
- Q4·20.1
Storm timeout
SEA 70·GS 74
- Q4·20.1
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
SEA 70·GS 74
−7pp
- Q4·20.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 70·GS 74
+5pp
- Q4·21.1
Kayla Thornton misses 27-foot three point jumper
SEA 70·GS 74
−4pp
- Q4·27.2
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
SEA 70·GS 74
+2pp
- Q4·44.1
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
SEA 70·GS 74
+7pp
- Q4·44.1
Temi Fagbenle shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 69·GS 74
−12pp
- Q4·44.1
Skylar Diggins makes 6-foot two point shot (Ezi Magbegor assists)
·
SEA 69·GS 74
−3pp
- Q4·50.1
Temi Fagbenle makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
SEA 67·GS 74
+9pp
- Q4·50.1
Storm Full timeout
SEA 67·GS 72
−3pp
- Q4·50.1
(00:50.5) [Storm] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
SEA 67·GS 72
−3pp
- Q4·51.0
Temi Fagbenle offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SEA 67·GS 72
+5pp
- Q4·52.0
Temi Fagbenle misses 6-foot two point shot
SEA 67·GS 72
−3pp
- Q4·1:15
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
SEA 67·GS 72
+2pp
- Q4·1:17
Ezi Magbegor misses 11-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
SEA 67·GS 72
+18pp
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
GS
Home
25-62
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-58
40
FG %
48
8-26
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
3-18
12-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-19
19
Assists
21
16
Turnovers
18
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.3± 7.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Mackenzie HolmesSEA5.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
GS
41.6%
FG%
44.7
41.3%
34.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶36.1%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶86.4
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.1
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.1