Jan 19, 26sim 99
166
124292(H)3
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1NJ
NJ
25-22-2
21
CGY
21-23-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ew Jersey Devils went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.
CGY +1.5 cashed (NJ won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NJ · top performer
Jesper Bratt
LW · #63
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
CGY · top performer
Matvei Gridin
RW · #92
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · New Jersey Devils at Calgary Flames · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final / OT
NJ25-22-2
21
CGY21-23-5
NJ25-22-2CGY21-23-5
NJ
25-22-2
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
CGY
21-23-5
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
PIM
4
Season series
NJ leads series 1-0
Jan 20NJ2@CGY1today
NJ2@CGY1todayMar 12CGY5@NJ4
CGY5@NJ4Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NJ -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
NJ-12556%CGY+10549%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
NJ beat CGY 2-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Period scoring
NJ won 1 · CGY won 0
0
0
1
1
1
2
0
0
3
1
0
OT
NJ
CGY
Play-by-play · 271 plays
period
event
player
- OT·1:18
Game End
NJ 2·CGY 1
- OT·1:18
End of OT
NJ 2·CGY 1
- OT·1:18
Simon Nemec Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (20), Jesper Bratt (26)
· ·
NJ 2·CGY 1
- OT·0:50
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
· ·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- OT·0:00
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·19:44
Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·19:39
Cody Glass faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·19:39
Goalie Stopped
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·19:37
Brett Pesce Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·19:26
Jonas Siegenthaler hit Joel Farabee
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:56
Mikael Backlund Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·17:29
Brett Pesce hit Joel Hanley
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·16:40
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·16:25
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·16:08
Dougie Hamilton hit Adam Klapka
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·16:07
Ryan Lomberg hit Brenden Dillon
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·15:47
Brett Pesce hit Adam Klapka
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·15:26
Yegor Sharangovich hit Jesper Bratt
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·14:29
Connor Zary Tip-In Wide Right
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·14:24
Giveaway by Brenden Dillon
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·14:07
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·14:07
Goalie Stopped
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·14:05
Jonathan Huberdeau Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·13:58
Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·13:50
MacKenzie Weegar hit Connor Brown
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·13:30
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Paul Cotter
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·13:30
Goalie Stopped
NJ 1·CGY 1
- 3rd·13:26
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
NJ 1·CGY 1
Team stats
NJ
Away
Stat
CGY
Home
32
Shots
22
0.0
PCT
0.0
8
PIM
4
29
Faceoffs W
16
11
Blocks
14
15
Giveaways
18
4
Takeaways
3
Betting line
NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·NJ -125/CGY +105
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 12 skaters with EDGE
Yan KuznetsovCGY · DSHOT MPH100.297
Mikael BacklundCGY · CSHOT MPH93.594
Joel FarabeeCGY · LWDIST MI215.486
Matt CoronatoCGY · RWDIST MI214.185
Morgan FrostCGY · CBURSTS14285
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.6%
ensemble · CGY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+105
Close price
+105
Open no-vig
46.8%
Close no-vig
46.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
CGY vs NJ.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 120 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Jack HughesNJ4.3± 1.7high
- Timo MeierNJ3.3± 3.0high
- Blake ColemanCGY2.7± 1.6high
Goals
- Jack HughesNJ0.6± 0.8high
- Blake ColemanCGY0.4± 0.7high
- Morgan FrostCGY0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Jack HughesNJ1.6± 1.7high
- Jesper BrattNJ1.0± 1.7high
- Nico HischierNJ0.9± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands