Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at OTT?

The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

CAR

53-22-7

OTT

44-27-11

NHLThu, Apr 23FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasOTT -122

CAR · top performer

Logan Stankoven

C · #22

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	19:58
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	16:01
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	7:47
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	17:06
T. HallLW · #71	0	2	2	3	2	1	2	14:54
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:38
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	20:06
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	14:37
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	7:33
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	17:23
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	2	4	2	0	0	15:10
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	17:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	19:58
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:43
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	20:11
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	14:57
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-1	2	1	3	0	22:33
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	1	3	6	3	0	18:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	22	1	21	.955	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	1	5	2	2	15:29
D. BathersonRW · #19	1	0	-1	1	4	0	2	19:40
N. CousinsC · #21	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	7:32
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	4	5	1	0	16:16
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:32
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:40
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:44
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	15:04
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	18:08
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	23:57
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	-1	2	2	1	2	19:27
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	8:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	29:41
C. CrottyD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	8:59
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	18:13
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	19:21
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	13:19
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	20:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	27	2	25	.926	58:01

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 3-0

Apr 18

OTT0@

CAR2

Apr 20

OTT2@

CAR3

Apr 23

CAR2@

OTT1today

Apr 25

CAR4@

OTT2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR+10250%

OTT-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 63 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat OTT 2-1. L. Stankoven led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	1	0	2
OTT	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · OTT won 0

CAR

OTT

Play-by-play · 357 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·19:58
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·19:58
Icing
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·19:57
Jalen Chatfield Wrist Shot Wide Left
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·19:49
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·19:25
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·19:25
Off-side
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·19:15
Giveaway by Sebastian Aho
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·19:02
Giveaway by Seth Jarvis
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:49
Jaccob Slavin Wrist Shot Wide Right
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:43
Jaccob Slavin shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:40
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:34
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:29
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:29
Icing
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:25
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot Wide Right
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:22
Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:14
Tyler Kleven hit Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·18:11
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Tyler Kleven
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·17:01
Jordan Spence hit Nikolaj Ehlers
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:51
Claude Giroux shot blocked by Sean Walker
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:43
Jordan Staal hit Tyler Kleven
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:31
William Carrier hit Warren Foegele
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:24
Mark Jankowski Backhand Hit Right Post
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:22
William Carrier Tip-In saved by Linus Ullmark
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·16:08
Michael Amadio hit Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·15:46
Takeaway by Jordan Spence
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·15:35
Logan Stankoven hit Tyler Kleven
·
CAR 2·OTT 1
3rd·15:07
Ridly Greig Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 2·OTT 1

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR +102/OTT -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 2–1.

CAR +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.8%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
49.8%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.8%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.8%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at OTT?: The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesOttawa Senators

Elsewhere in the NHL