Jun 8, 25sim 97
579
19(H)52
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8GS
GS
4-5
8981
LA
3-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
olden State Valkyries went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 89–81 in overtime.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Janelle Salaun
F · #13
16.0Game score
21
Pts
8
Reb
1
Ast
LA · top performer
Dearica Hamby
F · #5
15.3Game score
20
Pts
9
Reb
5
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final / OT
GS4-5
8981
LA3-7
GS4-5LA3-7
GS
4-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 35 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 39 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +17 | |
| 28 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | +14 | |
| 32 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 32 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 17 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11 | |
| Team | 89 | 49 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 13 | ||
| DNP: S. Talbot, L. Amihere | ||||||||
LA
3-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 39 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | |
| 34 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -22 | |
| 35 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | |
| 31 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -15 | |
| 41 | 24 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | |
| 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 19 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | |
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| Team | 81 | 34 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 13 | ||
| DNP: S. Feagin, L. King | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
39
20
Ast
23
Season series
GS wins series 3-1
May 17LA84@GS67
LA84@GS67May 24GS82@LA73
GS82@LA73Jun 10GS89@LA81today
GS89@LA81todayAug 10LA59@GS72
LA59@GS72Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ LA
Biggest swing: 30pp · 4th Quarter · 37.1
GSJ. Salaun
FGame leader · 39 min
21 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST
LAD. Hamby
FGame leader · 39 min
20 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
GS beat LA 89-81. J. Salaun led with 21 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. GS outscored the other side 11-3 in OT.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LA vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 39 REB · 17 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
25 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
GS 13
LAstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST
GS 42
Bench(4)
18 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS4th Quarter · 47.1 · 74-75
+16pp→ 70% WP
Rickea Jackson · personal foul
LA4th Quarter · 37.1 · 76-78
+30pp→ 61% WP
Kelsey Plum · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Odyssey Sims assists)
GS4th Quarter · 2.0 · 78-78
+30pp→ 51% WP
Kelsey Plum · misses driving floating jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 25 | 15 | 25 | 13 | 11 | 89 |
| LA | 23 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 81 |
Period scoring
GS won 3 · LA won 1
25
23
Q1
Fagbenle 8
Hamby 9
15
21
Q2
Salaun 5
Hamby 6
25
21
Q3
Salaun 8
Sims 4
13
13
Q4
Thornton 4
Plum 5
11
3
OT
Thornton 5
Plum 2
GS
LA
Shooting comparison
GS
LA
40%
32-80
FG
39%
28-72
16%
5-32
3PT
24%
6-25
87%
20-23
FT
76%
19-25
Play-by-play · 440 plays
period
event
player
- OT·0.0
End of Game
GS 89·LA 81
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
GS 89·LA 81
- OT·6.1
Temi Fagbenle defensive rebound
GS 89·LA 81
- OT·8.0
Dearica Hamby misses two point shot
GS 89·LA 81
- OT·16.1
Sparks timeout
GS 89·LA 81
- OT·16.1
Veronica Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 89·LA 81
- OT·16.1
Veronica Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 88·LA 81
- OT·16.1
Julie Allemand enters the game for Kelsey Plum
·
GS 87·LA 81
- OT·16.1
Kelsey Plum personal foul
GS 87·LA 81
- OT·17.1
Dearica Hamby personal foul
GS 87·LA 81
−0.8pp
- OT·21.0
Dearica Hamby back court turnover
GS 87·LA 81
−2pp
- OT·27.0
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
GS 87·LA 81
+0.7pp
- OT·30.1
Kelsey Plum misses 28-foot three point jumper
GS 87·LA 81
−2pp
- OT·37.2
Sparks Full timeout
GS 87·LA 81
- OT·38.1
Kayla Thornton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 87·LA 81
−7pp
- OT·58.2
Kayla Thornton defensive rebound
GS 84·LA 81
−3pp
- OT·1:02
Dearica Hamby misses layupBIG MOMENT
GS 84·LA 81
−8pp
- OT·1:19
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
GS 84·LA 81
+7pp
- OT·1:41
Temi Fagbenle defensive rebound
GS 84·LA 81
−2pp
- OT·1:43
Dearica Hamby misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 84·LA 81
−6pp
- OT·1:44
Dearica Hamby offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 84·LA 81
+6pp
- OT·1:45
Temi Fagbenle blocks Kelsey Plum 's 5-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
GS 84·LA 81
−7pp
- OT·2:03
Janelle Salaun makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 84·LA 81
−8pp
- OT·2:04
Janelle Salaun offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 82·LA 81
−8pp
- OT·2:05
Temi Fagbenle misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 82·LA 81
+6pp
- OT·2:28
Kelsey Plum makes 11-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 82·LA 81
+6pp
- OT·2:42
Temi Fagbenle loose ball foul
GS 82·LA 79
+1pp
- OT·2:42
Sparks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 82·LA 79
+6pp
- OT·2:42
Kelsey Plum misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
GS 82·LA 79
−7pp
- OT·3:03
Kayla Thornton makes 4-foot two point shot (Veronica Burton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 82·LA 79
−8pp
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
LA
Home
32-80
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-72
40
FG %
39
5-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-25
20-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-25
20
Assists
23
13
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.4± 5.3low
- Dearica HambyLA16.0± 8.0low
Rebounds
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Erica WheelerLA5.1± 3.3low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
LA
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶50.7%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.3%
86.4
PPG
85.4
▶91.6
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
16.4