May 24, 25sim 98
375
20(H)83
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+24ATL
CON
0-4
5579
ATL
3-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Connecticut Sun, 79–55. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CON · top performer
Olivia Nelson-Ododa
C · #10
7.6Game score
11
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
16.9Game score
18
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Connecticut Sun at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
CON0-4
5579
ATL3-2
CON0-4ATL3-2
CON
0-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -22 | |
| 21 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -19 | |
| 34 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 | |
| 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -16 | |
| 28 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 11 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 19 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 55 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 9 | ||
ATL
3-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 27 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +17 | |
| 33 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +20 | |
| 36 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +17 | |
| 31 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +9 | |
| 29 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +27 | |
| 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +16 | |
| Team | 79 | 52 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 14 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
31
FG %
41
14
Ast
20
Season series
ATL wins series 4-1
May 25CON55@ATL79today
CON55@ATL79todayJun 6ATL76@CON84
ATL76@CON84Sep 1ATL93@CON76
ATL93@CON76Sep 8CON62@ATL87
CON62@ATL87Sep 10ATL88@CON72
ATL88@CON72Headlines · top performers
Game flowCON ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 17pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:42
CONO. Nelson-Ododa
CGame leader · 21 min
11 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 33 min
18 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
ATL beat CON 79-55. A. Gray led with 18 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. ATL outscored the other side 26-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs CON
Starters vs bench
production by unitCONstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
40 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST
GS 17
Bench(6)
15 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
GS 8
ATLstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 39 REB · 16 AST
GS 49
Bench(3)
12 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON2nd Quarter · 1:03 · 33-34
+9pp→ 30% WP
Aneesah Morrow · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tina Charles assists)
ATL3rd Quarter · 5:21 · 43-51
+8pp→ 87% WP
Brionna Jones · personal foul
ATL3rd Quarter · 3:42 · 44-55
+17pp→ 94% WP
Tina Charles · misses driving layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 16 | 17 | 15 | 7 | 55 |
| ATL | 21 | 16 | 26 | 16 | 79 |
Period scoring
CON won 1 · ATL won 3
16
21
Q1
Mabrey 6
Hillmon 7
17
16
Q2
Diaby 5
Gray 7
15
26
Q3
Nelson-Ododa 9
Coffey 11
7
16
Q4
Charles 3
Howard 6
CON
ATL
Shooting comparison
CON
ATL
31%
21-67
FG
41%
29-71
27%
4-15
3PT
29%
10-35
64%
9-14
FT
79%
11-14
Play-by-play · 385 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 55·ATL 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 55·ATL 79
- Q4·2.0
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 79
- Q4·3.0
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses driving layup
CON 55·ATL 79
- Q4·16.2
Nia Coffey makes driving layup
CON 55·ATL 79
- Q4·17.0
Nia Coffey offensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·20.1
Nia Coffey misses 23-foot three point jumper
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·31.2
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·40.1
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·43.1
Marina Mabrey misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·50.1
Olivia Nelson-Ododa defensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·53.1
Taylor Thierry misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·1:00
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough defensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·1:04
Olivia Nelson-Ododa misses 14-foot two point shot
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·1:16
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nia Coffey assists)
·
CON 55·ATL 77
- Q4·1:18
Nia Coffey offensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:21
Nia Coffey misses 23-foot three point jumper
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:27
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:31
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough blocks Marina Mabrey 's 2-foot layup
·
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:43
Naz Hillmon turnover
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:43
Naz Hillmon offensive foul
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:50
Taylor Thierry enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:50
Nia Coffey enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:50
Robyn Parks personal foul
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·1:58
Brionna Jones defensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·2:02
Robyn Parks misses 24-foot three point jumper
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·2:10
Marina Mabrey offensive rebound
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·2:13
Marina Mabrey misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·2:26
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 55·ATL 74
- Q4·2:26
Rayah Marshall enters the game for Tina Charles
·
CON 55·ATL 73
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
21-67
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-71
31
FG %
41
4-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-35
9-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-14
14
Assists
20
9
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
- Brittney GrinerCON13.6± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.4± 5.2low
- Brittney GrinerCON5.2± 1.1low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 0.8low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
ATL
40.7%
FG%
44.7
▶43.6%
26.0%
3PT %
32.6
▶31.4%
74.7
PPG
85.4
▶83.9
17.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.9
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.9