Jun 6, 25sim 96
12968977
11(H)86
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+15LV
LA
2-5
8196
LV
3-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces held off Los Angeles Sparks, 96–81.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Odyssey Sims
G · #0
11.6Game score
15
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
40.2Game score
35
Pts
13
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Los Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas Aces · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LA2-5
8196
LV3-2
LA2-5LV3-2
LA
2-5
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -16 | |
| 29 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -20 | |
| 36 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| 34 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -21 | |
| 18 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -18 | |
| 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +8 | |
| Team | 81 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 18 | ||
| DNP: S. Feagin | ||||||||
LV
3-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +23 | |
| 36 | 35 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +23 | |
| 32 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +21 | |
| 33 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +30 | |
| 36 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +20 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -14 | |
| 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
| 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -22 | |
| Team | 96 | 30 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 10 | ||
| DNP: C. Bradford, K. Bell | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
46
18
Ast
22
Season series
LV wins series 3-1
May 31LA81@LV96today
LA81@LV96todayJun 12LA97@LV89
LA97@LV89Jul 30LV89@LA74
LV89@LA74Sep 12LV103@LA75
LV103@LA75Headlines · top performers
Game flowLA ↔ LV
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 8:05
LAO. Sims
GGame leader · 36 min
15 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 36 min30+ point game
35 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
LV beat LA 96-81. A. Wilson led the way with 35 points and 13 rebounds. LV outscored the other side 29-21 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs LA
Starters vs bench
production by unitLAstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 30 REB · 12 AST
GS 32
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
LVstarters 90% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST
GS 82
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 2 REB · 4 AST
GS 4
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 21 | 21 | 17 | 22 | 81 |
| LV | 28 | 29 | 23 | 16 | 96 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · LV won 3
21
28
Q1
Sims 6
Young 10
21
29
Q2
King 5
Gray 8
17
23
Q3
Sims 6
Stokes 8
22
16
Q4
Plum 9
Wilson 10
LA
LV
Shooting comparison
LA
LV
47%
31-66
FG
46%
32-70
29%
7-24
3PT
48%
12-25
63%
12-19
FT
87%
20-23
Play-by-play · 390 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 81·LV 96
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 81·LV 96
- Q4·22.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 81·LV 96
- Q4·22.1
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 80·LV 96
- Q4·22.1
Jackie Young personal foul
LA 79·LV 96
- Q4·30.1
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup
LA 79·LV 96
- Q4·32.0
Dearica Hamby lost ball turnover (Kiah Stokes steals)
·
LA 79·LV 94
- Q4·35.2
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
LA 79·LV 94
- Q4·36.1
Jackie Young misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 79·LV 94
- Q4·55.1
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
LA 79·LV 94
- Q4·58.1
Julie Allemand misses 24-foot three point jumper
LA 79·LV 94
- Q4·1:12
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 1
LA 79·LV 94
- Q4·1:12
Azura Stevens shooting foul
LA 79·LV 93
- Q4·1:12
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup
LA 79·LV 93
- Q4·1:29
Julie Allemand makes 26-foot three pointer (Dearica Hamby assists)
·
LA 79·LV 91
- Q4·1:42
Chelsea Gray out of bounds bad pass turnover
LA 76·LV 91
- Q4·2:01
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
LA 76·LV 91
- Q4·2:02
Azura Stevens misses 23-foot three point jumper
LA 76·LV 91
- Q4·2:05
Julie Allemand offensive rebound
LA 76·LV 91
- Q4·2:09
Kelsey Plum misses driving layup
LA 76·LV 91
- Q4·2:33
A'ja Wilson makes free throw 1 of 1
LA 76·LV 91
- Q4·2:33
Official timeout
LA 76·LV 90
- Q4·2:33
Odyssey Sims shooting foul
LA 76·LV 90
- Q4·2:33
A'ja Wilson makes layup
LA 76·LV 90
- Q4·2:35
A'ja Wilson offensive rebound
LA 76·LV 88
- Q4·2:37
Jackie Young misses 23-foot three point shot
LA 76·LV 88
- Q4·2:45
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
LA 76·LV 88
- Q4·2:47
Chelsea Gray blocks Kelsey Plum 's 4-foot driving layup
·
LA 76·LV 88
- Q4·3:00
Azura Stevens defensive rebound
LA 76·LV 88
- Q4·3:01
Jackie Young misses two point shot
LA 76·LV 88
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
LV
Home
31-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-70
47
FG %
46
7-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-25
12-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-23
18
Assists
22
18
Turnovers
10
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.5± 10.4low
- A'ja WilsonLV23.5± 12.0low
- Chennedy CarterLV17.4± 9.2low
Rebounds
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.2± 4.5low
- Dearica HambyLA6.9± 5.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA6.9± 3.6low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.4low
- Kelsey PlumLA5.5± 3.9low
- Jackie YoungLV5.2± 3.1low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.9± 1.5low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.6± 1.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.7low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.9low
- Erica WheelerLA1.2± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
LV
50.7%
FG%
◀
44.7
49.7%
34.3%
3PT %
32.6
▶34.9%
91.6
PPG
85.4
91.0
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
16.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.6