Jun 12, 25sim 96
697
17(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5PHX
CHI
0-4
8994
PHX
4-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Chicago Sky, 94–89.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Courtney Vandersloot
G · #22
16.6Game score
15
Pts
4
Reb
11
Ast
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
21.1Game score
10
Pts
7
Reb
15
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CHI0-4
8994
PHX4-1
CHI0-4PHX4-1
CHI
0-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -7 | |
| 27 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7 | |
| 36 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 32 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 33 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -12 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| Team | 89 | 42 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 16 | ||
| DNP: M. Westbeld, M. Jefferson, H. Van Lith | ||||||||
PHX
4-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +5 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 27 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +10 | |
| 33 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -13 | |
| 22 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 24 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +13 | |
| 17 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
| 12 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| Team | 94 | 30 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 9 | ||
| DNP: N. Mack, M. Musa, K. Copper | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
42
25
Ast
26
Season series
PHX wins series 4-0
May 28CHI89@PHX94today
CHI89@PHX94todayJun 21PHX107@CHI86
PHX107@CHI86Aug 3PHX83@CHI67
PHX83@CHI67Aug 29CHI79@PHX83
CHI79@PHX83Headlines · top performers
Game flowCHI ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 3:36
CHIC. Vandersloot
GGame leader · 36 min
15 PTS · 4 REB · 11 AST
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 35 min
10 PTS · 7 REB · 15 AST
How it ended
PHX beat CHI 94-89. A. Thomas led with 10 PTS, 7 REB, 15 AST. PHX outscored the other side 27-18 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 89% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 36 REB · 22 AST
GS 68
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 4
PHXstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 25 REB · 21 AST
GS 54
Bench(4)
35 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
GS 27
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 6:25 · 75-77
+14pp→ 63% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
PHX4th Quarter · 3:36 · 77-80
+17pp→ 73% WP
Kamilla Cardoso · misses 11-foot two point shot
PHX4th Quarter · 3:25 · 79-83
+15pp→ 75% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 21 | 23 | 27 | 18 | 89 |
| PHX | 17 | 21 | 29 | 27 | 94 |
Period scoring
CHI won 2 · PHX won 2
21
17
Q1
Atkins 10
Sabally 6
23
21
Q2
Vandersloot 7
Laksa 7
27
29
Q3
Nurse 6
Laksa 11
18
27
Q4
Cardoso 10
Makani 9
CHI
PHX
Shooting comparison
CHI
PHX
46%
33-71
FG
42%
33-78
29%
6-21
3PT
40%
16-40
85%
17-20
FT
63%
12-19
Play-by-play · 417 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 89·PHX 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 89·PHX 94
- Q4·3.0
Mercury timeout
CHI 89·PHX 94
- Q4·3.0
Kamilla Cardoso makes layup (Angel Reese assists)
·
CHI 89·PHX 94
- Q4·3.1
Angel Reese offensive rebound
CHI 87·PHX 94
- Q4·6.2
Ariel Atkins misses 37-foot three point jumper
CHI 87·PHX 94
- Q4·11.1
Kamilla Cardoso vs. Satou Sabally (Courtney Vandersloot gains possession)
· ·
CHI 87·PHX 94
- Q4·13.1
Kamilla Cardoso offensive rebound
CHI 87·PHX 94
- Q4·17.0
Ariel Atkins misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 87·PHX 94
+1pp
- Q4·26.0
Kathryn Westbeld makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kitija Laksa assists)
· ·
CHI 87·PHX 94
+2pp
- Q4·39.1
Kia Nurse personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 87·PHX 91
+8pp
- Q4·43.0
Kamilla Cardoso makes 1-foot layup (Courtney Vandersloot assists)
·
CHI 87·PHX 91
−4pp
- Q4·52.1
Sky timeout
CHI 85·PHX 91
- Q4·52.1
shot clock turnover
CHI 85·PHX 91
−4pp
- Q4·55.1
Mercury Full timeout
CHI 85·PHX 91
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:16
Kamilla Cardoso makes two point shot
CHI 85·PHX 91
−2pp
- Q4·1:16
Kamilla Cardoso offensive rebound
CHI 83·PHX 91
−1pp
- Q4·1:19
Angel Reese misses 1-foot two point shot
CHI 83·PHX 91
+2pp
- Q4·1:30
Satou Sabally makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 83·PHX 91
+6pp
- Q4·1:49
Kia Nurse makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 83·PHX 88
+5pp
- Q4·1:49
Kia Nurse makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 82·PHX 88
−1pp
- Q4·1:49
Satou Sabally personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 81·PHX 88
−6pp
- Q4·1:59
Sami Whitcomb enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
CHI 81·PHX 88
- Q4·1:59
Sky Full timeout
CHI 81·PHX 88
- Q4·1:59
Alyssa Thomas makes driving layup
CHI 81·PHX 88
+3pp
- Q4·2:13
Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound
·
CHI 81·PHX 86
+2pp
- Q4·2:15
Kathryn Westbeld blocks Courtney Vandersloot 's 4-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
CHI 81·PHX 86
+6pp
- Q4·2:35
Monique Akoa Makani makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 81·PHX 86
+13pp
- Q4·2:43
Monique Akoa Makani defensive rebound
CHI 81·PHX 83
+2pp
- Q4·2:45
Kamilla Cardoso misses layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 81·PHX 83
+7pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
33-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-78
46
FG %
42
6-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-40
17-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-19
25
Assists
26
16
Turnovers
9
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 11 players in cohort- Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.5± 5.1low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Skylar DigginsCHI5.4± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.4± 4.7low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 1.4low
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.3± 1.2low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
PHX
41.1%
FG%
44.7
▶42.3%
25.9%
3PT %
32.6
▶31.4%
82.8
PPG
85.4
▶83.7
19.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
11.0
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
12.4