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FINAL+1DET
DAL

DAL

25-7-6

34
DET

DET

22-13-3

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLTue, Dec 23FinalSeriesDET leads series 1-0VegasDAL -125

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Dallas Stars, 4–3 in overtime.

DET +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Mikko Rantanen

Mikko Rantanen

RW · #96

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Lucas Raymond

Lucas Raymond

LW · #23

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
DAL25-7-6DET22-13-3
DAL

DAL

25-7-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

22-13-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

10

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Dec 23DALDAL3@DETDET4today
Mar 15DETDET2@DALDAL3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DALDAL-12556%
DETDET+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat DAL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
DAL02103
DET10214

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · DET won 3

0
1

1

2
0

2

1
2

3

0
1

OT

DAL
DET

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:34

    Game End

    DAL 3·DET 4

  2. OT·0:34

    End of OT

    DAL 3·DET 4

  3. OT·0:34

    Dylan Larkin Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (23), Lucas Raymond (30)

    · ·

    DAL 3·DET 4

  4. OT·0:06

    Lucas Raymond Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  5. OT·0:03

    Giveaway by Jason Robertson

    DAL 3·DET 3

  6. OT·0:00

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Roope Hintz

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  7. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    DAL 3·DET 3

  8. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DAL 3·DET 3

  9. 3rd·19:45

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  10. 3rd·19:45

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    DAL 3·DET 3

  11. 3rd·19:29

    Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by J.T. Compher

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  12. 3rd·19:27

    Jason Robertson Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  13. 3rd·16:56

    Moritz Seider Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  14. 3rd·16:15

    Jason Robertson shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  15. 3rd·16:12

    Giveaway by Andrew Copp

    DAL 3·DET 3

  16. 3rd·15:57

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Andrew Copp

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  17. 3rd·15:57

    Dylan Larkin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (2), Lucas Raymond (29)

    · ·

    DAL 3·DET 3

  18. 3rd·15:06

    Moritz Seider Slap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

  19. 3rd·14:50

    Giveaway by Matt Duchene

    DAL 3·DET 2

  20. 3rd·14:26

    Takeaway by Thomas Harley

    DAL 3·DET 2

  21. 3rd·14:12

    Ben Chiarot Slap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

  22. 3rd·14:09

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

  23. 3rd·14:09

    Mikko Rantanen Interference against Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

  24. 3rd·13:34

    Giveaway by Simon Edvinsson

    DAL 3·DET 2

  25. 3rd·13:30

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Roope Hintz

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

  26. 3rd·13:30

    Lucas Raymond Cross-checking against Ilya Lyubushkin

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

  27. 3rd·13:23

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

  28. 3rd·13:23

    Icing

    DAL 3·DET 2

  29. 3rd·13:20

    Mason Appleton hit Alexander Petrovic

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

  30. 3rd·13:09

    Adam Erne hit John Leonard

    ·

    DAL 3·DET 2

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

22

Shots

25

40.0

PCT

66.7

6

PIM

10

27

Faceoffs W

29

8

Blocks

16

15

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -125/DET +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Dylan LarkinDET · C
    DIST MI243.094

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR