May 22, 25sim 99
686
11(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+6PHX
WSH
2-3
6268
PHX
3-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Washington Mystics, 68–62.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer
Aaliyah Edwards
F · #24
6.9Game score
6
Pts
7
Reb
1
Ast
PHX · top performer
Monique Akoa Makani
G · #8
11.5Game score
13
Pts
1
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
WSH2-3
6268
PHX3-1
WSH2-3PHX3-1
WSH
2-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 26 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -10 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 28 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
USG%.28780 ORB%.03740 DRB%.12540 | ||||||||
| 23 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 33 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -12 | |
| 15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | |
| 15 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | |
| 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -11 | |
| Team | 62 | 41 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 27 | ||
| DNP: S. Austin, G. Amoore | ||||||||
PHX
3-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +14 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 27 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 31 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +9 | |
| 29 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 22 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | |
| 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| Team | 68 | 26 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DNP: N. Mack, M. Musa, K. Copper | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
33
16
Ast
15
Season series
PHX wins series 3-0
May 25WSH62@PHX68today
WSH62@PHX68todayJul 27PHX88@WSH72
PHX88@WSH72Sep 4PHX75@WSH69
PHX75@WSH69Headlines · top performers
Game flowWSH ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 20pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:49
WSHA. Edwards
FGame leader · 15 min
6 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
PHXM. Akoa Makani
GGame leader · 22 min
13 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
PHX beat WSH 68-62. M. Akoa Makani led with 13 PTS, 1 REB, 2 AST. PHX outscored the other side 19-7 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs WSH
Starters vs bench
production by unitWSHstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
37 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST
GS 11
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 19 REB · 3 AST
GS 16
PHXstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST
GS 35
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX2nd Quarter · 4:49 · 17-24
+20pp→ 81% WP
Kiki Iriafen · bad pass (Monique Akoa Makani steals)
PHX3rd Quarter · 4:39 · 28-38
+18pp→ 89% WP
Kalani Brown · enters the game for Kathryn Westbeld
WSH4th Quarter · 3:27 · 58-55
+20pp→ 74% WP
Satou Sabally · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 7 | 22 | 18 | 62 |
| PHX | 13 | 19 | 14 | 22 | 68 |
Period scoring
WSH won 2 · PHX won 2
15
13
Q1
Sabally 10
Iriafen 11
7
19
Q2
Citron 3
Laksa 19
22
14
Q3
Citron 7
Edwards 13
18
22
Q4
Melbourne 6
Thomas 7
WSH
PHX
Shooting comparison
WSH
PHX
35%
19-54
FG
33%
21-63
25%
6-24
3PT
32%
11-34
86%
18-21
FT
79%
15-19
Play-by-play · 409 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 62·PHX 68
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 62·PHX 68
- Q4·3.0
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 62·PHX 68
- Q4·3.0
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 62·PHX 67
- Q4·3.0
Emily Engstler personal take foul
WSH 62·PHX 66
+2pp
- Q4·6.1
Emily Engstler vs. Satou Sabally (Alyssa Thomas gains possession)
· ·
WSH 62·PHX 66
+0.7pp
- Q4·9.1
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
WSH 62·PHX 66
+2pp
- Q4·11.1
Sonia Citron misses 26-foot three point jumper
WSH 62·PHX 66
+4pp
- Q4·14.1
Mystics timeout
WSH 62·PHX 66
- Q4·14.1
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 62·PHX 66
−4pp
- Q4·14.1
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 62·PHX 65
+1pp
- Q4·14.1
Sonia Citron personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 62·PHX 64
+13pp
- Q4·25.0
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
WSH 62·PHX 64
+4pp
- Q4·26.1
Brittney Sykes misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
WSH 62·PHX 64
+11pp
- Q4·32.1
Mystics Full timeout
WSH 62·PHX 64
- Q4·32.1
Alyssa Thomas turnover
WSH 62·PHX 64
- Q4·32.1
Alyssa Thomas offensive foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 62·PHX 64
−12pp
- Q4·32.1
Mercury Full timeout
WSH 62·PHX 64
- Q4·33.1
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
WSH 62·PHX 64
+4pp
- Q4·36.1
Brittney Sykes misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 62·PHX 64
+11pp
- Q4·46.1
Brittney Sykes defensive rebound
WSH 62·PHX 64
−3pp
- Q4·48.1
Monique Akoa Makani misses 23-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 62·PHX 64
−8pp
- Q4·54.1
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
WSH 62·PHX 64
+3pp
- Q4·56.0
Brittney Sykes misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
WSH 62·PHX 64
+10pp
- Q4·1:11
Monique Akoa Makani makes 25-foot three point jumper (Satou Sabally assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 62·PHX 64
+15pp
- Q4·1:23
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 62·PHX 61
+8pp
- Q4·1:23
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 61·PHX 61
−2pp
- Q4·1:23
Monique Akoa Makani personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 60·PHX 61
−14pp
- Q4·1:30
Kathryn Westbeld makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 60·PHX 61
+16pp
- Q4·1:41
Kiki Iriafen makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 60·PHX 58
+9pp
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
19-54
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
21-63
35
FG %
33
6-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-34
18-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-19
16
Assists
15
27
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 12 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28780
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
- Shakira AustinWSH2.9± 2.6low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Kyara LinskensPHX0.8± 1.2low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Rori HarmonWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
PHX
44.8%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
28.8%
3PT %
33.0
▶32.3%
82.8
PPG
86.0
▶85.6
17.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶18.1
15.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9