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FINAL+3NYI
COL

COL

19-2-6

36
NYI

NYI

15-10-3

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLThu, Dec 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -185

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Colorado Avalanche, 6–3.

NYI +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Martin Necas

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

NYI
Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
COL19-2-6NYI15-10-3
COL

COL

19-2-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYI

NYI

15-10-3

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 17NYINYI1@COLCOL4
Dec 5COLCOL3@NYINYI6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-18565%
NYINYI+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat COL 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL0213
NYI2316

Period scoring

COL won 0 · NYI won 2

0
2

1

2
3

2

1
1

3

COL
NYI

Play-by-play · 326 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 3·NYI 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 3·NYI 6

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Josh Manson Unsportsmanlike conduct against Scott Mayfield

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 6

  4. 3rd·19:29

    Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 6

  5. 3rd·18:45

    Mathew Barzal faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 6

  6. 3rd·18:45

    Casey Cizikas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none

    COL 3·NYI 6

  7. 3rd·18:42

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    COL 3·NYI 5

  8. 3rd·18:34

    Casey Cizikas shot blocked by Cale Makar

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  9. 3rd·18:32

    Victor Olofsson Snap Shot Short

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  10. 3rd·18:14

    Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  11. 3rd·18:06

    Nathan MacKinnon Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  12. 3rd·17:45

    Gabriel Landeskog Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  13. 3rd·17:22

    Takeaway by Cale Makar

    COL 3·NYI 5

  14. 3rd·17:11

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  15. 3rd·17:11

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 3·NYI 5

  16. 3rd·17:09

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  17. 3rd·16:59

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Bo Horvat

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  18. 3rd·16:47

    Artturi Lehkonen Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  19. 3rd·16:46

    Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Ryan Pulock

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  20. 3rd·16:42

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  21. 3rd·16:42

    Scott Mayfield Tripping against Martin Necas

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  22. 3rd·16:38

    Emil Heineman hit Victor Olofsson

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  23. 3rd·16:33

    Scott Mayfield hit Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  24. 3rd·16:30

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Scott Mayfield

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  25. 3rd·16:22

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  26. 3rd·16:22

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    COL 3·NYI 5

  27. 3rd·16:06

    Parker Kelly Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  28. 3rd·15:50

    Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  29. 3rd·15:44

    Mathew Barzal faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 3·NYI 5

  30. 3rd·15:44

    Icing

    COL 3·NYI 5

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

38

Shots

42

0.0

PCT

25.0

10

PIM

6

30

Faceoffs W

25

12

Blocks

20

16

Giveaways

10

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -185/NYI +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Ryan PulockNYI · D
    SHOT MPH103.099+

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · NYI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR