May 25, 25sim 99
1662
11(H)68
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3PHX
LA
1-2
8689
PHX
2-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Los Angeles Sparks, 89–86. Decided by 3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Azura Stevens
F · #23
22.2Game score
23
Pts
17
Reb
0
Ast
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
19.1Game score
25
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA1-2
8689
PHX2-0
LA1-2PHX2-0
LA
1-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 30 | 23 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7 | |
| 30 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 40 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -3 | |
| 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | |
| 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10 | |
| Team | 86 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 16 | ||
| DNP: C. Brink, R. Jackson, R. Burrell | ||||||||
PHX
2-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 19 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -18 | |
| 29 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +17 | |
| 28 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | |
| 24 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 14 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| Team | 89 | 33 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 12 | ||
| DNP: N. Mack, K. Copper | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
42
18
Ast
22
Season series
PHX wins series 3-1
May 22LA86@PHX89today
LA86@PHX89todayJun 1PHX85@LA80
PHX85@LA80Aug 27PHX92@LA84
PHX92@LA84Sep 10LA88@PHX83
LA88@PHX83Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 50pp · 4th Quarter · 3.0
LAA. Stevens
FGame leader · 30 min
23 PTS · 17 REB · 0 AST
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 29 min
25 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
PHX beat LA 89-86. S. Sabally paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. PHX outscored the other side 24-7 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST
GS 48
Bench(5)
13 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
GS 7
PHXstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST
GS 55
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLA4th Quarter · 2:35 · 75-78
+38pp→ 41% WP
Satou Sabally · enters the game for Kathryn Westbeld
PHX3rd Quarter · 3:56 · 50-55
+21pp→ 69% WP
Julie Allemand · enters the game for Odyssey Sims
PHX4th Quarter · 3.0 · 86-87
+50pp→ 97% WP
Liatu King · personal take foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 19 | 27 | 7 | 33 | 86 |
| PHX | 23 | 19 | 24 | 23 | 89 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · PHX won 2
19
23
Q1
Plum 6
Sabally 9
27
19
Q2
Stevens 12
Makani 5
7
24
Q3
Cannon 3
Sabally 7
33
23
Q4
Plum 14
King 32
LA
PHX
Shooting comparison
LA
PHX
41%
28-68
FG
42%
28-67
34%
10-29
3PT
33%
11-33
77%
20-26
FT
81%
22-27
Play-by-play · 437 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 86·PHX 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 86·PHX 89
- Q4·0.0
Sparks offensive team rebound
LA 86·PHX 89
- Q4·0.1
Kelsey Plum misses 41-foot three point jumper
LA 86·PHX 89
+3pp
- Q4·3.0
Satou Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 86·PHX 89
−2pp
- Q4·3.0
Dearica Hamby enters the game for Liatu King
·
LA 86·PHX 88
- Q4·3.0
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 86·PHX 88
+0.7pp
- Q4·3.0
Liatu King personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LA 86·PHX 87
+50pp
- Q4·4.0
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 86·PHX 87
- Q4·4.0
Liatu King enters the game for Julie AllemandBIG MOMENT
·
LA 86·PHX 87
−21pp
- Q4·4.0
Mercury Full timeout
LA 86·PHX 87
−3pp
- Q4·4.0
(00:04) [Sparks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
LA 86·PHX 87
−39pp
- Q4·4.0
Kelsey Plum makes 20-foot pullup jump shot
LA 86·PHX 87
+3pp
- Q4·13.0
Sparks Full timeout
LA 84·PHX 87
- Q4·13.0
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
LA 84·PHX 87
+0.7pp
- Q4·14.1
Satou Sabally misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 84·PHX 87
−10pp
- Q4·14.1
Azura Stevens enters the game for Liatu King
·
LA 84·PHX 87
- Q4·14.1
Dearica Hamby enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
LA 84·PHX 87
- Q4·14.1
Satou Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 84·PHX 87
+0.9pp
- Q4·14.1
Kelsey Plum personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LA 84·PHX 86
+10pp
- Q4·15.1
Alexa Held enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
LA 84·PHX 86
- Q4·15.1
Mercury timeout
LA 84·PHX 86
- Q4·15.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 3 of 3
LA 84·PHX 86
- Q4·15.1
Liatu King enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
LA 83·PHX 86
- Q4·15.1
Odyssey Sims enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 83·PHX 86
- Q4·15.1
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 83·PHX 86
+8pp
- Q4·15.1
Kelsey Plum misses free throw 2 of 3
LA 83·PHX 86
- Q4·15.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 3BIG MOMENT
LA 83·PHX 86
−10pp
- Q4·15.1
Monique Akoa Makani shooting foul
LA 82·PHX 86
−4pp
- Q4·17.1
Sparks timeout
LA 82·PHX 86
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
28-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-67
41
FG %
42
10-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-33
20-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-27
18
Assists
22
16
Turnovers
12
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 11 players in cohort
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
PHX
50.8%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.0%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
91.5
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
20.8
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
16.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9