May 22, 25sim 98
381
8(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6MIN
CON
0-3
7076
MIN
4-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Connecticut Sun, 76–70.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Marina Mabrey
G · #3
13.1Game score
22
Pts
8
Reb
6
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
31.2Game score
33
Pts
11
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON0-3
7076
MIN4-0
CON0-3MIN4-0
CON
0-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -16 | |
| 28 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 31 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 28 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 21 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10 | |
| 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -3 | |
| 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | |
| Team | 70 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 21 | ||
| DNP: R. Marshall, K. Diaby | ||||||||
MIN
4-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +8 | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -11 | |
| 38 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +8 | |
| 26 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 23 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +8 | |
| 25 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +17 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 30 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +15 | |
| Team | 76 | 31 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 15 | ||
| DNP: A. Kosu, M. Badiane, K. McBride | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
39
22
Ast
21
Season series
MIN wins series 3-0
May 23CON70@MIN76today
CON70@MIN76todayJun 29CON63@MIN102
CON63@MIN102Aug 30MIN94@CON70
MIN94@CON70Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 1:05
CONM. Mabrey
GGame leader · 31 min
22 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
33 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
MIN beat CON 76-70. N. Collier paced them with 33 PTS, 11 REB, 3 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 30 REB · 12 AST
GS 35
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST
GS 9
MINstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST
GS 36
Bench(4)
28 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST
GS 25
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMIN2nd Quarter · 5:47 · 32-25
+18pp→ 57% WP
Jessica Shepard · enters the game for Alanna Smith
MIN4th Quarter · 1:38 · 68-66
+13pp→ 56% WP
Tina Charles · personal foul
MIN4th Quarter · 1:05 · 68-71
+26pp→ 86% WP
Natisha Hiedeman · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Karlie Samuelson assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 19 | 26 | 11 | 14 | 70 |
| MIN | 15 | 20 | 14 | 27 | 76 |
Period scoring
CON won 2 · MIN won 2
19
15
Q1
Rivers 5
Shepard 5
26
20
Q2
Peters 8
Collier 13
11
14
Q3
Mabrey 5
Collier 7
14
27
Q4
Mabrey 7
Collier 11
CON
MIN
Shooting comparison
CON
MIN
41%
27-66
FG
39%
25-64
33%
10-30
3PT
29%
7-24
100%
6-6
FT
73%
19-26
Play-by-play · 399 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 70·MIN 76
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 70·MIN 76
- Q4·0.0
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 70·MIN 76
- Q4·0.1
Jacy Sheldon misses 11-foot two point shot
CON 70·MIN 76
- Q4·1.0
Jacy Sheldon offensive rebound
CON 70·MIN 76
- Q4·3.1
Marina Mabrey misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CON 70·MIN 76
+0.8pp
- Q4·9.1
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 70·MIN 76
- Q4·9.1
Lynx offensive team rebound
CON 70·MIN 75
- Q4·9.1
Napheesa Collier misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 70·MIN 75
- Q4·9.1
Olivia Nelson-Ododa personal take foul
CON 70·MIN 75
+0.5pp
- Q4·9.1
Napheesa Collier defensive rebound
CON 70·MIN 75
+0.8pp
- Q4·12.1
Marina Mabrey misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 70·MIN 75
+13pp
- Q4·20.1
Natisha Hiedeman personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 70·MIN 75
−12pp
- Q4·23.0
Sun timeout
CON 70·MIN 75
- Q4·23.0
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 70·MIN 75
−0.6pp
- Q4·23.0
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 70·MIN 74
- Q4·23.0
Tina Charles personal take foul
CON 70·MIN 73
+2pp
- Q4·28.1
Jacy Sheldon bad pass (Bridget Carleton steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 70·MIN 73
+6pp
- Q4·31.1
Sun Full timeout
CON 70·MIN 73
- Q4·31.1
Natisha Hiedeman makes 3-foot two point shot (Jessica Shepard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 70·MIN 73
+8pp
- Q4·42.1
Olivia Nelson-Ododa enters the game for Haley Peters
·
CON 70·MIN 71
- Q4·42.1
Lynx timeout
CON 70·MIN 71
- Q4·42.1
Marina Mabrey makes driving layup
CON 70·MIN 71
−4pp
- Q4·1:04
Sun Full timeout
CON 68·MIN 71
- Q4·1:05
Natisha Hiedeman makes 28-foot three point jumper (Karlie Samuelson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 68·MIN 71
+26pp
- Q4·1:15
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
CON 68·MIN 68
+2pp
- Q4·1:18
Marina Mabrey misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CON 68·MIN 68
+6pp
- Q4·1:38
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 68·MIN 68
−6pp
- Q4·1:38
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 68·MIN 67
+2pp
- Q4·1:38
Tina Charles personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 68·MIN 66
+13pp
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
27-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-64
41
FG %
39
10-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-24
6-6
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-26
22
Assists
21
21
Turnovers
15
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 10 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN14.3± 9.2low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
MIN
40.7%
FG%
44.9
▶51.7%
26.0%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.3%
74.7
PPG
86.0
▶89.7
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
14.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.4