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FINAL+1DAL
DAL

DAL

21-5-5

43
WPG

WPG

14-14-1

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLTue, Dec 9FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -148

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 4–3.

WPG +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Mikko Rantanen

Mikko Rantanen

RW · #96

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Kyle Connor

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
DAL21-5-5WPG14-14-1
DAL

DAL

21-5-5

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

14-14-1

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Oct 10DALDAL5@WPGWPG4
Dec 10DALDAL4@WPGWPG3today
Feb 3WPGWPG3@DALDAL4
Apr 3WPGWPG0@DALDAL3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DALDAL-14860%
WPGWPG+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat WPG 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DAL1214
WPG0213

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · WPG won 0

1
0

1

2
2

2

1
1

3

DAL
WPG

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  3. 3rd·19:36

    Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Josh Morrissey

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  4. 3rd·19:30

    Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  5. 3rd·18:38

    Radek Faksa faceoff won against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  6. 3rd·18:38

    Timeout - Home

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  7. 3rd·18:38

    Goalie Stopped

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  8. 3rd·18:36

    Mark Scheifele Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  9. 3rd·17:30

    Radek Faksa faceoff won against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  10. 3rd·17:30

    Mikko Rantanen Tripping against Kyle Connor

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  11. 3rd·17:08

    Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  12. 3rd·17:08

    Puck in Netting

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  13. 3rd·17:06

    Mark Scheifele Tip-In High and Wide Right

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  14. 3rd·16:15

    Kyle Connor shot blocked by Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  15. 3rd·16:09

    Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  16. 3rd·16:09

    Icing

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  17. 3rd·15:59

    Dylan DeMelo shot blocked by Kyle Capobianco

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  18. 3rd·15:41

    Nino Niederreiter Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  19. 3rd·15:10

    Alexander Petrovic hit Josh Morrissey

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  20. 3rd·12:40

    Tanner Pearson shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  21. 3rd·12:09

    Luke Schenn hit Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  22. 3rd·11:56

    Mikko Rantanen Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  23. 3rd·11:19

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  24. 3rd·11:19

    Goalie Stopped

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  25. 3rd·11:17

    Jason Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  26. 3rd·11:01

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Morgan Barron

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  27. 3rd·11:01

    TV Timeout

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  28. 3rd·11:01

    Vladislav Namestnikov Hooking against Colin Blackwell

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  29. 3rd·10:28

    Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 4·WPG 3

  30. 3rd·10:01

    Giveaway by Mark Scheifele

    DAL 4·WPG 3

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

19

Shots

33

50.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

8

34

Faceoffs W

21

15

Blocks

10

17

Giveaways

15

5

Takeaways

6

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -148/WPG +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
    DIST MI282.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

WPG vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    3.9± 2.0high
  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    3.7± 1.8high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    2.7± 1.8high

Goals

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    0.6± 0.8high

Points

  • Mark ScheifeleWPG
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Matt DucheneDAL
    1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR