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FINAL+2WPG
STL

STL

19-23-8

13
WPG

WPG

20-23-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 20FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWPG -125

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off St. Louis Blues, 3–1.

WPG -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Dalibor Dvorsky

Dalibor Dvorsky

RW · #54

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Mark Scheifele

Mark Scheifele

C · #55

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
3
STL19-23-8WPG20-23-6
STL

STL

19-23-8

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

20-23-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 18WPGWPG0@STLSTL1
Jan 21STLSTL1@WPGWPG3today
Mar 15STLSTL2@WPGWPG3
Apr 10WPGWPG3@STLSTL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+10549%
WPGWPG-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat STL 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
STL0101
WPG2013

Period scoring

STL won 1 · WPG won 2

0
2

1

1
0

2

0
1

3

STL
WPG

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    STL 1·WPG 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    STL 1·WPG 3

  3. 3rd·19:16

    Jimmy Snuggerud Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 3

  4. 3rd·19:11

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 3

  5. 3rd·19:11

    Icing

    STL 1·WPG 3

  6. 3rd·18:47

    Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    · ·

    STL 1·WPG 3

  7. 3rd·18:47

    Icing

    STL 1·WPG 3

  8. 3rd·18:19

    Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Cole Perfetti

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 3

  9. 3rd·18:14

    Colton Parayko Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 3

  10. 3rd·18:12

    Giveaway by Dylan Samberg

    STL 1·WPG 3

  11. 3rd·17:37

    Pavel Buchnevich faceoff won against Jonathan Toews

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 3

  12. 3rd·17:37

    Mark Scheifele Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (35), Josh Morrissey (32)

    · ·

    STL 1·WPG 3

  13. 3rd·16:52

    Robby Fabbri hit Logan Stanley

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  14. 3rd·16:46

    Dylan Samberg hit Robby Fabbri

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  15. 3rd·16:41

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  16. 3rd·16:41

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    STL 1·WPG 2

  17. 3rd·16:19

    Giveaway by Jake Neighbours

    STL 1·WPG 2

  18. 3rd·16:04

    Giveaway by Pavel Buchnevich

    STL 1·WPG 2

  19. 3rd·15:19

    Colton Parayko shot blocked by Cole Perfetti

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  20. 3rd·15:12

    Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Logan Stanley

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  21. 3rd·15:11

    Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Jonathan Toews

    · ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  22. 3rd·15:11

    Puck in Netting

    STL 1·WPG 2

  23. 3rd·15:10

    Jake Neighbours shot blocked by Josh Morrissey

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  24. 3rd·14:40

    Dylan DeMelo Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  25. 3rd·14:38

    Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  26. 3rd·14:38

    Icing

    STL 1·WPG 2

  27. 3rd·14:34

    Tanner Pearson hit Otto Stenberg

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  28. 3rd·14:31

    Tanner Pearson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 1·WPG 2

  29. 3rd·14:05

    Giveaway by Alexey Toropchenko

    STL 1·WPG 2

  30. 3rd·13:53

    Giveaway by Nathan Walker

    STL 1·WPG 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

23

Shots

16

25.0

PCT

66.7

6

PIM

8

30

Faceoffs W

27

12

Blocks

23

17

Giveaways

12

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +105/WPG -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
    DIST MI282.397
  • Colton ParaykoSTL · D
    BURSTS9494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

WPG vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    3.7± 1.8high
  • Dylan HollowaySTL
    3.1± 1.3high
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL
    2.6± 2.1high

Goals

  • Robert ThomasSTL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Dylan HollowaySTL
    0.4± 0.8high

Points

  • Robert ThomasSTL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Mark ScheifeleWPG
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Dylan HollowaySTL
    1.2± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR