May 31, 25sim 96
681
17(H)96
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9PHX
GS
2-5
7786
PHX
6-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Golden State Valkyries, 86–77.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Temi Fagbenle
C · #14
13.2Game score
12
Pts
11
Reb
1
Ast
PHX · top performer
Lexi Held
G · #1
15.9Game score
24
Pts
0
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS2-5
7786
PHX6-3
GS2-5PHX6-3
GS
2-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 32 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
| 30 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -18 | |
| 22 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 28 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -13 | |
| 28 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +7 | |
| 24 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | |
| 14 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| Team | 77 | 29 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 19 | ||
| DNP: K. Linskens, T. Hayes | ||||||||
PHX
6-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | |
| 25 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +18 | |
| 30 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | |
| 26 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
| 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 27 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
| 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4 | |
| Team | 86 | 36 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 17 | ||
| DNP: A. Thomas, N. Mack, K. Copper, M. McConnell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
46
17
Ast
15
Season series
PHX wins series 4-0
Jun 6GS77@PHX86today
GS77@PHX86todayJul 15PHX78@GS77
PHX78@GS77Aug 20PHX98@GS91
PHX98@GS91Aug 23GS72@PHX81
GS72@PHX81Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 56.1
GST. Fagbenle
CGame leader · 28 min
12 PTS · 11 REB · 1 AST
PHXL. Held
GGame leader · 27 min
24 PTS · 0 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
PHX beat GS 86-77. L. Held led with 24 PTS, 0 REB, 2 AST. PHX outscored the other side 25-16 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST
GS 40
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 8 REB · 11 AST
GS 14
PHXstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
45 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST
GS 28
Bench(4)
41 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS1st Quarter · 4:16 · 9-7
+24pp→ 41% WP
Kalani Brown · turnover (lane violation)
PHX4th Quarter · 1:11 · 76-77
+24pp→ 65% WP
Lexi Held · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Satou Sabally assists)
GS4th Quarter · 56.1 · 76-77
+25pp→ 60% WP
Sami Whitcomb · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 16 | 22 | 23 | 16 | 77 |
| PHX | 21 | 16 | 24 | 25 | 86 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · PHX won 3
16
21
Q1
Burton 8
Held 8
22
16
Q2
Fagbenle 8
Martin 17
23
24
Q3
Thornton 7
Sabally 8
16
25
Q4
Burton 4
Held 9
GS
PHX
Shooting comparison
GS
PHX
42%
25-60
FG
46%
30-65
31%
9-29
3PT
44%
11-25
72%
18-25
FT
75%
15-20
Play-by-play · 402 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 77·PHX 86
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 77·PHX 86
- Q4·0.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 77·PHX 86
- Q4·0.0
Cecilia Zandalasini misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 77·PHX 86
- Q4·3.1
Temi Fagbenle offensive rebound
GS 77·PHX 86
- Q4·6.1
Janelle Salaun misses 28-foot three point jumper
GS 77·PHX 86
- Q4·12.1
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 77·PHX 86
- Q4·12.1
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 77·PHX 85
- Q4·12.1
Kayla Thornton personal foul
GS 77·PHX 84
- Q4·14.1
Stephanie Talbot bad pass (Monique Akoa Makani steals)
·
GS 77·PHX 84
+0.6pp
- Q4·16.1
Golden State Valkyries timeout
GS 77·PHX 84
- Q4·16.1
Lexi Held makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 77·PHX 84
- Q4·16.1
Lexi Held makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 77·PHX 83
- Q4·16.1
Cecilia Zandalasini personal foul
GS 77·PHX 82
+1pp
- Q4·17.0
Stephanie Talbot out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 77·PHX 82
+2pp
- Q4·17.0
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Julie Vanloo
·
GS 77·PHX 82
- Q4·17.0
Kayla Thornton enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
GS 77·PHX 82
- Q4·17.0
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 77·PHX 82
- Q4·17.0
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 77·PHX 82
−2pp
- Q4·17.0
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 77·PHX 81
+0.7pp
- Q4·17.0
Temi Fagbenle personal foul
GS 77·PHX 80
+4pp
- Q4·17.1
Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound
GS 77·PHX 80
+3pp
- Q4·20.0
Veronica Burton misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 77·PHX 80
+11pp
- Q4·33.1
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
GS 77·PHX 80
−8pp
- Q4·33.1
Cecilia Zandalasini shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 77·PHX 79
+19pp
- Q4·33.1
Satou Sabally makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 77·PHX 79
+12pp
- Q4·33.1
Satou Sabally offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 77·PHX 77
+8pp
- Q4·35.0
Satou Sabally misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 77·PHX 77
−8pp
- Q4·54.1
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
GS 77·PHX 77
- Q4·56.1
Veronica Burton misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 77·PHX 77
+17pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
25-60
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-65
42
FG %
46
9-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-25
18-25
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-20
17
Assists
15
19
Turnovers
17
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Gabby WilliamsGS2.9± 2.4low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
PHX
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶42.3%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
86.4
PPG
◀
85.4
83.7
19.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
12.4