Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at COL?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4PHI

PHI

24-17-9

COL

34-6-9

NHLFri, Jan 23FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -325

PHI · top performer

Owen Tippett

RW · #74

4Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	13:51
B. BrinkRW · #10	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:13
N. CatesLW · #27	0	1	3	0	1	1	2	15:00
S. CouturierC · #14	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	17:37
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	20:48
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:30
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	8:10
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	19:53
M. MichkovRW · #39	2	1	3	5	1	0	0	14:31
L. PedersonC · #25	0	0	1	0	4	1	0	8:43
O. TippettRW · #74	3	1	1	4	0	2	0	16:04
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	13:20
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	3	0	0	4	0	22:30
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	15:50
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	22:05
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	1	0	2	3	0	22:16
C. YorkD · #8	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	21:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	35	3	32	.914	59:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	5:54
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	11:00
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	14:38
P. KellyC · #17	1	0	-1	2	0	1	0	14:06
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:36
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	-2	0	1	0	2	15:17
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	2	-1	1	1	0	2	26:15
T. MakarLW · #16	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	7:16
M. NecasC · #88	0	2	0	9	3	0	0	25:16
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	22:38
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	16:29
V. OlofssonLW · #95	1	0	0	3	0	1	0	20:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AhcanD · #15	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	12:34
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	17:54
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:36
C. MakarD · #8	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	26:21
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	17:47
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	17:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	19	6	13	.684	57:38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 7

COL3@

PHI2

Jan 24

PHI7@

COL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+26028%

COL-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat COL 7-3. O. Tippett led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	2	1	4	7
COL	0	3	0	3

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · COL won 1

PHI

COL

Play-by-play · 290 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·19:36
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Garnet Hathaway
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·19:17
Taylor Makar Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
· ·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·19:08
Garnet Hathaway hit Josh Manson
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·18:58
Lane Pederson faceoff won against Zakhar Bardakov
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·18:58
Off-side
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·18:43
Giveaway by Lane Pederson
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·18:30
Noah Juulsen shot blocked by Parker Kelly
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·17:51
Jack Drury faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·17:51
Icing
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·17:29
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·17:29
Goalie Stopped
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·17:27
Joel Kiviranta Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·16:53
Noah Cates faceoff won against Zakhar Bardakov
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·16:53
Matvei Michkov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (28)
·
PHI 7·COL 3
3rd·16:48
Giveaway by Jack Drury
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·16:27
Travis Konecny shot blocked by Victor Olofsson
·
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·16:22
Nick Seeler shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·15:58
Cale Makar Snap Shot High and Wide Left
· ·
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·15:55
Giveaway by Nick Seeler
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·15:50
Martin Necas Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·15:40
Christian Dvorak shot blocked by Valeri Nichushkin
·
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·15:31
Giveaway by Valeri Nichushkin
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·15:17
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·15:17
High Stick
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·14:42
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·14:42
Goalie Stopped
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·14:40
Parker Kelly Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 6·COL 3
3rd·14:25
Giveaway by Jack Ahcan
PHI 6·COL 3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI +260/COL -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 7–3.

PHI +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
68.9%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
68.9%
P(COL win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
68.9%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+260

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at COL?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.