May 22, 25sim 98
686
11(H)89
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1ATL
ATL
1-1
9190
IND
1-1
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 91–90. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Brionna Jones
F · #24
18.1Game score
19
Pts
13
Reb
3
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
23.7Game score
24
Pts
10
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL1-1
9190
IND1-1
ATL1-1IND1-1
ATL
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +10 | |
| 31 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | |
| 36 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +8 | |
| 36 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 11 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -13 | |
| 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | |
| 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 91 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 11 | ||
| DNP: J. Canada | ||||||||
IND
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -19 | |
| 29 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +7 | |
| 37 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | |
| 33 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 38 | 27 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | |
| 29 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| Team | 90 | 32 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 14 | ||
| DNP: M. Timpson, S. Cunningham | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
49
19
Ast
18
Playoff series
IND wins series 2-1
Sep 14IND68@ATL80
IND68@ATL80Sep 16ATL60@IND77
ATL60@IND77Sep 18IND87@ATL85
IND87@ATL85Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ IND
Biggest swing: 46pp · 4th Quarter · 9.1
ATLB. Jones
FGame leader · 33 min
19 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 37 min
24 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
ATL beat IND 91-90. B. Jones led with 19 PTS, 13 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 25-15 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST
GS 60
Bench(5)
12 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
GS 12
INDstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 27 REB · 18 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
9 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND3rd Quarter · 10:00 · 44-42
+30pp→ 44% WP
DeWanna Bonner · enters the game for Lexie Hull
IND4th Quarter · 21.1 · 89-89
+30pp→ 87% WP
Brittney Griner · shooting foul
ATL4th Quarter · 9.1 · 89-90
+46pp→ 65% WP
Kelsey Mitchell · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 31 | 13 | 32 | 15 | 91 |
| IND | 23 | 19 | 23 | 25 | 90 |
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · IND won 2
31
23
Q1
Jones 11
Mitchell 6
13
19
Q2
Howard 7
Clark 11
32
23
Q3
Howard 9
Boston 11
15
25
Q4
Griner 6
Clark 8
ATL
IND
Shooting comparison
ATL
IND
43%
29-68
FG
49%
33-68
27%
8-30
3PT
47%
8-17
78%
25-32
FT
62%
16-26
Play-by-play · 429 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 91·IND 90
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
ATL 91·IND 90
−9pp
- Q4·3.1
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
ATL 91·IND 90
−5pp
- Q4·4.1
Natasha Howard misses 12-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 91·IND 90
−10pp
- Q4·5.1
Natasha Howard offensive rebound
·
ATL 91·IND 90
+2pp
- Q4·7.0
Nia Coffey blocks Natasha Howard 's 2-foot hook shotBIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 91·IND 90
−21pp
- Q4·9.1
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
·
ATL 91·IND 90
- Q4·9.1
Fever timeout
ATL 91·IND 90
- Q4·9.1
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 91·IND 90
+12pp
- Q4·9.1
Caitlin Clark enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
ATL 90·IND 90
- Q4·9.1
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
·
ATL 90·IND 90
−4pp
- Q4·9.1
Kelsey Mitchell shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·IND 90
−46pp
- Q4·21.1
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 89·IND 90
+24pp
- Q4·21.1
DeWanna Bonner enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
ATL 89·IND 89
- Q4·21.1
Fever offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·IND 89
−24pp
- Q4·21.1
Aliyah Boston misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 89·IND 89
−6pp
- Q4·21.1
Brionna Jones enters the game for Brittney Griner
·
ATL 89·IND 89
- Q4·21.1
Brittney Griner shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·IND 89
+30pp
- Q4·31.0
Lexie Hull offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·IND 89
+6pp
- Q4·32.1
Caitlin Clark misses 16-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·IND 89
−7pp
- Q4·39.2
Aliyah Boston defensive rebound
ATL 89·IND 89
+2pp
- Q4·44.0
Allisha Gray misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 89·IND 89
+5pp
- Q4·1:04
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup (Aliyah Boston assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 89·IND 89
+7pp
- Q4·1:16
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
ATL 89·IND 87
- Q4·1:16
Fever Full timeout
ATL 89·IND 87
- Q4·1:16
Brionna Jones travelingBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·IND 87
+12pp
- Q4·1:21
Dream Full timeout
ATL 89·IND 87
- Q4·1:21
Aliyah Boston makes 1-foot layup (Caitlin Clark assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 89·IND 87
+9pp
- Q4·1:31
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
·
ATL 89·IND 85
+2pp
- Q4·1:35
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 89·IND 85
+6pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
IND
Home
29-68
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-68
43
FG %
49
8-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-17
25-32
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-26
19
Assists
18
11
Turnovers
14
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
IND
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶45.4%
31.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶32.1%
83.5
PPG
86.0
▶92.9
19.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.3
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.4