Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1FLA
FLA

FLA

23-18-3

32
OTT

OTT

20-19-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 10FinalSeriesFLA leads series 2-0VegasOTT -125

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 3–2.

FLA +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

FLA
Carter Verhaeghe

Carter Verhaeghe

C · #23

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux

RW · #28

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
FLA23-18-3OTT20-19-5
FLA

FLA

23-18-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

20-19-5

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

10

Season series

FLA leads series 2-0

Oct 11OTTOTT2@FLAFLA6
Jan 11FLAFLA3@OTTOTT2today
Mar 31OTTOTT3@FLAFLA6
Apr 9FLAFLA1@OTTOTT5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLAFLA+10549%
OTTOTT-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat OTT 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
FLA1113
OTT1012

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · OTT won 0

1
1

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

FLA
OTT

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    FLA 3·OTT 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    FLA 3·OTT 2

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Giveaway by Dylan Cozens

    FLA 3·OTT 2

  4. 3rd·19:34

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 2

  5. 3rd·18:56

    Eetu Luostarinen shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 2

  6. 3rd·18:43

    Anton Lundell shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 2

  7. 3rd·18:18

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 2

  8. 3rd·18:18

    Drake Batherson Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (23), Jake Sanderson (25)

    · ·

    FLA 3·OTT 2

  9. 3rd·18:06

    Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  10. 3rd·18:01

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Sam Bennett

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  11. 3rd·18:01

    Goalie Stopped

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  12. 3rd·18:00

    Fabian Zetterlund Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  13. 3rd·17:11

    Sam Reinhart Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  14. 3rd·16:23

    Niko Mikkola hit Thomas Chabot

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  15. 3rd·16:08

    Giveaway by Ridly Greig

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  16. 3rd·15:51

    A.J. Greer shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  17. 3rd·15:15

    Jordan Spence Slap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  18. 3rd·15:11

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  19. 3rd·15:11

    High Stick

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  20. 3rd·14:58

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Sam Reinhart

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  21. 3rd·14:58

    Off-side

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  22. 3rd·13:59

    Fabian Zetterlund Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  23. 3rd·13:53

    Gustav Forsling hit Shane Pinto

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  24. 3rd·13:47

    Aaron Ekblad Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  25. 3rd·13:27

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  26. 3rd·13:27

    Off-side

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  27. 3rd·12:36

    Drake Batherson Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  28. 3rd·12:27

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  29. 3rd·12:08

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    FLA 3·OTT 1

  30. 3rd·12:08

    TV Timeout

    FLA 3·OTT 1

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

21

Shots

19

50.0

PCT

0.0

12

PIM

10

28

Faceoffs W

33

6

Blocks

14

12

Giveaways

13

6

Takeaways

5

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +105/OTT -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497
  • Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
    SKATE MPH23.195
  • Sam BennettFLA · C
    DIST MI239.693
  • Jeff PetryMIN · D
    SHOT MPH95.690
  • Jesper BoqvistFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.188

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR