May 23, 25sim 98
1870
8(H)76
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4MIN
DAL
0-3
8185
MIN
3-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Dallas Wings, 85–81. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Arike Ogunbowale
G · #24
12.7Game score
21
Pts
2
Reb
5
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
27.0Game score
28
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL0-3
8185
MIN3-0
DAL0-3MIN3-0
DAL
0-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 25 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 35 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 27 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 37 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| Team | 81 | 27 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 11 | ||
| DNP: L. Geiselsoder, A. James, J. Quinerly | ||||||||
MIN
3-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 | |
| 29 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -11 | |
| 37 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +5 | |
| 33 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| 18 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 19 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +17 | |
| 27 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +19 | |
| Team | 85 | 43 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 17 | ||
| DNP: A. Pili, A. Kosu, M. Badiane, K. McBride | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
47
20
Ast
27
Season series
MIN wins series 4-0
May 16MIN99@DAL84
MIN99@DAL84May 22DAL81@MIN85today
DAL81@MIN85todayJun 8MIN81@DAL65
MIN81@DAL65Sep 2DAL71@MIN96
DAL71@MIN96Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 39.1
DALA. Ogunbowale
GGame leader · 35 min
21 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 37 min
28 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat DAL 85-81. N. Collier paced them with 28 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 19 REB · 18 AST
GS 47
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST
GS 10
MINstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 30 REB · 14 AST
GS 57
Bench(3)
13 PTS · 13 REB · 13 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDAL4th Quarter · 1:15 · 76-81
+11pp→ 23% WP
Napheesa Collier · shooting foul
DAL4th Quarter · 39.1 · 81-83
+13pp→ 22% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
MIN4th Quarter · 17.1 · 81-83
+10pp→ 94% WP
Arike Ogunbowale · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 81 |
| MIN | 21 | 26 | 23 | 15 | 85 |
Period scoring
DAL won 1 · MIN won 3
18
21
Q1
Ogunbowale 9
Collier 8
22
26
Q2
Harris 3
Smith 8
22
23
Q3
Bueckers 6
Collier 12
19
15
Q4
Hines-Allen 8
Collier 8
DAL
MIN
Shooting comparison
DAL
MIN
41%
29-71
FG
47%
28-59
36%
12-33
3PT
36%
9-25
79%
11-14
FT
74%
20-27
Play-by-play · 386 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 81·MIN 85
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 81·MIN 85
- Q4·1.1
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
DAL 81·MIN 85
+0.9pp
- Q4·3.1
Paige Bueckers misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·MIN 85
+8pp
- Q4·17.1
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 81·MIN 85
−4pp
- Q4·17.1
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 81·MIN 84
+1pp
- Q4·17.1
Arike Ogunbowale personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·MIN 83
+10pp
- Q4·18.1
Courtney Williams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 81·MIN 83
+9pp
- Q4·20.0
Courtney Williams misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 81·MIN 83
−4pp
- Q4·39.1
Arike Ogunbowale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 81·MIN 83
−13pp
- Q4·45.0
Wings Full timeout
DAL 78·MIN 83
- Q4·45.0
Napheesa Collier traveling
DAL 78·MIN 83
−4pp
- Q4·46.1
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
DAL 78·MIN 83
+1pp
- Q4·50.0
Paige Bueckers misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 78·MIN 83
+4pp
- Q4·58.1
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 78·MIN 83
−4pp
- Q4·58.1
Napheesa Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 78·MIN 82
+1pp
- Q4·58.1
Myisha Hines-Allen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 78·MIN 81
+9pp
- Q4·1:15
Lynx timeout
DAL 78·MIN 81
- Q4·1:15
Myisha Hines-Allen makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 78·MIN 81
+7pp
- Q4·1:15
Myisha Hines-Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 77·MIN 81
−2pp
- Q4·1:15
Napheesa Collier shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 76·MIN 81
−11pp
- Q4·1:24
5 second violation
DAL 76·MIN 81
−5pp
- Q4·1:24
Lynx Full timeout
DAL 76·MIN 81
- Q4·1:24
Myisha Hines-Allen makes free throw 1 of 1
DAL 76·MIN 81
+4pp
- Q4·1:24
Courtney Williams shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 75·MIN 81
−8pp
- Q4·1:24
Myisha Hines-Allen makes two point shot
DAL 75·MIN 81
−1pp
- Q4·1:30
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
DAL 73·MIN 81
- Q4·1:32
Natisha Hiedeman misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 73·MIN 81
−1pp
- Q4·1:32
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 73·MIN 81
- Q4·1:32
Arike Ogunbowale personal foul
DAL 73·MIN 80
+0.9pp
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
29-71
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-59
41
FG %
47
12-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-25
11-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-27
20
Assists
27
11
Turnovers
17
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 14 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
MIN
46.6%
FG%
44.7
▶50.1%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.5%
88.9
PPG
85.4
88.4
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
21.1
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.3