May 25, 25sim 98
1855
20(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+8ATL
DAL
0-4
7583
ATL
2-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Dallas Wings, 83–75.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DAL · top performer
Maddy Siegrist
F · #20
9.9Game score
12
Pts
9
Reb
0
Ast
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
25.9Game score
27
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
WNBA · Dallas Wings at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
DAL0-4
7583
ATL2-2
DAL0-4ATL2-2
DAL
0-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 13 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | |
| 19 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 33 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 20 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 28 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -21 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.786 | ||||||||
| 22 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 24 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +10 | |
| Team | 75 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 8 | ||
| DNP: L. Geiselsoder, A. James, J. Quinerly | ||||||||
ATL
2-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | |
| 30 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 37 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +8 | |
| 38 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +7 | |
| 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | |
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +7 | |
| 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 23 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| Team | 83 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 13 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
43
17
Ast
23
Season series
ATL wins series 3-1
May 24DAL75@ATL83today
DAL75@ATL83todayJun 25ATL55@DAL68
ATL55@DAL68Jul 31ATL88@DAL85
ATL88@DAL85Aug 29DAL78@ATL100
DAL78@ATL100Headlines · top performers
Game flowDAL ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 59.0
DALM. Siegrist
FGame leader · 22 min
12 PTS · 9 REB · 0 AST
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 37 min
27 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
How it ended
ATL beat DAL 83-75. A. Gray paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 31-20 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs DAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitDALstarters 48% of ptsStarters(5)
36 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST
GS 19
Bench(4)
39 PTS · 18 REB · 4 AST
GS 33
ATLstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
62 PTS · 36 REB · 20 AST
GS 55
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL2nd Quarter · 8:51 · 20-20
+8pp→ 61% WP
Allisha Gray · makes 23-foot three point shot (Maya Caldwell assists)
DAL2nd Quarter · 6:53 · 23-22
+7pp→ 41% WP
Paige Bueckers · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL2nd Quarter · 59.0 · 30-35
+9pp→ 75% WP
Maya Caldwell · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Allisha Gray assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 12 | 20 | 25 | 75 |
| ATL | 17 | 20 | 31 | 15 | 83 |
Period scoring
DAL won 2 · ATL won 2
18
17
Q1
Smith 7
Howard 5
12
20
Q2
Bueckers 4
Gray 7
20
31
Q3
Ogunbowale 5
Gray 9
25
15
Q4
Harris 8
Gray 7
DAL
ATL
Shooting comparison
DAL
ATL
37%
30-82
FG
43%
29-68
22%
5-23
3PT
38%
9-24
71%
10-14
FT
76%
16-21
Play-by-play · 406 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 75·ATL 83
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 75·ATL 83
- Q4·24.1
Kaila Charles makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
·
DAL 75·ATL 83
- Q4·35.1
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 72·ATL 83
- Q4·35.1
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 72·ATL 82
- Q4·35.1
Kaila Charles shooting foul
DAL 72·ATL 81
- Q4·37.0
Kaila Charles lost ball turnover (Rhyne Howard steals)
·
DAL 72·ATL 81
- Q4·42.1
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
DAL 72·ATL 81
- Q4·43.0
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 72·ATL 81
- Q4·58.2
Teaira McCowan lost ball turnover (Brittney Griner steals)
·
DAL 72·ATL 81
- Q4·59.1
Kaila Charles vs. Brittney Griner (Nia Coffey gains possession)
· ·
DAL 72·ATL 81
+0.5pp
- Q4·1:06
Wings timeout
DAL 72·ATL 81
- Q4·1:06
Paige Bueckers defensive rebound
DAL 72·ATL 81
- Q4·1:07
Rhyne Howard misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 72·ATL 81
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:07
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 72·ATL 81
- Q4·1:07
Tyasha Harris shooting foul
DAL 72·ATL 80
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:25
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
DAL 72·ATL 80
- Q4·1:26
Paige Bueckers misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 72·ATL 80
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:36
Teaira McCowan defensive rebound
DAL 72·ATL 80
- Q4·1:37
Allisha Gray misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 72·ATL 80
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:42
Nia Coffey offensive rebound
DAL 72·ATL 80
+0.8pp
- Q4·1:44
Allisha Gray misses 24-foot three point jumper
DAL 72·ATL 80
- Q4·2:11
Kaila Charles makes driving layup (Tyasha Harris assists)
·
DAL 72·ATL 80
−0.7pp
- Q4·2:30
Allisha Gray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)
·
DAL 70·ATL 80
+3pp
- Q4·2:43
Tyasha Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)
·
DAL 70·ATL 77
−2pp
- Q4·2:54
Nia Coffey makes 1-foot layup (Allisha Gray assists)
·
DAL 67·ATL 77
+1pp
- Q4·3:09
Tyasha Harris makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 67·ATL 75
+1pp
- Q4·3:09
Teaira McCowan enters the game for NaLyssa Smith
·
DAL 66·ATL 75
- Q4·3:09
Paige Bueckers enters the game for Maddy Siegrist
·
DAL 66·ATL 75
- Q4·3:09
Brittney Griner enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
DAL 66·ATL 75
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
30-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-68
37
FG %
43
5-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-24
10-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-21
17
Assists
23
8
Turnovers
13
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 14 players in cohort
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.6± 8.3low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Rhyne HowardATL13.8± 9.6low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.7± 6.4low
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Madina OkotATL5.0± 5.3low
Assists
- Jessica ShepardDAL6.0± 4.9low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Paige BueckersDAL5.3± 3.3low
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL0.9± 1.1low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Azzi FuddDAL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
ATL
46.6%
FG%
◀
44.7
43.6%
37.3%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
88.9
PPG
◀
85.4
83.9
23.4
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.9
10.3
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.9