Feb 5, 26sim 98
1242924
8(H)2
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3PIT
PIT
24-14-11
41
CGY
21-24-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ittsburgh Penguins went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 4–1.
PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PIT · top performer
Evgeni Malkin
C · #71
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
CGY · top performer
Yegor Sharangovich
C · #17
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
PIT24-14-11
41
CGY21-24-5
PIT24-14-11CGY21-24-5
PIT
24-14-11
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
CGY
21-24-5
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
PIM
2
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Jan 10CGY2@PIT1
CGY2@PIT1Jan 22PIT4@CGY1today
PIT4@CGY1todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PIT -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
PIT-12556%CGY+10549%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
PIT beat CGY 4-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Period scoring
PIT won 2 · CGY won 0
1
0
1
1
1
2
2
0
3
PIT
CGY
Play-by-play · 304 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·19:35
Justin Brazeau Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·18:54
Giveaway by Martin Pospisil
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·18:11
Ryan Shea Backhand Wide Right
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·18:07
Connor Dewar Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:59
Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:59
Puck in Netting
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:57
Matt Coronato shot blocked by Ryan Shea
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:48
Sidney Crosby Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:48
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:48
Goalie Stopped
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:47
Ryan Shea Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:41
Nazem Kadri hit Blake Lizotte
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:31
Connor Dewar Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Kevin Bahl
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·16:41
Giveaway by Anthony Mantha
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·16:34
Giveaway by Zach Whitecloud
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·16:16
Ryan Lomberg hit Parker Wotherspoon
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·15:43
Egor Chinakhov Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·15:28
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·15:28
Icing
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·14:55
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·14:55
Puck in Netting
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·14:04
Adam Klapka hit Parker Wotherspoon
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·13:33
Matvei Gridin Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·13:01
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·13:01
High Stick
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·12:54
Giveaway by Egor Chinakhov
PIT 4·CGY 1
- 3rd·12:39
Joel Hanley Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PIT 4·CGY 1
Team stats
PIT
Away
Stat
CGY
Home
25
Shots
19
0.0
PCT
0.0
2
PIM
2
24
Faceoffs W
31
17
Blocks
11
16
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
3
Betting line
PIT -1.5·O/U 5.5·PIT -125/CGY +105
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
Egor ChinakhovPIT · RWSHOT MPH94.799
Yan KuznetsovCGY · DSHOT MPH100.297
Mikael BacklundCGY · CSHOT MPH93.594
Adam KlapkaCGY · RWSHOT MPH92.691
Sidney CrosbyPIT · CSHOT MPH88.787
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.6%
ensemble · CGY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+105
Close price
+105
Open no-vig
46.8%
Close no-vig
46.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
CGY vs PIT.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 117 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Rickard RakellPIT3.0± 2.1high
- Blake ColemanCGY2.7± 1.6high
- Sidney CrosbyPIT2.7± 1.7high
Goals
- Evgeni MalkinPIT0.5± 1.0high
- Blake ColemanCGY0.4± 0.7high
- Morgan FrostCGY0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Evgeni MalkinPIT1.1± 1.4high
- Sidney CrosbyPIT1.1± 1.1high
- Matt CoronatoCGY0.8± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands