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FINAL+2NSH
OTT

OTT

23-20-7

35
NSH

NSH

24-22-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 22FinalSeriesNSH wins series 2-0VegasOTT -118

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off Ottawa Senators, 5–3.

NSH +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Michael Amadio

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Ryan O'Reilly

Ryan O'Reilly

C · #90

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
OTT23-20-7NSH24-22-4
OTT

OTT

23-20-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

24-22-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

8

Season series

NSH wins series 2-0

Oct 13NSHNSH4@OTTOTT1
Jan 23OTTOTT3@NSHNSH5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT-11854%
NSHNSH-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat OTT 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT2103
NSH0145

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · NSH won 1

2
0

1

1
1

2

0
4

3

OTT
NSH

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 3·NSH 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 3·NSH 5

  3. 3rd·19:33

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Stephen Halliday

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 5

  4. 3rd·19:33

    Cole Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (17), Ryan O'Reilly (32)

    · ·

    OTT 3·NSH 5

  5. 3rd·19:00

    Ryan O'Reilly Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 4

  6. 3rd·18:47

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Dylan Cozens

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 4

  7. 3rd·18:47

    Steven Stamkos Goal (24) Batted, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (31), Nick Blankenburg (15)

    · ·

    OTT 3·NSH 4

  8. 3rd·18:43

    Ryan O'Reilly hit Nick Jensen

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  9. 3rd·18:32

    Giveaway by Ryan O'Reilly

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  10. 3rd·17:56

    Takeaway by Michael Amadio

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  11. 3rd·17:55

    Giveaway by Artem Zub

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  12. 3rd·17:42

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  13. 3rd·17:42

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  14. 3rd·17:40

    Michael Bunting Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  15. 3rd·17:34

    Giveaway by Nick Perbix

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  16. 3rd·17:28

    Nick Cousins hit Nick Blankenburg

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  17. 3rd·17:02

    Roman Josi shot blocked by Nick Jensen

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  18. 3rd·16:53

    Cole Smith hit Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  19. 3rd·16:48

    Roman Josi shot blocked by Dylan Cozens

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  20. 3rd·16:21

    Giveaway by Filip Forsberg

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  21. 3rd·16:19

    Takeaway by Filip Forsberg

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  22. 3rd·15:43

    Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Nick Jensen

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  23. 3rd·15:26

    Michael Bunting shot blocked by Thomas Chabot

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  24. 3rd·15:25

    Nick Perbix shot blocked by Luke Evangelista

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  25. 3rd·14:45

    Cole Smith hit Drake Batherson

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  26. 3rd·14:15

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  27. 3rd·14:15

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  28. 3rd·14:12

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  29. 3rd·13:22

    Tyler Kleven hit Michael McCarron

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

  30. 3rd·13:15

    Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Michael McCarron

    ·

    OTT 3·NSH 3

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

26

Shots

27

0.0

PCT

40.0

12

PIM

8

38

Faceoffs W

15

11

Blocks

9

13

Giveaways

18

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -118/NSH -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Nick BlankenburgCOL · D
    SKATE MPH22.591
  • Cole SmithVGK · RW
    BURSTS3191

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR