May 23, 25sim 99
999
19(H)74
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6ATL
ATL
4-2
8882
LA
2-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 88–82.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
26.1Game score
25
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
30.9Game score
28
Pts
6
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL4-2
8882
LA2-4
ATL4-2LA2-4
ATL
4-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +1 | |
| 35 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +11 | |
| 36 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 25 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | |
| 38 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 26 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +7 | |
| 14 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +12 | |
| Team | 88 | 32 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 16 | ||
LA
2-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 36 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 28 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -14 | |
| 27 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 37 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -3 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| Team | 82 | 28 | 23 | 12 | 1 | 13 | ||
| DNP: S. Feagin | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
45
26
Ast
23
Season series
ATL wins series 3-0
May 28ATL88@LA82today
ATL88@LA82todaySep 3LA75@ATL86
LA75@ATL86Sep 5LA85@ATL104
LA85@ATL104Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 7:18
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 36 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 36 min
28 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
ATL beat LA 88-82. A. Gray paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 24-16 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 21 REB · 22 AST
GS 50
Bench(4)
25 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
GS 25
LAstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST
GS 59
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 7:18 · 66-63
+20pp→ 34% WP
Rhyne Howard · misses 26-foot three point jumper
LA4th Quarter · 4:22 · 71-70
+13pp→ 37% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dearica Hamby assists)
LA4th Quarter · 3:16 · 76-72
+16pp→ 37% WP
Brionna Jones · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 16 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 88 |
| LA | 15 | 16 | 22 | 29 | 82 |
Period scoring
ATL won 3 · LA won 1
16
15
Q1
Gray 4
Plum 9
24
16
Q2
Howard 9
Plum 7
26
22
Q3
Gray 10
Hamby 10
22
29
Q4
Walker-Kimbrough 7
Hamby 10
ATL
LA
Shooting comparison
ATL
LA
47%
30-64
FG
45%
30-67
37%
11-30
3PT
42%
8-19
100%
17-17
FT
82%
14-17
Play-by-play · 384 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 88·LA 82
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 88·LA 82
- Q4·1.0
Dearica Hamby makes layup (Emma Cannon assists)
·
ATL 88·LA 82
- Q4·7.1
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 88·LA 80
- Q4·7.1
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
·
ATL 87·LA 80
- Q4·7.1
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
ATL 87·LA 80
- Q4·7.1
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
ATL 87·LA 80
- Q4·7.1
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 87·LA 80
- Q4·7.1
Emma Cannon enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
ATL 86·LA 80
- Q4·7.1
Azura Stevens personal foul
ATL 86·LA 80
−0.6pp
- Q4·16.1
Dearica Hamby makes two point shot
ATL 86·LA 80
- Q4·17.1
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
ATL 86·LA 78
- Q4·17.1
Kelsey Plum misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 86·LA 78
−0.6pp
- Q4·17.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 86·LA 78
- Q4·17.1
Allisha Gray shooting foul
ATL 86·LA 77
+0.5pp
- Q4·23.1
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
ATL 86·LA 77
- Q4·23.1
Sparks timeout
ATL 86·LA 77
- Q4·23.1
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 86·LA 77
- Q4·23.1
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 85·LA 77
- Q4·23.1
Julie Allemand personal foul
ATL 84·LA 77
- Q4·25.1
Julie Allemand personal foul
ATL 84·LA 77
- Q4·29.1
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
ATL 84·LA 77
- Q4·33.1
Kelsey Plum misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 84·LA 77
−2pp
- Q4·43.0
Naz Hillmon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 84·LA 77
−6pp
- Q4·59.0
Azura Stevens makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
ATL 81·LA 77
+5pp
- Q4·1:09
(01:09) [Sparks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Sparks] retain their timeout
ATL 81·LA 74
+3pp
- Q4·1:09
Sparks Full timeout
ATL 81·LA 74
−3pp
- Q4·1:12
Kelsey Plum defensive rebound
ATL 81·LA 74
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:16
Naz Hillmon misses driving layup
ATL 81·LA 74
+2pp
- Q4·1:32
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
ATL 81·LA 74
−0.8pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
LA
Home
30-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-67
47
FG %
45
11-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-19
17-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
14-17
26
Assists
23
16
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
LA
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶50.8%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶35.0%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶91.5
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.8
14.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.8