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FINAL+2VGK
COL

COL

55-16-11

35
VGK

VGK

39-26-17

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, May 24FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -148

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Colorado Avalanche, 5–3.

VGK +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Jack Drury

Jack Drury

C · #18

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Tomas Hertl

Tomas Hertl

C · #48

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
COL55-16-11VGK39-26-17
COL

COL

55-16-11

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

39-26-17

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

18

PIM

10

Playoff series

VGK leads series 3-0

May 21VGKVGK4@COLCOL2
May 23VGKVGK3@COLCOL1
May 25COLCOL3@VGKVGK5today
May 27COLCOL1@VGKVGK2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-14860%
VGKVGK+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL3003
VGK0325

Period scoring

COL won 1 · VGK won 2

3
0

1

0
3

2

0
2

3

COL
VGK

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 3·VGK 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 3·VGK 5

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  4. 3rd·19:55

    Brock Nelson hit Brayden McNabb

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  5. 3rd·19:54

    Giveaway by Brayden McNabb

    COL 3·VGK 5

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Gabriel Landeskog Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  7. 3rd·19:23

    Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Shea Theodore

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  8. 3rd·19:20

    William Karlsson faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  9. 3rd·19:20

    Ross Colton Misconduct

    COL 3·VGK 5

  10. 3rd·19:20

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 3·VGK 5

  11. 3rd·19:18

    Artturi Lehkonen hit Noah Hanifin

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  12. 3rd·19:18

    Brent Burns Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  13. 3rd·19:01

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Nicolas Roy

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  14. 3rd·19:01

    Brett Howden Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (4), Shea Theodore (6)

    · ·

    COL 3·VGK 5

  15. 3rd·18:52

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  16. 3rd·18:42

    Giveaway by Shea Theodore

    COL 3·VGK 4

  17. 3rd·18:41

    Takeaway by Shea Theodore

    COL 3·VGK 4

  18. 3rd·18:32

    Ivan Barbashev Backhand Wide Right

    COL 3·VGK 4

  19. 3rd·18:24

    Brock Nelson shot blocked by Noah Hanifin

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  20. 3rd·18:16

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Ivan Barbashev

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  21. 3rd·17:47

    Giveaway by Josh Manson

    COL 3·VGK 4

  22. 3rd·16:47

    Giveaway by Mark Stone

    COL 3·VGK 4

  23. 3rd·16:41

    Brent Burns Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  24. 3rd·16:37

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Noah Hanifin

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  25. 3rd·16:32

    Logan O'Connor shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  26. 3rd·16:16

    Mark Stone hit Cale Makar

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  27. 3rd·16:06

    Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  28. 3rd·16:04

    Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Noah Hanifin

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  29. 3rd·14:31

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against William Karlsson

    ·

    COL 3·VGK 4

  30. 3rd·14:31

    High Stick

    COL 3·VGK 4

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

35

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

33.3

18

PIM

10

25

Faceoffs W

31

11

Blocks

22

19

Giveaways

18

3

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -148/VGK +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR