Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at EDM?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3EDM

ANA

43-33-6

EDM

41-30-11

NHLTue, Apr 28FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-1VegasEDM -155

ANA · top performer

Alex Killorn

LW · #17

1Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	17:14
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	1	0	2	6	0	0	16:39
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	16:35
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	-2	3	3	0	0	15:24
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	13:46
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	0	0	2	2	0	11:20
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:46
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-3	0	2	1	0	16:10
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:27
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	3	5	0	2	12:21
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	12:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	25:34
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	8:49
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	13:49
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-2	2	1	2	0	28:04
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:23
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	10:20
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-2	1	5	1	2	25:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	9	3	6	.667	10:13
V. HussoG · #33	11	1	10	.909	47:14

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DachC · #34	0	0	0	0	6	0	2	9:11
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:20
L. DraisaitlC · #29	2	0	1	4	0	1	2	23:22
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	0	2	1	2	1	4	18:07
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	17:29
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	10:35
C. McDavidC · #97	0	2	1	4	0	1	0	24:09
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	2	2	1	3	0	0	18:57
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	1	0	2	1	7	0	0	12:34
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	12:18
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:15
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	3	2	0	1	1	0	27:30
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	2	1	1	3	0	17:12
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	10:19
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	1	1	4	4	0	20:33
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	23:19
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	30	1	29	.967	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

ANA leads series 3-2

Apr 21

ANA3@

EDM4

Apr 23

ANA6@

EDM4

Apr 25

EDM4@

ANA6

Apr 27

EDM3@

ANA4

Apr 29

ANA1@

EDM4today

May 1

EDM2@

ANA5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+13043%

EDM-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 81 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat ANA 4-1. L. Draisaitl led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	1	0	1
EDM	3	1	0	4

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · EDM won 1

ANA

EDM

Play-by-play · 356 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·19:53
Tyson Hinds Slap Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·19:40
Tyson Hinds hit Jack Roslovic
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·19:23
Giveaway by Jacob Trouba
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·17:18
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·17:18
Too many men/ice served by Mason McTavish
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·16:51
Mason McTavish hit Darnell Nurse
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·16:38
Cutter Gauthier Slap Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·15:30
Jackson LaCombe shot blocked by Evan Bouchard
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·15:03
Evan Bouchard hit Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·14:46
Jeffrey Viel shot blocked by Curtis Lazar
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·14:26
Tim Washe faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·14:26
Goalie Stopped
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·14:24
Leon Draisaitl Slap Shot saved by Ville Husso
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·13:58
Giveaway by Vasily Podkolzin
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·13:40
Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·13:22
Alex Killorn hit Darnell Nurse
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·13:15
Mikael Granlund shot blocked by Connor Murphy
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·13:14
Curtis Lazar hit Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·13:04
Giveaway by Jackson LaCombe
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·12:57
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Curtis Lazar
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·12:57
Puck Frozen - Goalie
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·12:35
Jack Roslovic hit Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·12:11
Tim Washe shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·11:59
Jacob Trouba hit Matt Savoie
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·11:56
Mattias Ekholm hit Tim Washe
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·11:21
Jackson LaCombe shot blocked by Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·11:03
Chris Kreider Batted Wide Right
·
ANA 1·EDM 4
3rd·11:02
Jackson LaCombe Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
ANA 1·EDM 4

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 7.5·ANA +130/EDM -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Anaheim Ducks, 4–1.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 29 skaters with EDGE

John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Connor McDavidEDM · C
iXG43.699+
Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
SHOT MPH96.199+
Jake WalmanEDM · D
SHOT MPH99.599
Zach HymanEDM · LW
iXG35.299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
55.6%
P(EDM win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.6%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.6%
P(EDM win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at EDM?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.