Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2VGK

COL

55-16-11

VGK

39-26-17

NHLSun, May 24FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -148

COL · top performer

Gabriel Landeskog

LW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Tomas Hertl

C · #48

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	-1	1	4	0	12	8:29
J. DruryC · #18	1	0	-1	1	1	0	0	11:04
N. KadriC · #91	1	0	1	3	1	0	2	19:19
P. KellyC · #17	0	1	-1	0	1	0	0	12:52
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	24:04
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:15
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	1	-1	5	2	1	0	18:02
M. NecasC · #88	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	21:18
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	19:02
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	8:34
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	12:02
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	11:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	16:38
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	15:04
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	0	3	0	6	0	27:14
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	12:57
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	16:20
D. ToewsD · #7	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	23:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	22	4	18	.818	58:15

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	0	5	1	0	15:57
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:09
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:20
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	23:02
T. HertlC · #48	1	1	0	3	2	0	0	13:23
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	2	2	4	0	0	17:03
W. KarlssonC · #71	1	1	3	2	0	1	0	17:22
K. KolesarRW · #55	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	5:19
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	2	0	2	1	0	2	23:59
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:27
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	6:08
M. StoneRW · #61	1	1	-1	3	4	0	2	15:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-1	0	1	4	2	21:06
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	1	2	3	1	2	0	11:04
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	2	3	5	0	23:17
K. KorczakD · #6	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	9:38
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	1	0	2	3	0	23:45
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	23:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	35	3	32	.914	59:44

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 3-0

May 21

VGK4@

COL2

May 23

VGK3@

COL1

May 25

COL3@

VGK5today

May 27

COL1@

VGK2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-14860%

VGK+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 5-3. T. Hertl led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	3	0	0	3
VGK	0	3	2	5

Period scoring

COL won 1 · VGK won 2

COL

VGK

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:58
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:55
Brock Nelson hit Brayden McNabb
·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:54
Giveaway by Brayden McNabb
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:25
Gabriel Landeskog Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:23
Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Shea Theodore
·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:20
William Karlsson faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:20
Ross Colton Misconduct
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:20
Goalie Stopped
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:18
Artturi Lehkonen hit Noah Hanifin
·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:18
Brent Burns Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:01
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·19:01
Brett Howden Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (4), Shea Theodore (6)
· ·
COL 3·VGK 5
3rd·18:52
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Shea Theodore
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·18:41
Takeaway by Shea Theodore
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·18:32
Ivan Barbashev Backhand Wide Right
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·18:24
Brock Nelson shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·18:16
Martin Necas shot blocked by Ivan Barbashev
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·17:47
Giveaway by Josh Manson
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:47
Giveaway by Mark Stone
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:41
Brent Burns Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:37
Cale Makar shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:32
Logan O'Connor shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:16
Mark Stone hit Cale Makar
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:06
Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:04
Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:31
Brock Nelson faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
COL 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:31
High Stick
COL 3·VGK 4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -148/VGK +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Colorado Avalanche, 5–3.

VGK +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Gabriel Landeskog · COL24:121.0864.8%62.4%24:12 TOI · 1.08 iXG · 64.8% CF · 62.4% xGF
Tomas Hertl · VGK13:300.5144.0%58.9%13:30 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 44.0% CF · 58.9% xGF
Mark Stone · VGK15:540.4137.9%49.5%15:54 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 37.9% CF · 49.5% xGF
Nazem Kadri · COL19:300.3776.9%73.5%19:30 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 76.9% CF · 73.5% xGF
Nathan MacKinnon · COL18:120.3472.5%71.1%18:12 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 72.5% CF · 71.1% xGF
Cale Makar · COL27:300.3269.2%68.8%27:30 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 69.2% CF · 68.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK32–3.914+0.4332–3 · .914 SV% · +0.43 GSAx
Scott Wedgewood · COL18–4.818-1.4818–4 · .818 SV% · -1.48 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
52.6%
P(VGK win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.6%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.6%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.9pp

best edge · VGK · DraftKings

COL

no live price

VGK

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +10.9pp · implied 41.7%

Book	COL	VGK	Best edge
DraftKings	-155	+130★	+10.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.